Rob Ford's Toronto

[TorontoDoh]

Council will appoint a replacement for Holyday, Ford loses yet another vote

 

[guitarchitect]

Council will appoint a replacement for Holyday, Ford loses yet another vote

and gains yet another talking point, another campaign line to hammer away, and another wedge in the "us vs. them, but you guys are all on my side" divide.
if council was acting as a whole it would have been better to let him have it so that he can't use it against them. but I guess that's not really how it works

 

[nfitz]

and gains yet another talking point, another campaign line to hammer away, and another wedge in the "us vs. them, but you guys are all on my side" divide.
if council was acting as a whole it would have been better to let him have it so that he can't use it against them. but I guess that's not really how it works

Probably depends on who they appoint though.

Is Etobicoke community council really going to appoint anyone who isn't right wing?

 

[animatronic]

Having political consultants and party connections doesn't make you a machine, it just makes you a professional politician. The quintessential machine politician of contemporary times is Chicago's Richard M. Daley who won six consecutive elections, usually with over 70% of the vote. Daley basically ran the city unchallenged for over two decades straight. He had the support of all of the major political forces in town from the unions to the business community to the city council. During his tenure he was essentially able to mould the city as he saw fit and further consolidate his power by talking control of various government functions (e.g. the school board), and handing out patronage appointments.

Ford, who won a single election with less that 50% of the vote, who has had a negative approval rating for most of his tenure, who can rarely get council let alone the business community or the unions to support his agenda, who's own police chief refuses to dispel rumours that he's tied to a criminal investigation, who will likely face the toughest reelection campaign in the history of the mega-city (including challenges by fellow conservatives), is not even in the same universe as a machine politician like Richard Daley. Ford simply doesn't have a machine. He has daddy's money and a lot of good will built up in his own ward, and some weak support from the C/PC who have essentially ignored Toronto in their own campaigns (and thus probably have poor data on the electorate). But no machine.

Your bias is showing through a bit. 47% in a multi-candidate municipal race is pretty massive. He won 30% more than the next candidate and as many votes as the next two combined. In any instant run-off scenario he would have won a majority. To go from a nothing councillor to win the election shows that he had a lot of back room support.

Your definition of "machine" is a governing machine - another comparator would be Davis' Big Blue in the 70s and 80s. That doesn't matter, because Ford has an election machine. He's clearly demonstrated complete inability to govern, but he doesn't need to keep anybody in line and he doesn't need to engage in horse-trading so long as he can nail down his 40% public support on election day. That's what the Ford Fest sign-up sheets, robo-polling, fridge magnets and radio shows are all about. He's got a three-year head start on the field, and that's a big gap to close. Ford's post-political innovation is to dispense with governing completely and just focus on the next election.

If you think that Ford lacks a backing infrastructure you'll be in for a shock next October (assuming that he somehow manages to avoid imploding). Stintz and Minnan-Wong lack infrastructure and cannot win. Tory is crippled. Chow can and will mount a sophisticated response, so that's where the fight will be.

 

[jje1000]

I think Ford's ability to mount an effective campaign will rest on whether or not the other conservatives see him as someone worth supporting and someone worth gathering about as opposed to an alternative candidate. The OPC, have clearly shown their support- but the CPC, I'm not 100% sure. His success will also rest on him gaining Kouvalis and Ciano and assembling an effective team- his mayoral team has already been torn apart once by his scandal and the question will be on whether or not people will want to join his team.

The same question can also be raised on the other candidates- can they assemble the right team?

Other than that, you're clearly right in not underestimating Ford. Candidates need to be wary- he's someone who finds the thrill in campaigning, and that's where his strengths lie. This forum currently engages in endless circular reasoning and nitpicking, and needs to be aware that a dofus supported by competents is capable of limitless things.

 

[sarnya]

and gains yet another talking point, another campaign line to hammer away, and another wedge in the "us vs. them, but you guys are all on my side" divide.
if council was acting as a whole it would have been better to let him have it so that he can't use it against them. but I guess that's not really how it works

Have we reached a point where we expect council to take pity on Rob Ford?

Every vote Rob Ford has some stake in riles up his base. If he wins, they use it to show his effectiveness and delivering on his "mandate." If he loses, it's not his fault and the hate spews out onto the internet.

