PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[Northern Light]

I think the PM has something much more worrying on his plate:

Canada’s largest banks report another big jump in mortgages longer than 25 years

As of July, 43% of RBC’s residential mortgages had amortization periods of more than 25 years, with TD reporting nearly half with the same length.

www.thestar.com

RBC reporting a whopping 43% of its mortgage portfolio now has has terms greater than 25 years.

 

[Northern Light]

Speaking of trouble...

A million more non-permanent residents live in Canada than official figures say, ministers told

The government has not been counting people who remain in the country after their visas expire, CIBC economist says

www.theglobeandmail.com

Canada, it would seem, now has a problem with 'illegal immigrants' based on VISA over-stays.

The estimate appears to 1M which is surprisingly close in scale/proportion to the issue in the :U.S. which is estimated to have 11.5 million people without legal status in the U.S.

Canada 2.5% of the population, 3.5% of the U.S. population.

 

[lenaitch]

Speaking of trouble...

A million more non-permanent residents live in Canada than official figures say, ministers told

The government has not been counting people who remain in the country after their visas expire, CIBC economist says

www.theglobeandmail.com

Canada, it would seem, now has a problem with 'illegal immigrants' based on VISA over-stays.

The estimate appears to 1M which is surprisingly close in scale/proportion to the issue in the :U.S. which is estimated to have 11.5 million people without legal status in the U.S.

Canada 2.5% of the population, 3.5% of the U.S. population.

"Now"?

 

[Richard White]

I think the PM has something much more worrying on his plate:

Canada’s largest banks report another big jump in mortgages longer than 25 years

As of July, 43% of RBC’s residential mortgages had amortization periods of more than 25 years, with TD reporting nearly half with the same length.

www.thestar.com

RBC reporting a whopping 43% of its mortgage portfolio now has has terms greater than 25 years.

If the rates go up much more we may yet see the bubble burst.

In a way, it may not be a bad thing. Yes it will kill the economy but it will also bring things such as house prices back down to earth.

With everyone overextending themselves with investment properties, increasing interest rates may force alot of these people to sell thereby dropping prices down and bringing more supply onto the market.

 

[Northern Light]

"Now"?

We've always had Visa over-stays; of course; but I don't recall any suggestion that the proportion of these, relative to population was anything like that seen in the U.S.

There is now a clear suggestion that we're at 60% of the U.S. proportionately.

I'm not sure what the number would have been 10 years ago, but I certainly would have imagined it to be lower.

 

[DSC]

We've always had Visa over-stays; of course; but I don't recall any suggestion that the proportion of these, relative to population was anything like that seen in the U.S.

There is now a clear suggestion that we're at 60% of the U.S. proportionately.

I'm not sure what the number would have been 10 years ago, but I certainly would have imagined it to be lower.

I am not sure it is really possible to know the number of visa-overstays as the system for leaving Canada and US does not always/often require an immigration check.

 

[kEiThZ]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696859986847060394

 

[kEiThZ]

Not that Justin can be held responsible, this seems to fit here and is yet another black eye for the CAF..

Commander of CFB Trenton charged over firearm use, bird hunting without a licence

Charges against Col. Leif Dahl, commander of 8 Wing and Canadian Forces Base Trenton, include obstructing a peace officer.

www.thestar.com

This is actually something a lot of more junior officers have been complaining about. Guys like that should have never been promoted. But there is a club at a certain level in the military and public service. And they are way too chummy with politicians. Keep in mind that Colonels and GOFOs (General and Flag Officers) are considered executives. They get special treatment on all kinds of things from chauffeurs and staff officers to 1:1 French classes to keep their profile. Some of that is needed for the job. But some of it are perks that push an exclusive mindset, which can often lead to an attitude of entitlement.

The military has started doing 360 evaluations in the hopes of weeding out these kinds of self-aggrandizing careerists. It'll take a few years for those guys and gals to filter to the top.

 

[kEiThZ]

Speaking of trouble...

A million more non-permanent residents live in Canada than official figures say, ministers told

The government has not been counting people who remain in the country after their visas expire, CIBC economist says

www.theglobeandmail.com

Canada, it would seem, now has a problem with 'illegal immigrants' based on VISA over-stays.

The estimate appears to 1M which is surprisingly close in scale/proportion to the issue in the :U.S. which is estimated to have 11.5 million people without legal status in the U.S.

Canada 2.5% of the population, 3.5% of the U.S. population.

This is what happens when you try to sneak though a TFW 2.0 program without any consideration of controls. They could end this tomorrow if they wanted by simply banning foreign students from working.

If the rates go up much more we may yet see the bubble burst.

Duration >> terminal rate

Another raise or two won't mean nearly as much as another year or two at this rate. What matters is how many mortgages are renewing into a higher rate everyday. And more importantly, the banks are worried about those who bought in the crazy market of 2021, have huge mortgages and will renew into fixed rate are 2-3% higher, in 2026. For a $600k mortgage (not unheard of in the GTA), 2% more means $1000/mo more in payments. Just imagine what that does to household budgets. And you just know that a lot these folks who loaded up on too much house also have investment condos and car loans.

 

[lenaitch]

And you just know that a lot these folks who loaded up on too much house also have investment condos and car loans.

Plus a bunch of Covid-induced discretionary buys, like toys and cottages. I expect FB Marketplace and Kijiji to be busy places, plus a 'market correction' in cottage country.

 

[Richard White]

Plus a bunch of Covid-induced discretionary buys, like toys and cottages. I expect FB Marketplace and Kijiji to be busy places, plus a 'market correction' in cottage country.

Don't forget all the cheap homes people bought on the east coast thinking WFH would be permanent.

Nova Scotia (particularly Halifax), PEI, Newfoundland and New Brunswick saw a large uptick in sales during covid.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Not that Justin can be held responsible, this seems to fit here and is yet another black eye for the CAF..

Commander of CFB Trenton charged over firearm use, bird hunting without a licence

Charges against Col. Leif Dahl, commander of 8 Wing and Canadian Forces Base Trenton, include obstructing a peace officer.

www.thestar.com

What's with CFB Trenton? First its CO is a murdering rapist, and now the successor is an animal abuser.

 

[lenaitch]

What's with CFB Trenton? First its CO is a murdering rapist, and now the successor is an animal abuser.

The allegations relate to hunting and firearms violation (and 'obstruct police for tossing the rifle in the water). A clustered of bad decisions for sure but I'm not sure "animal abuser" fits unless you are anti-hunting.

Rank-based entitlement isn't limited to Trenton.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The allegations relate to hunting and firearms violation (and 'obstruct police for tossing the rifle in the water). A clustered of bad decisions for sure but I'm not sure "animal abuser" fits unless you are anti-hunting.

Rank-based entitlement isn't limited to Trenton.

Just poor judgment all around - it would have been so much less damning if he just admitted to wrongdoing and left it at that.

Plus a bunch of Covid-induced discretionary buys, like toys and cottages. I expect FB Marketplace and Kijiji to be busy places, plus a 'market correction' in cottage country.

I think the market correction in cottage country had already happened for awhile?

AoD

 

[afransen]

Don't forget all the cheap homes people bought on the east coast thinking WFH would be permanent.

Nova Scotia (particularly Halifax), PEI, Newfoundland and New Brunswick saw a large uptick in sales during covid.

I definitely considered moving to a smaller Southern Ontario city (close enough to drive on occasion but not several times per week) if WFH was going to be permanent. But my spideysense told me to wait until the pandemic blows over before making hasty life decisions like this. I have coworkers who were not so careful (moved to Stratford, St Catharines, etc.).