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Premier Kathleen Wynne and What Her Election Means for Transit

gweed123 said:
I think whether or not an election is called really depends on the NDP. Since Wynne is centre-left anyway, it'll be easier for her to 'cave to demands' from the NDP in return for propping her up. Until the polls show a realistic chance of the NDP forming government, I think we'll see the Liberals in power propped up by the NDP.
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I agree, but I'll also add that it looks as if Wynne may end up draining support from the NDP. This would lead the NDP to not want an election call because they would lose seats/influence after it.
 
gweed123 said:
I think whether or not an election is called really depends on the NDP. Since Wynne is centre-left anyway, it'll be easier for her to 'cave to demands' from the NDP in return for propping her up. Until the polls show a realistic chance of the NDP forming government, I think we'll see the Liberals in power propped up by the NDP.
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Is it "caving to demands" if you, personally, are leaning that way anyway? As you said, she seems to be more left-centre than right-centre anyway? It is all semantics, I know, but she may be (likely is) far more in line with how the NDP see the future than how Hudak sees it or, potentially, how McGuinty saw it.
 
gweed123 said:
I think whether or not an election is called really depends on the NDP. Since Wynne is centre-left anyway, it'll be easier for her to 'cave to demands' from the NDP in return for propping her up. Until the polls show a realistic chance of the NDP forming government, I think we'll see the Liberals in power propped up by the NDP.
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I agree ... but I don't expect the polls to suddenly show the Liberals in solid-majority territory.

However if they were to show that (which I doubt will happen), then I'd expect the Liberals to trigger an election. But if not, then we're good until 2015, or possibly even early 2016.
 
Juan_Lennon416 said:
While Andrea has stated that she does not want an election, do the NDP MPPs and supporters want one?
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If the New Democrats called an election it would be a pretty big gamble for them since they're dead last in the polls. So them calling for an election would be unlikely.

Plus Wynne is centre-left and the NDP is able to work with her fairly well. Would the NDP want to risk having the Liberals lose and having the right wing Conservative party that they can't work with in power? I doubt it.

I think an election is off the table at the moment.
 
Juan_Lennon416 said:
Which polls are you referring to? I thought the Liberals were dead last
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308.com is pretty good at turning polls into seats. They've called a number of elections within a few percent of the actual vote.

http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/02/three-way-race-in-ontario.html

While it's very close the Liberals had been gaining ground since December and now lead if you believe Innovative Research most recent poll is enough for evidence (it's a small sample). Once we get number from a couple more polling companies we'll know for certain where things are.

Worth mentioning, the Liberals did better than expected in the last 3 Ontario elections; so the error bars are in their favour.

Also worth mentioning is that Kathlene will enjoy a bit of a honeymoon phase which will temporarily bump Liberal numbers.
 
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TheTigerMaster said:
Might be relevant to the discussion. Polls show that if an election were held today the Liberals would win. If this continues it means that a 2013 election is likely off the table.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/..._spells_out_todo_list_for_kathleen_wynne.html
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If an election were held soon, then Wynne would have to run on the Liberal record of the past years - which is fiscally atrocious and not much better on other files. The only thing saving the Liberals is that their supporters do not expect much more than mediocrity from the party. They are in the midst of a slow fall , similar to what happened federally.

The best the Liberals could hope for would be another minority government, and the worst is that they fall to 3rd place status (as happened federally).

The Conservatives could win a majority, win a minority, or remain the second party with a Liberal minority – essentially, they have nothing to lose.

The NDP would most likely improve their seat total, but become second to a Conservative majority or minority. They could also leapfrog over the Liberals and be the stronger of the two. They could also end up similar to where they are now – with a Liberal minority (probably a bit weaker), and still holding the balance of power.

If I were a Dipper, I would probably go with those odds.

If the election were delayed, Wynne could run on her own record, which most likely can be no worse than the Liberal record now, so the changes from the above scenario would be that a Liberal majority would become possible and there would be more possibilities of the NDP being irrelevant.
 
TOareaFan said:
Is it "caving to demands" if you, personally, are leaning that way anyway? As you said, she seems to be more left-centre than right-centre anyway? It is all semantics, I know, but she may be (likely is) far more in line with how the NDP see the future than how Hudak sees it or, potentially, how McGuinty saw it.
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I meant it as kind of a "twist my rubber arm" sort of thing, haha. But I agree, it's a lot easier to come to a compromise when you're pretty close together to begin with.


BurlOak said:
If an election were held soon, then Wynne would have to run on the Liberal record of the past years - which is fiscally atrocious and not much better on other files. The only thing saving the Liberals is that their supporters do not expect much more than mediocrity from the party. They are in the midst of a slow fall , similar to what happened federally.

The best the Liberals could hope for would be another minority government, and the worst is that they fall to 3rd place status (as happened federally).

The Conservatives could win a majority, win a minority, or remain the second party with a Liberal minority – essentially, they have nothing to lose.

The NDP would most likely improve their seat total, but become second to a Conservative majority or minority. They could also leapfrog over the Liberals and be the stronger of the two. They could also end up similar to where they are now – with a Liberal minority (probably a bit weaker), and still holding the balance of power.

If I were a Dipper, I would probably go with those odds.

If the election were delayed, Wynne could run on her own record, which most likely can be no worse than the Liberal record now, so the changes from the above scenario would be that a Liberal majority would become possible and there would be more possibilities of the NDP being irrelevant.
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I think it's fair to say that both the NDP and the Liberals (as well as their supporters) would rather see the parties govern in a quasi-coalition than have the PCs in control. The NDP won't take down the Liberals until they're sure that they can hold at least a minority government. Until that time, I think they'll continue to prop them up. Politically, it's a smart thing to do as well, because they don't have to make any of the tough decisions. They can interject a couple of their 'stipulations' into any policy discussion, without having to suffer any significant negative backlash as a result of said policy. Naturally, their 'stipulations' would be things that would be favourable to their base (ex: the additional tax on those making over $500K that was part of the last budget).

Really, the only party that is chomping at the bit to have an election is the PCs, because they know that their support is going to stay steady or go up. The only person in the party who has anything to lose is Hudak (2 unsuccessful campaigns? You're out). I think both the NDP and the Liberals realize that the most likely outcome of any election at this point is pretty much the status quo, plus or minus a few shifted seats.

Until the polls show anything different, I think it'll be steady as she goes.
 
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Juan_Lennon416 said:
Thanks for the information ttk77 and rbt. It is now clear to me that the NDP would not want to have an election anytime soon.
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Most Recent Poll: Liberals 24%, PC 23%, NDP 20%

Last Election 2011: Liberals 38%, PC 35%, NDP 23% (mayjor parties = 96% of vote)

Most Recent Poll Prorated: Liberals 34%, PC 33%, NDP 29% (mayjor parties = 96% of vote)

How could the NDP not think they would be in a better position after an immediate election than they are in right now.
 
They might end up with more seats in the end, but the dynamic in the legislature would likely be little changed. Assuming those number translated to seats like they did in the last election you'd end up with a diminished but still sizable liberal minority propped up by the NDP. Horwath is going to want to take her time pushing for more leftist policies while trying to undermine the support of the Liberals in favour of the NDP.

They've been in power before, so they really have nothing to prove in terms of being a major player in the legislature. I doubt she'd want to topple the government until her popularity is good enough to win.... or maybe high enough to push the PCs into third place.
 
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