'Quebec Seperation Unstoppable'

[MetroMan1000]

Toronto Star:

Gagliano says Martin will 'destroy' Canada

MONTREAL — Former public works minister Alfonso Gagliano said today that Prime Minister Paul Martin has taken Canada and the federal Liberal party down the road to ruin.
"He's going to destroy the party and break up the country," Gagliano said during an interview with Radio-Canada, the French-language network of the CBC.
He said Quebec sovereignty is inevitable after the revelations at Justice John Gomery's inquiry into the sponsorship program once headed by Gagliano — and if the Conservatives replace the minority Liberal government.
"It's a question of time," said Gagliano, who was prime minister Jean Chrétien's Quebec lieutenant.
"Of course, if (Quebec Liberal Premier Jean) Charest makes a miracle and forms a second government, it could possibly be put off. But I think that at this stage, the separation of Quebec from Canada is not stoppable. It's a question of time. It's going to happen."
The Gomery inquiry was ordered by Martin last year after a report by federal auditor general Sheila Fraser found irregularities in the sponsorship program set up under Chrétien to promote national unity.
The inquiry has heard that sponsorship money was funnelled to Liberal-friendly ad firms in Quebec in exchange for contributions to the bankrupt Quebec wing of the party.
Gagliano, who was recalled as ambassador to Denmark by Martin, made no apologies for the revelations at the inquiry but denied allegations by former Quebec Liberal organizer Benoit Corbeil that volunteers were paid by the Groupaction Marketing firm.
Gagliano said it was his understanding that the party paid the volunteers.
He also wondered why the sponsorship inquiry did not investigate how Martin financed his own run for the Liberal leadership.
"Certain communications firms that were close to Mr. Martin, Earnscliffe to be exact, took in . . . millions of dollars," Gagliano said.
He said there was nothing scandalous in the sponsorship program to his knowledge.

 

[MetroMan1000]

The hell with it! Let them split and see how long they last without Ontario's dollars. Could they even form a military? What kind of resources would Quebec have to support a country of their own?

Is this something you guys think is foreseeable or is Gagliano just being an alarmist? Has there been any polling into this issue? Is there really a majority of Quebecers who want to seperate from Canada?

 

[bizorky]

And Gagliano's funny business has been good for the country?


Ya. Sure.

 

[ganjavih]

Gagliano's only trying to distract the public from his naughty behaviour.

 

[jamerinbow]

It's hyperbole. Just because Quebeckers are as disgusted with Liberal corruption as we are, and have a different party to turn to, doesn't mean that these same voters will support separation. There's always been a sharp difference between support for the PQ and support for sovereignty.

The earliest a separatist referendum could be called is roughly 2007. You know a week is a lifetime in politics, so two years is an epoch. Any talk of Quebec separation makes a number of very big assumptions.

1. That Charest will lose the next election. That he can't turn things around in his province or, failing that, turn things over to one of his more popular ministers.

2. That the federal Liberals, if they're defeated, haven't regrouped and elected a charismatic new leader to face down a minority Conservative government.

3. That the Conservatives, if they're still firmly in power, haven't come up with a convincing answer to separatism.

These are hardly guarantees. We're just living in some interesting times politically here in Canada. Other democratic nations have experienced far more turmoil and have still held it together. The sun will continue to rise in the east. Have a good, long drink and relax.

...James

 

[MetroMan1000]

(comes back from the drink)

uh.. but doesn't the sun rise in the West? humm... see! Drinking and Directions don't mix!

Very good analysis James.

Unfortunately, I wasn't in Canada during the Quebec Seperatist crisis so I'm still very uncertain if it could happen to haunt us again. Considering it was very very close the last time around, something like this seems like a credible way to push over the teetering sovereignty.

However, your explanation has put things in a more realistic perspective and I think Canadian politics will have a chance to regain balance by the time any referendum on sovereignty is called.

 

[cacruden]

He is trying to shift blame -- the majority of the blame lies with this guy (and the Chretien). Many more liberals are implicated -- but there are always a few leaders -- without which these scandals would not have happened.

Seperatism ebbs and flows in Quebec, and I have no doubt that they will eventually succeed -- but laying the blame with Martin is -- stupid.

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

The article is correct in that right now, there is a chance that if Charest goes out in the next provincial election (which is likely considering his support sits around 25% at the momment), and there is still a minority government (wether it be Liberals or Tories) and Duceppe and Landry have continued to very quietly push forward that it could happen.

There are also other factors such as the fact that in the 80 and 95 you had Trudeau and Chretien who were strong supporters of federalism and were willing to fit tooth and nail to stop Quebec from seperating. This time around, it will probably be Martin or Harper and neither one of them has even close to the same federalist zeal that the past governments did. The sponsorship scandal only adds to this since they 'funny' tricks they pulled off last time (such as donating 9 times the amount of money to the Non compaign then was allowed by Quebec Election laws, busing in Ontarians to rally on behalf of the Yes side, etc) us unlikely to happen this time around with money and such affairs being watched so closely now.

In politics anything can happen and it is 2 or 3 years away so who knows, but support for seperatism in Quebec has never really died and at the momment, though there is not a lot of discussion in the media, there is a lot of disucssion among citizens who really disagree with the direction that Canada is taking.

And if they do succeed, I dont think Quebec will fall upon this doom and gloom scenario as many say. They money they recieve in transfer payments can easily be made up by increasing energy exports or even that might not have to be done since they as we speak are on route to receiving less and less in transfer payments. Quebec has been developing its own economy independent of Canada for quite some time and while all economies on North America are tied together to a certain point Quebec sits moer comfortable then most people give them credit for.

