News   Jun 19, 2024
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News   Jun 19, 2024
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News   Jun 19, 2024
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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

New Abacus poll has Conservatives with a massive lead:

43% - CPC
24% - Liberal
18% - NDP


My impression is that this is not a surge of conservative inclination, nor Pollievre Mania; but simply that people are profoundly unimpressed by the Liberals the last few years, and the additional problem of Trudeau clearly overstaying his welcome.

The immigration/housing issue is top of mind for most; but you also have underwhelmed progressives, who see underfunded Healthcare, a broken promise on electoral reform, no real action on food costs or to drive wages higher, no promised expansion/reform of EI and/or Parental Leave; and what might arguably be the signature Liberal achievement of $10 per day childcare has yet to really be delivered on fulsomely, and benefits too few as well.

The Libs are even fumbling the new Federal Disability benefit they nominally created in law last year. The law left open the actual details of the program, including the level of benefit and when the program starts.

They just feel like their flailing. No clear mission, no clear goals; too many broken promises, too many self-inflicted wounds...

The NDP aren't benefiting because of association (w/the Libs), because Jagmeet has not set the world afire either, and because on the housing/immigration file they have yet to say anything meaningful.
 
It doesn't matter whether the leader is Justin Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland, or Melanie Joly, the Liberals will still be losing this badly in this environment. Interest rate hike are killing them and the economy. The economy has been shit for half of year, and people are paying thousands more for their mortgages, I expect the conservatives to be up 19% in the polls.

Look at the US, their economy is booming, however because of high interest rates, Joe Biden is losing to Donald Trump. Someone is has 4 criminal indictment against him. The Liberals better hope the bank of Canada cuts interest rates. They also need to pass the environment tax credit subsidies, so they can kick start the economy.
 

Are high interest rates and inflation to blame for the Liberals’ slide in polls?​


When did things start going so wrong for the Liberals?​



Support for the Conservatives took off this summer, just as the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates again after pausing its rate-hiking cycle earlier in the year.

“That was when people were starting to cycle through the first wave of mortgage renewals,” said Tyler Meredith, a former head of economic strategy and planning for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland.


Canadians renewing their mortgages this year are seeing higher monthly payments as they pay more in interest to finance their homes. That leaves less money on the table for everything else.

The federal government doesn’t actually set interest rates, but data suggest a close correlation between the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes and the bottom falling out of public support for the Liberals.

Even before this year’s spike, Abacus Data polling at the time suggested the Conservatives first started to overtake the Liberals after the central bank’s first post-pandemic rate hike in March 2022.

“I do think that was a turning point,” said David Coletto, the CEO of the Ottawa-based polling and market research firm.

But much of what the Liberals are experiencing is also a global phenomenon. Inflation has ravaged economies around the world, pushing central banks to aggressively raise interest rates and turning voters against incumbent governments.

Inflation is now falling in many of the same countries. Yet incumbent leaders are still struggling.

In the United States, President Joe Biden is near an all-time low in his approval rating. There, the inflation rate was 3.2 per cent in October, while the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate sits at about 5.4 per cent, the highest level in 22 years.

In the United Kingdom, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s approval rating has also plunged to a record low – even lower than that of Liz Truss, who had to resign after only 49 days in office.
 
I am very upset with the Federal government right now. In the 2023 Federal budget, the government introduced over 80 billion dollars worth of clean tax credits for businesses, and industry. It is our Country's answer in the US inflation reductions act, however not a single dime has been spent, because legislation has not been introduced.
Meanwhile, in the US, their inflation reduction act, has been a smash success, creating jobs right, left , and center.

These tax credits in Canada, has the opportunity is transform our economy, and create thousands of good paying jobs.
 
I am very upset with the Federal government right now. In the 2023 Federal budget, the government introduced over 80 billion dollars worth of clean tax credits for businesses, and industry. It is our Country's answer in the US inflation reductions act, however not a single dime has been spent, because legislation has not been introduced.
Meanwhile, in the US, their inflation reduction act, has been a smash success, creating jobs right, left , and center.

These tax credits in Canada, has the opportunity is transform our economy, and create thousands of good paying jobs.
Bill 47 that implemented the 2023 budget was passed and received Royal Assent in June 2023. The detailed Regulations may not have been approved, I have not checked, but the 2023 budget has been approved.
 
Bill 47 that implemented the 2023 budget was passed and received Royal Assent in June 2023. The detailed Regulations may not have been approved, I have not checked, but the 2023 budget has been approved.
The budget passed, but the clean tax credits needs legislation to enact them.
 
the additional problem of Trudeau clearly overstaying his welcome.
Debatable. If this was true, other potential Liberal leaders would poll much higher. They don't. I think it's less about Trudeau overstaying his welcome than the LPC seen as overstaying their time in office.

They just feel like their flailing.
They mostly are though. The contradiction between their housing and immigration policies is the most obvious example.

but you also have underwhelmed progressives
If this was actually true, the NDP would be polling much higher. I think what you're missing here is that what would be economic progressives in the past (working class voters) are now cultural conservatives. There's not as many progressives as you imagine. It's now a question increasingly facing left leaning parties. Do they choose social or economic progressives? For example, the left used to do great with immigrants. But all the recent trans rights talk don't sell with immigrant parents. I'm not sure what the answer is. Just highlighting a major problem for the left.
 
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“Inflation’s a cancer on government popularity, and there’s no easy treatment,” Coletto said.

Indeed, the treatment has been punishing in its own right. Central banks have responded to high inflation with hefty interest rate hikes that have made it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.


The Bank of Canada’s key interest rate currently sits at five per cent, the highest it has been since 2001.

Other then paying for peoples mortgages, there is nothing a government can do, when interest rates goes up.
 
It's not just monetary policy. The government was way too generous with COVID aid. Now we are paying for it. They continued their COVID aid policies long after they should aid. And then as those programs winded down, they ramped up immigration.
 
Other then paying for peoples mortgages, there is nothing a government can do, when interest rates goes up.

That's not at all true.

It depends on what outcome you wish to achieve, but there are many tools available, including those that would allow lower interest rates.

For instance, bumping the minimum down payment on a new home to 20% would certainly take some froth out of the market, as would banning short term rentals.

If the desire is to boost incomes, you can curtail labour supply, obviously, for a start, by cutting TFWs and Foreign Students, but one can also use labour regulation to that effect, (minimum wage, paid vacation standards etc.); now the federal standards, in Canada, only affect about 6% of the labour force, though, that alone is material, but clearly discussions can be had w/the province's on this point, and if needs be, Ottawa has the power of the purse to incent cooperation.

There are other even more heavy handed measures, which frankly aren't needed or desirable.
 
LOL Trudeau just lost the next election.


Millions of immigrants will all bring their bikes to work on GO.

I don't think that off-the-cuff Ministerial Statement will actually shift many votes.

The statement is essentially that the Feds will no longer finance new/significantly expanded highways.

That changes no existing commitments or existing roads.

Most of the people who would get vexed about it were never Trudeau voters in the first place.

He can't lose any more seats in Alberta, this won't cost him seats in Vancouver or Toronto proper or in Quebec; except maybe Quebec City, in theory, because of the third link project, but since
that isn't getting built anyways....
 
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