Rail: Ontario-Quebec High Speed Rail Study

[Whoaccio]

^

If you build the thing, you wont be able to say you will build it. You can't campaign on building a train if the thing is already built, can you?

 

[afransen]

Shanghai Maglev has a 268 MPH top speed (scheduled service), getting pretty close.

Top recorded maglev speed is 361 MPH, top recorded conventional high speed is 356 MPH

Tongue firmly in cheek. My point was what do they can trains faster than 300 mph? Super-duper high speed?

 

[waterloowarrior]

Tongue firmly in cheek. My point was what do they can trains faster than 300 mph? Super-duper high speed?

haha.. I misread your post

 

[kendrew]

Tongue firmly in cheek. My point was what do they can trains faster than 300 mph? Super-duper high speed?

Technically Maglev should be able to go faster since less investment is made into it compared to conventional rail (record was made 6 years ago for maglev too), but if we're talking about Canada, the extra 30-60 minutes saved won't be worth the cost. We'll probably end up getting trains that go 150mph albeit half a century later than most countries.

 

[dunkalunk]

I don't understand why Ontario and Quebec just don't launch the project on their own. The feds would be shamed in to contributing quite quickly if the project looked viable and they knew that their names were not going to be on it.

Its an admirable sentiment, but do the provinces of Ontario and Quebec have the money to do so, and would the Bank of Canada be so willing to shell out an infrastructure loan?

 

[kEiThZ]

Its an admirable sentiment, but do the provinces of Ontario and Quebec have the money to do so, and would the Bank of Canada be so willing to shell out an infrastructure loan?

The provinces can run their own deficits. If everyone believes this a commercially viable project, I don't see why the provinces should not be willing to fund it themselves. Given that we are looking at taking 5-10 years to build this at worst the hit would be about 3-4 billion a year for Ontario (most of the track is on our side, so we will be footing most of the bill). That's a few percentage points of the annual budget.

 

[MisterF]

Even before construction, the provinces could complete the EA, design the project, and acquire land without federal support. The more that gets done, the more pressure there will be for the feds to pay up.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Keithz:

Rail is mainly a federal are of jurisdiction - and the sector HSR that will have the most impact on - airlines - is also federally regulated. Also, at 5B a year, it constitute at least 5% of Ontario's GDP - not exactly trivial spending for a province in deficit. I think the most one can hope for is a committment from the provinces to pay for a chunk of the cost.

Which brings up to the bigger question - isn't one of the main raison d'etre of the Federal government being nation building, especially considering the history of the Confederation?

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Even before construction, the provinces could complete the EA, design the project, and acquire land without federal support. The more that gets done, the more pressure there will be for the feds to pay up.

Exactly.

Keithz:

Rail is mainly a federal are of jurisdiction - and the sector HSR that will have the most impact on - airlines - is also federally regulated. Also, at 5B a year, it constitute at least 5% of Ontario's GDP - not exactly trivial spending for a province in deficit. I think the most one can hope for is a committment from the provinces to pay for a chunk of the cost.

Which brings up to the bigger question - isn't one of the main raison d'etre of the Federal government being nation building, especially considering the history of the Confederation?

AoD

5 Billion a year is not 5% of our GDP:

http://www.2ontario.com/welcome/bcei_205.asp

It's barely 5% of the provincial budget. Ontario and Quebec can afford to do this alone. Rail only falls under the federal jurisdiction when it crosses inter-provincial boundaries. So in this case it does. However, it'll be quite hard to sell the rest of Canada that this is a nation building exercise when it touches only two provinces and possibly the US.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Keithz

My mistake, I meant provincial budget. Which makes for an even stronger case for Federal involvement.

Rail only falls under the federal jurisdiction when it crosses inter-provincial boundaries. So in this case it does. However, it'll be quite hard to sell the rest of Canada that this is a nation building exercise when it touches only two provinces and possibly the US.

Why does it have to be "sold" to the rest of Canada, considering how many other Federal projects are purely local (not even inter-provincial) in nature, with absolutely NO impact at the national level? Like the Confederation Bridge to PEI - other than symbolic value, is there any real claim to national benefits, for example? The list goes on and on...if you want it.

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Keithz

My mistake, I meant provincial budget. Which makes for an even stronger case for Federal involvement.

How so? Do we expect the feds to help every province in deficit with their pet projects?

Why does it have to be "sold" to the rest of Canada, considering how many other Federal projects are purely local (not even inter-provincial) in nature, with absolutely NO impact at the national level? Like the Confederation Bridge to PEI - other than symbolic value, is there any real claim to national benefits, for example?

AoD

The original railroad, like the Confederation bridge was undertaken to 'tie' the country together. Without the original railroad there might well have been no Canada. But without HSR, Canada, Ontario and Quebec will survive just fine. It's harder to make the case that a HSR in only two provinces has national relevance when those provinces already have many existing links. The HSR will be seen and rightfully so as an upgrade to an existing link. However, you cut it, that's what is. That does not mean it's not a wothy project, but you have to understand right now why a MP from Labrador or one from Saskatchewan might be reluctant to vote for this.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Keithz:

How so? Do we expect the feds to help every province in deficit with their pet projects?

Actually, don't they already - except when there are projects that are worth funding? Hell, they are even doing that for provinces that doesn't have budget deficits.