 

[vic]

Your bias is showing through a bit. 47% in a multi-candidate municipal race is pretty massive. He won 30% more than the next candidate and as many votes as the next two combined. In any instant run-off scenario he would have won a majority. To go from a nothing councillor to win the election shows that he had a lot of back room support.

Not sure I'd say that 47% is "massive". It was a surprisingly strong showing though. Keep in mind that David Miller got 57% in 2006, so that was pretty "massive" too.

Also, Ford didn't get even close to 30% more than the next candidate. 11%, more like it. Ford = 47%, Smitherman = 36%, Pantalone = 12%.

I agree that Ford likely would have run in a runoff scenario.

 

[christiesplits]

I think Ford's ability to mount an effective campaign will rest on whether or not the other conservatives see him as someone worth supporting and someone worth gathering about as opposed to an alternative candidate. The OPC, have clearly shown their support- but the CPC, I'm not 100% sure. His success will also rest on him gaining Kouvalis and Ciano and assembling an effective team- his mayoral team has already been torn apart once by his scandal and the question will be on whether or not people will want to join his team.

I have a creeping suspicion that someone from the right on council will throw their hat in the ring. Probably Minnan Wong, who has clearly distanced himself from Ford in the last few months. He can siphon Ford's old supporters from Bay Street and CPC and market himself as the candidate of "small government and respect for taxpayers" without the baggage of "you know who."

 

[Johnny Au]

Albert Einstein once said that two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity and he is not sure about the former. This implies that human stupidity has no bounds.

Many people want human stupidity to be banned. However, it is impossible to ban human stupidity, hence human stupidity being the most infinite.

To true conservative voters: Ford is not a true conservative. He is a populist. Stintz is more of a conservative than Ford is. With regards to the inner suburbs, LRTs are both more socially progressive and more fiscally conservative than subways (especially when it comes to value and reach).

To Scarberians who want a subway: Scarborough has a subway since 1968! Subway extension can wait for increased population density and increased tax base to make it worthwhile to construct.

 

[animatronic]

Also, Ford didn't get even close to 30% more than the next candidate. 11%, more like it. Ford = 47%, Smitherman = 36%, Pantalone = 12%.

383,000 voted for Ford, which is 32% more than the 289,000 who voted for Smitherman.

 

[Silence&Motion]

Your bias is showing through a bit. 47% in a multi-candidate municipal race is pretty massive. He won 30% more than the next candidate and as many votes as the next two combined. In any instant run-off scenario he would have won a majority. To go from a nothing councillor to win the election shows that he had a lot of back room support.

Your definition of "machine" is a governing machine - another comparator would be Davis' Big Blue in the 70s and 80s. That doesn't matter, because Ford has an election machine. He's clearly demonstrated complete inability to govern, but he doesn't need to keep anybody in line and he doesn't need to engage in horse-trading so long as he can nail down his 40% public support on election day. That's what the Ford Fest sign-up sheets, robo-polling, fridge magnets and radio shows are all about. He's got a three-year head start on the field, and that's a big gap to close. Ford's post-political innovation is to dispense with governing completely and just focus on the next election.

If you think that Ford lacks a backing infrastructure you'll be in for a shock next October (assuming that he somehow manages to avoid imploding). Stintz and Minnan-Wong lack infrastructure and cannot win. Tory is crippled. Chow can and will mount a sophisticated response, so that's where the fight will be.

What exactly is my bias?

A political machine is a very specific social scientific concept that was established to explain the Democratic ruling elites in US cities, typically in the mid-20th century. If you are writing a paper for a fourth year political science course (which is how the topic was brought up), then you need to use the concept accurately. I repeat: winning a single election with less than 50% of the popular vote does not make you a "machine". Determining who will be the next mayor behind closed doors, and then having that candidate breeze through the general election without any credible challengers makes you a machine.

Edit: John Mollenkopf's book The Contested City does a good job in documenting the rise and fall Democratic political machines (or what he calls "progrowth coalitions") that dominated local politics in the mid-20th century.

 

[pw20]

What exactly is my bias?

