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Political Landscape of Toronto (including Ward Boundary Review)

Jennifer Pagliaro‏: Breaking: The OMB has approved a new 47 ward boundary structure for Toronto, what council approved last November (with one minor change). Dismissed all other appeals. Story online soon.

47 wards means the addition of three councillors after the 2018 election. Opens up ward races downtown and one in North York. Likely to pit incumbents and Tory allies Palacio and Bailao against each other in Davenport with three wards collapsing into two in that part of downtown
 
Happy to see Mammo and Di Ciano lose their battle. The 'Draw The Lines' external review team was very transparent with a well publicized website and community consultations.

The strangest new ward has to be Ward 34 which merges current Ward 29 Toronto Danforth - held by Mary Fragedakis - and Rosedale of all places.

I'm hopeful that the new wards downtown lead to a bigger 'progressive' coalition to fight off the Holyday's and Jimmy K's. Other than George Smitherman, I don't think any high profile names have expressed their intent to run. I wouldn't be surprised if local TDSB trustees - typically springboards for council - Ausma Malik and Chris Moise run for one of the new seats.

My prediction is that Cressy runs in Ward 24 and KWT in Ward 25. This will leave Wards 21, 22 and 23 open.

I'm hopeful that the three new downtown wards will help tilt the balance of power leftward. Take a look at at Matt Elliot's council scorecard. There are a number of items: funding for libraries, community pools, extra revenue tools, the Gardiner replacement, climate change funding, etc. that were lost by five or less votes.
 
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Interesting that the OMB did approve this one change - even if it seems to have absolutely no effect.

(f) Smith Appeal
[10]
Mr. Smith’s appeal was based on one discrete issue.
He submits that the boundary between RW 33 and RW 34 should be shifted to bring the area known as
“Crothers Woods” back into RW 33 where it existed prior to 2000.
Mr. Smith argues that his proposed change would have no impact on effective representation. Crothers Woods is a protected Environmentally Significant Area and no people live there and he submits that the changes should be made for historical reasons, with no impact on ward populations.
 
OMB approves 47 wards for Toronto for the 2018 election

Provincial tribunal backs council-approved redistribution of wards to balance population sizes after challenges from councillors and citizens.

From link.

There will be three more politicians seated in Toronto’s council chamber after the 2018 election.

In a decision released today, the Ontario Municipal Board agreed with a city council approved redrawing of ward boundaries, increasing the number of wards to 47 from 44.

The new boundaries would see four new wards created — three downtown and one in the North York neighbourhood of Willowdale. It would see one ward in the western part of downtown removed. Seven wards would see no boundary changes at all.

The OMB ruling came after two city councillors and several citizens appealed council’s 2016 decision to approve the 47-ward option recommended by third-party consultants.

The OMB was on the clock, with the city requesting the decision come no later than Dec. 31 to give the city clerk time prepare for the election.

At a more than week-long hearing in front of a three-member panel on the 16th floor of the OMB’s Bay St. office, those participating argued over the fate of how the city would be represented.

Bruce Engell, the Toronto lawyer representing Ward 5 (Etobicoke Lakeshore) Councillor Justin Di Ciano, built a case around concerns about the methodology used by the consultants and argued the board should impose a 25-ward structure also considered by council.

The city’s lawyer Brendan O’Callaghan said the board should not overturn a decision of council that took the advice of independent consultants after a multi-year review.

The city launched a review of ward boundaries in 2014, after the existing structure was challenged at the OMB.

The populations of the current wards are becoming increasingly unbalanced as growth is seen in urban centres and other pockets, the city-hired consultants found.

The aim in restructuring ward boundaries is to balance populations sizes across wards to achieve voter parity — a Supreme Court of Canada-backed principle that every residents vote should have equal weight.

The consultant’s 47-ward option looked to achieve that parity by 2026, with improvements towards that goal made in each election cycle based on population projections.

The position of the consultants, who presented their work to the board on behalf of the city, was that imposing 25 wards that followed federal riding boundaries would still create problems of voter parity while separating important neighbourhoods of interest.

The decision on Toronto’s ward boundaries comes just after the OMB rejected the plan approved by Hamilton’s council to make only minor changes to their own wards.

That council decision, the Hamilton Spectator reported, did not follow the advice from third-party consultants who presented options to rebalance Hamilton’s ward populations, leaving some councillors and concerned citizens accusing the majority of council of gerrymandering.

ci_wards10.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x564.jpg


Took them long enough. Now looking at the recent census, should see the next review in a couple of decades...
 
I am slightly annoyed that the area north of Eglinton between Yonge and Bayview are now a part of Jaye Robinson's Ward. Makes no sense to group us with Don Mills, Bridle Path or Lawrence Park.

I wonder if that means we are now part of North York Community Council.
 
[...] I wonder if that means we are now part of North York Community Council.

It will be interesting to see how the new Community Councils are structured after the next election.

But, yes, given that there are three new wards downtown, versus one in North York, I suspect Jaye will be staying on the North York Community Council.
 
It will be interesting to see how the new Community Councils are structured after the next election.

But, yes, given that there are three new wards downtown, versus one in North York, I suspect Jaye will be staying on the North York Community Council.

Maybe a potential bright side is that a whole bunch more younger, urban, condo dweller types start calling, writing, and visiting Robinson and that serves to pull her into this century.
 
I meant it sarcastically. It will be most interesting to see how the this coming change in political dynamic affect JT in the high likelihood that he returns.

AoD

Now the prognosticating can begin in earnest. To that end and in reference to an earlier post today, I'd count Bailao taking out Palacio as a net-win for progressives (and that's a race I'm fairly sure we can assume will happen). I've been frustrated by lots of Bailao's positions, but she's definitely better than old Cesar.

Other downtown comments:
> I'm interested to see where Cressy winds up running (I think a good case can be made for why he'd be likely to pick each of 24 and 20).
> Ditto for KWT (though I would think 22 would be more natural than 25). And if she does go 22, does 25 wind up being a "protect the neighbourhoods" Rosedale type, rather than a downtown progressive?
> If Cressy goes 24 (which is where he lives), who runs in 20? Is it a traditional, local, up-through-the-system type like one of the trustees, or do we get a name brand entrant there?
> Does Troisi honour the commitment not to run in 21? That's a ward that'll have a whole whack of density (of different types) and infrastructure added over the next 10 years, so it's an interesting area.

Here's the map of the new boundaries, from the Star article.

ci_wards10.jpg.size.custom.crop.850x564.jpg
 
I meant it sarcastically. It will be most interesting to see how the this coming change in political dynamic affect JT in the high likelihood that he returns.

AoD
Carmichael Greb voted in favour of the 47-ward proposal, which to me suggests that Tory actually was in favour of it.

He just had to vote against it to appease mid-town red-tory types that are his base, and to not give Doug Ford more ammunition.

It will be interesting to see how the new Community Councils are structured after the next election.

But, yes, given that there are three new wards downtown, versus one in North York, I suspect Jaye will be staying on the North York Community Council.
Maybe a potential bright side is that a whole bunch more younger, urban, condo dweller types start calling, writing, and visiting Robinson and that serves to pull her into this century.
As one of those types, I'm going to vote against her. Regressive councilor, rabidly anti-development and with one of the worst voting records on City Council. She would be a good councilor for Barrie Ontario, not for Toronto.
 
As one of those types, I'm going to vote against her. Regressive councilor, rabidly anti-development and with one of the worst voting records on City Council. She would be a good councilor for Barrie Ontario, not for Toronto.

Oh yeah, in 100% agreement; I was cynically already counting on her getting re-elected with an unsatisfactory vote share.
 

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