The only reason that seperation might recieve outside opposition that will stop it, energy, since with Quebec producing almost all of its energy through hydro and wind it would really hurt Canada in terms of Kyoto since if they left, they lose a lot of clean, pollution free energy.

 

[Fighting Madd]

I say let Quebecers vote in another referendum. If they vote for independence, we should let them go, and build something new along the lines of the European Union. Each province or region makes its own rules and alliances, with a overall Brussels-like capital in Ottawa.

Canadians will all survive a yes vote in Quebec. In my opinion, it would be a refreshing change to allow Quebec and the provinces free will to do as it pleases.

Of course what the British should have done is followed up on the Acadian Expulsion of 1755 by immediately evicting all the French after the 1763 Treaty of Paris, which ended the Seven Years War and ceded all of Canada to the British. The French population has been little but trouble in Canada ever since, always complaining, demanding special status while securing leadership of the country almost every time since Pearson.

Of course, the remaining English and German speaking populations may well have joined in with the American rebellion of 1776. Then we'd have one big US of A, which has its obvious downsides.

 

[blixa442]

It won't be the end of the world if they separate (neither for them or Canada). I think we would see a massive influx of Quebeckers into to Canada though... Although no doubt they do have a distinct culture from the rest of the country I don't see what exactly will they achieve other than a different colour on the map if they secede.

 

[CanadianNational]

Even if Quebec decides to secede at some soon-or-distant point, the next question is 'how much of it'?
I suppose most of Montreal would go and chunks of the Province northward and along the St. Lawrence...but during the last crisis, the Aboriginal population with their claims to land in the north stated plainly that they wanted to remain in Canada proper. Then there would be Canada vs. Quebec and founding land claims, etc. Of course the giant northern hydro developments would factor in as well.
The idea of Quebec separating as one cohesive entity are not certain - and make the whole idea more fascinating, I think. How small might it end up?

 

[badga416]

I have always wondered what the motivation of the Quebeckers to separate is if you take the sheer emotion out of the issue.

They would move from a province within a country that both formally and informally to some extent respects French language and culture and become a country that is surrounded by one country which would likely have little patience left for French culture and another that has never cared much for the French language notwithstanding France's support for their own independence.

I wonder whether Canada would retain all of the regulations and laws surrounding the two official languages if Quebec separated. There is an economic cost to doing so that would not be as justified as it is today.

As someone noted above we live in interesting times.

 

[EnviroTO]

If Quebec Separation is Unstoppable then perhaps Toronto Separation isn't so far fetched.

 

[BrianHawkins1]

"I have always wondered what the motivation of the Quebeckers to separate is if you take the sheer emotion out of the issue."

There isn't one. It's about ethnic nationalism, period.

"There are also other factors such as the fact that in the 80 and 95 you had Trudeau and Chretien who were strong supporters of federalism and were willing to fit tooth and nail to stop Quebec from seperating. This time around, it will probably be Martin or Harper and neither one of them has even close to the same federalist zeal that the past governments did."

Trudeau was, of course, a "strong supporter of federalism", but Chretien's efforts to combat the separatists in '95 were lacking to say the least - he very, very nearly fiddled while the country burned, and hardly fought "tooth and nail" to save the nation, regardless of his political philosophy. Harper would probably be essentially indifferent or possibly even encouraging towards Quebec separating, but I don't think there's any reason to believe that Martin would fight it with any less conviction than Chretien did - not that that's saying much. I'm no Martin fan, but what evidence is there that he believes less in the country as it is, and in federalism, than his predecessors?

 

[Antiloop33rpm]

I have always wondered what the motivation of the Quebeckers to separate is if you take the sheer emotion out of the issue."

I think that all depends on who you talk to. For those living in the more Northern parts of Quebec, and regions such as Lac St-Jean, Rimouski, Baie Coumea, Gaspe, etc there tends to be a lot of historical reasoning with the Acadian deportations and with the initial founding of Canada itself. For some it has to do with a furstration of the federal government and Prime Ministers such as Trudeau and Chretien who found it so necessary to do whatever they could to keep Quebec in the country, even if it ment disrupting provincial matters. For some it has to do with the ideas that developed out of the Silent Revolution and wanting to ensure that the social advancements made are not eroded away and lost (the sutdent protests this winter are a strong example of the lengths that citizens are willing to go to protect such aspects as their education system which is deffinetely one of Quebecs best achievments and assets). There are younger citizens who see seperation as a way of being able to take control over a slow homogenization of North American society, not simpley wanting to be another rubber stamp province or state with rubber stamp cities.

Ultimately it just comes down to wanting to have the control and power to shape Quebec society as they see fit and to protect the society they have. (It is much the same as Toronto wanting more powers to operate as they need to. If one day Toronto finds itself too restricted in its abilities it may want to become a city-state which is in effect seperation from the province. I wonder how many people who are against Quebec seperating would be against that change?)

I think it is hard to discuss this topic without going into extreme length and detail since there a lot of issues that surround it. Like most things in life, it is hardly a simpley 'reason A, reason B' thats its situation that can be easily understood.

Personally, if seperation did happen, it would not be doom and gloom and destroy Canada. It would change it no doubt, but for the most part life would go on and the country(s) would simpley adapt to the situation, learning as they go, and add a new dynamic to Canada.

It is a hard issue not to have strong feelings about (from either side) but I think if those from the rest of Canada and those from Quebec could sit down and actually learn what the other thinks about the situation, it would far more productive than the English bashing Quebecers as freeloaders who want to destroy Canada, and Quebecers who see english Canada as using and manipulating them and trying to interfere in the direction they want their society to take.

Borders are created and erased all the time. North America is unlikely to remain exactly as it is forever. This kind of political change would deffinetely add a new dynamic to North America and I dont think the effects would be bad at all.