A political machine is a very specific social scientific concept that was established to explain the Democratic ruling elites in US cities, typically in the mid-20th century. If you are writing a paper for a fourth year political science course (which is how the topic was brought up), then you need to use the concept accurately. I repeat: winning a single election with less than 50% of the popular vote does not make you a "machine". Determining who will be the next mayor behind closed doors, and then having that candidate breeze through the general election without any credible challengers makes you a machine.

Edit: John Mollenkopf's book The Contested City does a good job in documenting the rise and fall Democratic political machines (or what he calls "progrowth coalitions") that dominated local politics in the mid-20th century.

Saying someone has a machine isn't biased... they're just recognizing the obvious. I agree with you Silence - 47% was a strong victory and underestimating the Ford "machine" is at our own peril.

 

[jje1000]

So council has decided to appoint a replacement for Holyday. The Fords are clearly not pleased with this.

An interesting note though:

Yeah, I could have honestly gone either way on this. My understanding is that the actual by-election day would have been within the one-year window between then and the general election next year. So I kind of see it as a judgement call.
Clearly, council's decision was influenced by Rob Ford's absolutely naked desire to use this by-election to start his re-election campaign early (which he has frankly already done). Well, at least now him and Doug get to go on talk radio and angrily scream about how undemocratic council is and how they're the only ones in Toronto who care about democracy.
Seriously, one of Rob's arguments today was "A $225,000 by-election might save millions, because if we appoint someone they could spend like a drunken sailor". Rob doesn't actually care about democracy. He's voted for appointments before, in 2005. This was 100% all about campaigning for him.

http://www.reddit.com/r/toronto/com...ides_to_fill_vacant_seat_in_etobicoke/cbvnslm

"Let's call a spade a spade," says Ford. "The left wants to keep me off the campaign trail." "You can't stop me from campaigning," he adds.

Davis asks Ford if he'll campaign in Ward 3. Ford says "it's hard for me to say right now" whether he'll be campaigning.

Ford says he doesn't see why there's a problem if he gets involved in the byelection to support someone "like-minded" to him.

https://twitter.com/Graphicmatt

And of course:

Doug Ford also suggests that there will be back room deals and lobbying and special interest groups. And ghosts and goblins, I guess.

Back Room Deals?! Gee Doug, do you mean like trying sole source a complete redrawing of the Portlands! oops, that was WHO again?

https://twitter.com/shelleycarroll

 

[James_D]

So, apparently the arm-wrestling stunt was originally supposed to go a little differently. At one point Doug was going to run out and out Hogan in a sleeper hold to give rob the advantage but Hogan declined because he's recovering from back surgery. No big deal really. It's unsurprising that douggie wanted to be in on the stunt though.

As for robbie campaigning he openly declared that he was in full campaign-mode last year at the hot-dog handout soiree at his mom's house.

 

[DSC]

Chance to throw your hat(s) into the ring!
News Release

August 26, 2013

Vacancy for Office of Councillor in Toronto's Ward 3 Etobicoke Centre


Toronto City Council at its meeting today decided that the vacant office of Councillor Ward 3 Etobicoke Centre will be filled by appointment.

To be eligible for appointment to this office a person must be:
• a Canadian citizen
• at least 18 years of age
• a resident of the City of Toronto, or own or rent property in the City of Toronto (or be the spouse of the owner or renter) • not legally prohibited from voting, or from holding municipal office.

An information session will be held on Wednesday, September 25 from 7 to 9 p.m. in the Etobicoke Civic Centre, 399 The West Mall for anyone interested in being considered for the appointment.

Interested individuals must complete a Declaration of Qualification, Consent of Nominee and provide identification showing name, signature and qualifying address within the City of Toronto. Forms will only be distributed at the information session.

The deadline for filing an application is noon on Thursday, September 26, 2013 at the City Clerk’s Office, 100 Queen St. W., 2nd Floor.

Etobicoke York Community Council will hold a special meeting on Thursday, October 3 at 9:30 a.m. to hear from applicants, ask questions of applicants and recommend to Council its preferred candidate.

City Council will hold a special meeting on Thursday, October 10 at 9:30 a.m. to hear from applicants, ask questions of applicants and vote to appoint a person to fill the vacancy.

The successful applicant will serve the remainder of the term of office that ends on November 30, 2014.

For further information, contact Election Services at 416-338-1111 or visit http://www.toronto.ca/elections.