The original railroad, like the Confederation bridge was undertaken to 'tie' the country together. Without the original railroad there might well have been no Canada. But without HSR, Canada, Ontario and Quebec will survive just fine. It's harder to make the case that a HSR in only two provinces has national relevance when those provinces already have many existing links. The HSR will be seen and rightfully so as an upgrade to an existing link. However, you cut it, that's what is. That does not mean it's not a wothy project, but you have to understand right now why a MP from Labrador or one from Saskatchewan might be reluctant to vote for this.

It wasn't like PEI wasn't "tied" to the country with the ferries? Like I've said, just what is the national level benefit from the bridge? None, zilch - PEI would have survived without it just fine. Whereas HSR between two largest provinces, along a corridor containing what, 30+% of the Canadian population and a similiar percentage of industrial activity, is not "nationally relevant"?

And I am afraid you will have to come up with a better excuse than "an MP from Labrador might be relectant to vote for this" - you and I both know that our political system is based on executive decision-making (unlike the US) - and our parties are highly disciplined. Are you claiming that the ruling part(ies) will have trouble getting the vote they need if it is considered to be a priority by the PM/Cabinet? And besides, spending on any HSR is embedded in the budget bill - who is going to vote against that?

AoD

 

[kEiThZ]

Actually, don't they already - except when there are projects that are worth funding? Hell, they are even doing that for provinces that doesn't have budget deficits.

I don't see that. I mean other than the health/social transfer, gas tax transfers the feds have rather limited involvement in provincial projects. And this case will be particularly peculiar. While they can dole out money for transit across the land, there is no case to be made for doling out money for HSR far and wide. So what happens when Halifax demands equal treatment asks us to extend the HSR from Quebec City and the ridership isn't there to support it?

It wasn't like PEI wasn't "tied" to the country with the ferries? Like I've said, just what is the national level benefit from the bridge? None, zilch - PEI would have survived without it just fine. Whereas HSR between two largest provinces, along a corridor containing what, 30+% of the Canadian population and a similiar percentage of industrial activity, is not "nationally relevant"?

Connections in the Maritimes were often conditions for those provinces joining confederation. The Bridge is a significant upgrade that did tie in PEI. If you've been to the East Coast recently, you know that maritimers visit PEI a lot more owing to bridge than they did when it was the dinghy that was referred to as a ferry. Heck, there are far more Ontarians and Quebecers who visit PEI because of that bridge.

Conversely, will there by significant numbers of Maritimers using our HSR? I doubt it. If you wanna go to Toronto from Fredicton, you aren't going to be driving over to Quebec City to grab the HSR.

Using the 30% of the population argument is also a weak one. By that definition the federal government should pay for virtually every Ontario-Quebec project including the 401 and our inter-provincial power transmission connections.

And I am afraid you will have to come up with a better excuse than "an MP from Labrador might be relectant to vote for this" - you and I both know that our political system is based on executive decision-making (unlike the US) - and our parties are highly disciplined. Are you claiming that the ruling part(ies) will have trouble getting the vote they need if it is considered to be a priority by the PM/Cabinet?

Yet, why then did we not get any serious push for HSR with the last two Liberal PMs? They were flush with cash. Their party was ideologically pre-disposed towards HSR. And the project would have benefited their two best vote banks: Ontario and Quebec. And I would argue the last one is exactly why it'll be hard to get federal involvement in HSR. Say what you like, but there is no PM that is going to push through billions for a project that will be exclusively the purview of Ontario and Quebec. I wish it weren't that way but I think that's reality. Imagine the anger out west when they get nothing (unless we announce a simultaneous Calgary-Edmonton link). And imagine the anger out east when they announce that the line won’t be extended into the Maritimes. Party discipline maybe nice and all, but no MP wants to go down with the ship and no PM is going to out of his way to jeopardize all his/her MPs in an entire region.

All I am arguing is that the Ontario and Quebec governments should get going on the project. There is no need to wait for federal involvement. As usual the feds will probably jump in later with some piddling amount (15-20% or so I'd think). And we really have no excuses on this front. Both the federal Liberals and the Conservatives have disappointed us, yet the provincial government refuses to show leadership and get the project started on its own.

 

[waterloowarrior]

Yet, why then did we not get any serious push for HSR with the last two Liberal PMs? They were flush with cash. Their party was ideologically pre-disposed towards HSR. And the project would have benefited their two best vote banks: Ontario and Quebec. And I would argue the last one is exactly why it'll be hard to get federal involvement in HSR. Say what you like, but there is no PM that is going to push through billions for a project that will be exclusively the purview of Ontario and Quebec.

We were going to get a High Speed Rail system with Chretien/David Collenette, there was even some funding for initial upgrades, but Paul Martin put a stop to things when he became PM.

 

[dunkalunk]

If we tie other important infrastructure projects into the same bill, there would be no reason for MPs from other provinces to refuse. Cascadia and Alberta High Speed Rail, Wind Power, Tidal Power ect.

It should also be noted that if the system is operated by VIA, or another newly designated national rail service, that the profits made from a high speed connection would go towards operating trains which would not necessarily turn a profit. Such lines include those in the Atlantic provinces, Northern Ontario (Ottawa to Thunder Bay via Sault)
Restoring rail service to Regina and Calgary.

Also adding local short line service (not necessarily, but preferably trains) to communities in the corridor such as Sherbrooke, Peterborough, Welland, Owen Sound, ect. will help boost ridership across the high speed rail network.

[edit] Its also important to note that the MPs in areas with proposed high speed rail projects outnumber those without. So if they don't like it, tough cookies. (I can hear Danny Williams in my head right now)