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PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

Try being kind, it does wonders. The world is full of shades of grey, and the need to sway public opinion rests w/those who would seek to do so.

Not everything is aimed as an offence at you. Jeez.

I pointed out that this is the typical Canadian mindset because that is what it is: make target. But that's not how competition works. For a company that is choosing to invest, going to a new jurisdiction is a substantial risk. Having the same costs is just not enough. If that's the choice, they stay with what they know.

If you want to run for office on slashing Corporate tax and raising the VAT to 20% good luck w/that, but I suspect your vote total may be less than the Rhinoceros Party.

I specifically said above I don't think any of this is politically popular. I'm not here to say things that make Boomers feel better. I am here to share what I think is right, based on my experiences. If it's interesting to you, read it, if not, move on.

I also didn't say we don't have to meet, I said we may not have to, in the context of other advantages.

What advantages? And please don't say healthcare. When you're quibbling over $20/ hr auto assembly jobs, healthcare costs are a big deal. When you're trying to get a $250k/yr data scientist, healthcare costs are an annoyance.....
 
Canada is a larger nation-state than more than 1/2 the OECD

Who cares? You can sit in Latvia and access the whole EU market. And it's easier than anything you can do in North America from Canada.

This is partly what I am getting at. These kind of throwaway feel good arguments that Canadians tell each other isn't going to change anything. You can't fix a problem, if you're not honest about what the problem is.
 
I don't see those as being mutually exclusive. We have to be a bit realistic about the size of our market. We are never going to match California's VC ecosystem. It is singular.

Forget matching. I don't think we fare well proportionally. We're definitely even lower down this list given how much our population has grown:

Screen-Shot-2021-10-29-at-12.03.19-PM.png



And if you look on this list for where Canada is, and below, it's all a bunch of countries which are in similar economic doldrums. Mostly developed countries, but increasingly struggling with competitiveness and having issues with quality of life, cost of living and flagging productivity.
 
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What advantages? And please don't say healthcare. When you're quibbling over $20/ hr auto assembly jobs, healthcare costs are a big deal. When you're trying to get a $250k/yr data scientist, healthcare costs are an annoyance.....

We do have to start w/healthcare as it is a material cost :

1689885260586.png

Lets compare that to average profit per employee:

1689885365815.png


Source: https://tipalti.com/profit-per-employee/

The cost per employee in Canada will obviously vary by whether supplemental coverage (dental/drugs etc.) is in place, but generally the advantage appears to be

$3,000-$5000 USD per employee.

****

Aside from healthcare, property taxes paid by business are lower in Canada than in the U.S.

Electricity Rates for business in USD average 10.2c per kw/h in Canada vs 14.6c kw/h in the U.S.


Payroll taxes are also vastly higher in the U.S. vs Canada

* an interesting note on that last one is that while this is a gross negative to business, it does have the effect of encouraging productivity/labour-saving investments by business.

It also fits a pattern, that Canada makes its cheaper to employ more people vs the U.S. (including through suppressed wages)

We also have some cheaper input costs, notably, softwood lumber, and pulp and paper, as U.S. tariffs/import quotas drive those costs up there.

Of course, we have higher food costs due to oligopolies in retail and supply management.

Higher alcohol costs, particularly for restaurants.

So its a bit of see-saw.
 
Who cares? You can sit in Latvia and access the whole EU market. And it's easier than anything you can do in North America from Canada.

This is partly what I am getting at. These kind of throwaway feel good arguments that Canadians tell each other isn't going to change anything. You can't fix a problem, if you're not honest about what the problem is.

Right, but we will always be the smaller market than the U.S.; likely forever, certainly for the next century.

So growing the market (population size) is not going to gain us relative advantage, we have to see that elsewhere.

If total market-size is to equal the U.S. that can only come with unfettered access to the U.S. market. NAFTA does run in that direction, but its certainly not one market; and I don't see that deal being on the table anytime soon.

We have to be honest about what problems are solvable.
 
You want to know why we can't have capital for innovation? Here's an example:


Homeownership is so sacred in Canada, that rather than allowing a normal business cycle, the leader of what is supposed to be our pro-labour socialist party wants to subsidize existing homeowners, instead of just letting them sell if they can't afford rates. Imagine trying to convince somebody to back a startup against this kind of investment mindset.
This level of economic illiteracy (or craven pandering) is why I cannot consider the NDP as a viable alternative for government. He is suggesting we actively fight the BoC's monetary policy.
 
You know how many people I know who bought during Covid when rates were low but are now stuck renegotiating their mortgage at 5% + Prime? It is not their fault that the Bank of Canada raised interest rates.
It is their fault that they overextended and bought on the assumption that housing is a guaranteed safe investment.
 
We do have to start w/healthcare as it is a material cost :

1689885260586.png

Lets compare that to average profit per employee:

1689885365815.png


Source: https://tipalti.com/profit-per-employee/

The cost per employee in Canada will obviously vary by whether supplemental coverage (dental/drugs etc.) is in place, but generally the advantage appears to be

$3,000-$5000 USD per employee.

****

Aside from healthcare, property taxes paid by business are lower in Canada than in the U.S.

Electricity Rates for business in USD average 10.2c per kw/h in Canada vs 14.6c kw/h in the U.S.


I get where this line of thinking comes from. But it doesn't really work when you're talking about attracting high value added investment. $3000-5000 per employee for healthcare costs will be a big deal to a company moving a labour intensive warehouse or manufacturing operation where the average employee makes $60k/yr. It's not a big deal to some tech company where their average employee is making six figures. They will only care about talent quality. A few thousand more on healthcare is almost irrelevant.

