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Premier Dalton McGuinty resigns

MetroMan said:
If I were to predict within the current crop of contenders so far in consideration, I'd say that Wynne has it in the bag. I'd like her as a Premier but I'm not sure I'm comfortable with her chances of winning in a general election. Ontarians don't seem to like to elect women as leaders. It's strange but its a fact.
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I agree that Wynne is the most logical pick. I think the Liberals need to run from the left plank as opposed to right. Horwath increased the NDP vote share to the highest percentage since 1990. She was also the most well-liked of the leaders. Having a recognizable and experienced female cabinet minister who has avoided any fingers in the recent Liberal scandals seems to be the best bet.

As far as ex-cabinet ministers like Smitherman, Kennedy or Bryant, I think the tarnished Liberal brand and risky political climate will make them pass. But I'm sure they'll be back in the scene at some point
 
MetroMan said:
Ontarians don't seem to like to elect women as leaders. It's strange but its a fact.
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Well, Ontarians aren't alone in this--the only general-elected woman leaders thus far in non-territorial Canada have been Catherine Callbeck in PEI and Alison Redford in Alberta. (And in both cases, the principal opponent also happened to be female.)

Edit: I forgot Kathy Dunderdale in Newfoundland. (And *one* of her principal opponents was female.)
 
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You also forgot Pauline Marois.

I agree that since the NDP is rising, the obvious thing for the Liberals to do is protect their left flank, and that would favour Kathleen Wynne But I can also tell you that the Conservatives will be salivating at the prospect of taking on a Lesbian who can easily be portrayed as being in the (teachers) unions' pockets.
 
mjl08, I think the Liberal brain-trust thinks they should run from the left as well. A strategic blunder of epic proportions. The Liberal party is dying at the Federal level for the exact same reason. They spend all their time worrying about the NDP when they should be running as far right-of-centre as tolerable. The further right the Liberal party runs the more successful they will be. The Harper Conservatives are in power precisely because Harper understands this dynamic. He is running as far left as his conservative base can tolerate. They have to vote for him even though his government has essentially run a Liberal agenda with a few dog bone conservative wedge issues like the gun registry thrown in.
 
TrickyRicky said:
mjl08, I think the Liberal brain-trust thinks they should run from the left as well. A strategic blunder of epic proportions. The Liberal party is dying at the Federal level for the exact same reason. They spend all their time worrying about the NDP when they should be running as far right-of-centre as tolerable. The further right the Liberal party runs the more successful they will be.
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Actually, Iggy was more Grit hawk than dove, i.e. a distinct right-establishment shift from Dion; in his first leadership race, he had the "Martins" while Rae had the "Chretiens". Trouble is, once Election 2011 came into play, Grit Central didn't know *how* to position him other than Sagely Professorial Saviour, or something like that.

If right now, it's the "run from the left" theme that's dominant, it's more by default of Justin Trudeau being the frontrunner--though yes, maybe a big pre-problem does lie in their making that "render the NDP redundant" face in the 1990s, and their face staying that way...
 
TrickyRicky said:
mjl08, I think the Liberal brain-trust thinks they should run from the left as well. A strategic blunder of epic proportions. The Liberal party is dying at the Federal level for the exact same reason. They spend all their time worrying about the NDP when they should be running as far right-of-centre as tolerable. The further right the Liberal party runs the more successful they will be. The Harper Conservatives are in power precisely because Harper understands this dynamic. He is running as far left as his conservative base can tolerate. They have to vote for him even though his government has essentially run a Liberal agenda with a few dog bone conservative wedge issues like the gun registry thrown in.
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Yup, there is a need for a center-right unapologetically pro-market party that is more socially liberal and less anti-intellectual than the Tories. The LPC has lost the luxury of saying to NDP voters "we're big and they're small."

I think if Dalton runs he would beat Justin Bieber. He has more substance and would out-hustle him organizationally.
 
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Good points all around. I guess the next question is whether or not a centrist or centre-right candidate will win the leadership? Duncan seems the only credible threat from the business wing of the party.

And of course you could argue that the Grits are doomed regardless. Maybe they'll throw in a safe sacrificial lamb to take one for the team. I see a Horwath government as likely as a Liberal government next session.
 
King of Kensington said:
Yup, there is a need for a center-right unapologetically pro-market party that is more socially liberal and less anti-intellectual than the Tories. The LPC has lost the luxury of saying to NDP voters "we're big and they're small."

I think if Dalton runs he would beat Justin Bieber. He has more substance and would out-hustle him organizationally.
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I do not think that Dalton would even consider running for the federal Liberals at this time, and I do not think that anyone would support him. His legacy is full of lies and scandals. It is just a diversion so that people discuss this instead of his record or his proroguing of the Legislature indefinitely.
 
mjl08 said:
Good points all around. I guess the next question is whether or not a centrist or centre-right candidate will win the leadership? Duncan seems the only credible threat from the business wing of the party.
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Actually, what's noteworthy is how moribund the old "Ontario Heartland" sensible-shoes tradition of the Liberals is (Bob Nixon et al)--at least, as a proving ground for future leadership...
 
Gerard Kennedy seems like an obvious choice. Glen Murray could be viable, but I do worry about his recent transplant status from Manitoba to Ontario. Maybe it doesn't matter.

In terms of scandal, ORNGE is an issue of not enough government oversight, not something the government did actively. Shutting down two gas hydro plants is a reaction to a gaping hole in the budget, not a "scandal" of sorts. They have made great strides toward advancing greener energy and the investments are worthwhile. I don't think the OLP is eaten alive with scandal, the situation Ontario faces is one of a worldwide economic shift. Manufacturing has been devastated in the past decade, and with it goes the tax base.

Tough choices will await anyone who wins power at Queens Park, regardless of what party meets that fate.
 
Brandon716 said:
Shutting down two gas hydro plants is a reaction to a gaping hole in the budget, not a "scandal" of sorts.
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Using several hundreds of million dollars to buy a couple of seats for the Liberals is the exact definition of scandal. I can understand cancelling another governments decision when a new party comes to power, but this was cancelling his own policy during a campaign.
 
I think Glen Murray would be a disaster - too ambitious and opportunistic. Kathleen Wynne, Gerard Kennedy and for that matter Eric Hoskins would be stronger as left flank candidates.

On the right besides Dwight Duncan I am drawing a blank.
 
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