Electricity rates can be beneficial in an operation that requires lots of electricity. But even there, the benefit isn't enough to attract substantial investment on its own. How many billions had to be committed to get those battery plants? And for most businesses, electricity rates aren't a huge differentiator.

It's important to look past all these average numbers and look at context and what they mean specifically for competitiveness with the type of industries Canada wants to attract investment in. And I think at least part of the problem we have in Canada is because our national debates are pretty much exactly the one we're having here. It's not informed and based on experience. Nobody is going out and asking tech entrepreneurs what they need to build a business in Canada. Instead, it's always somebody yelling about how we have public healthcare and postsecondary.l Utimately, for me, the proof is in the pudding. Either value add businesses are moving here or they are not. And I don't see them coming....
 
Canada is a larger nation-state than more than 1/2 the OECD

View attachment 493647

At our current rate of population growth we will pass Spain 5 years. I'm not sure I want to entertain how small a market we are, I think this gets us into a narrow U.S. vs Canada world view.

Baring extraordinary calamity, we will almost certainly always be a smaller market than the U.S. So I think it more behooves us to look at whose out performing us in a similar population/GDP range and see how we can take from them to be more
competitive/productive; and how we can then spread the windfall from that to more people.



I concur; on this point, but our performance does have an unreasonable lag to it, to me.
Forget matching. I don't think we fare well proportionally. We're definitely even lower down this list given how much our population has grown:

Screen-Shot-2021-10-29-at-12.03.19-PM.png



And if you look on this list for where Canada is, and below, it's all a bunch of countries which are in similar economic doldrums. Mostly developed countries, but increasingly struggling with competitiveness and having issues with quality of life, cost of living and flagging productivity.
I'm shocked Canada is even at 1/3 the US per capita. And double Australia!
 
I get where this line of thinking comes from. But it doesn't really work when you're talking about attracting high value added investment. $3000-5000 per employee for healthcare costs will be a big deal to a company moving a labour intensive warehouse or manufacturing operation where the average employee makes $60k/yr.

It's not a big deal to some tech company where their average employee is making six figures. They will only care about talent quality. A few thousand more on healthcare is almost irrelevant.

Electricity rates can be beneficial in an operation that requires lots of electricity. But even there, the benefit isn't enough to attract substantial investment on its own. How many billions had to be committed to get those battery plants? And for most businesses, electricity rates aren't a huge differentiator.

I agree that this is more about the factory/larger, lower-cost employee side. But then, do I want to give the company that already is located here due to those relative advantages a further break, in order to sweeten the pot for those business where it is less of an issue?

On the subject of corporate taxes, its important to note that the U.S. Federal rate is far higher than the Canadian Federal Rate; (21% vs 15%)
The differences occur both in tax credits/deductions and at the State/Provincial level where State taxes tend to be lower or even non-existent for business.

I'm open on what the exact form of the answer is.......... I just haven't drawn a conclusion.

It's important to look past all these average numbers and look at context and what they mean specifically for competitiveness with the type of industries Canada wants to attract investment in. And I think at least part of the problem we have in Canada is because our national debates are pretty much exactly the one we're having here. It's not informed and based on experience. Nobody is going out and asking tech entrepreneurs what they need to build a business in Canada. Instead, it's always somebody yelling about how we have public healthcare and postsecondary.

Ultimately, for me, the proof is in the pudding. Either value add businesses are moving here or they are not.

Again, we're close in positions here. I'm not precluding or determining the exact right mix of options.

***

Right now, we're picking up steam in tech, on few different strengths.

1) A post-secondary system that will produce talent to order. (we're graduating a lot of folks in IT/Coding)

2) A relatively open immigration/work permit system that makes it easy to supplement local talent as required.

3) Cheap labour costs (the average Canadian tech worker is ~ 1/3 lower cost in exchange rate adjusted dollars than their U.S. counterpart.)

***

The above tends to attract 'branch operations' and back-house work, which isn't a bad thing unto itself.

But it doesn't do anything to foster start-ups, retention and growth of same, and intellectual property rights vested in Canada.

****

But one of the things that drives U.S. tech wages higher, is the relative difficulty of importing said labour.
Its again an interesting push and pull, there are so many factors that affect things.

My argument is not for the status quo and is to make us more competitive; I'm just not pre-judging what the exact mix of measures ought to be.

I'd like more info of the very kind you suggest. We know the VC market needs nurturing here. That's a given.
We know the penalty associated with growing your business above a small size here is relatively high.

Adjusting those two items is the easy (ish) bit. (clearly VC isn't easy, but knowing its one part of the issue is)

But where do we go from there?

There's clearly a lot more to do.

I'm just not sold that its a straight emulate the U.S. or try to beat the latter at their own game, scenario. I expect we wouldn't win a tit for tat game of that type. Similar to asking the small independent store on Main Street, USA to match Walmart's prices, sometimes 'matching' simply isn't viable, if only because your larger competitor can just under cut you again, even at a loss, til you give up. There are other solutions though, niche markets, nimble-ness, quality over quantity etc.

We clearly need to come closer to the U.S. in the things I noted above. But we also need to be mindful of how European countries (or Asian ones) succeed in attracting or retaining desired talent and investment.
 
2) A relatively open immigration/work permit system that makes it easy to supplement local talent as required.

[...]

The above tends to attract 'branch operations' and back-house work, which isn't a bad thing unto itself.

I'd argue this is very appealing for primary offices, as it makes it easier to bring global talent to one location. Getting H1B visas for employees in the US is cumbersome.
 
I'm shocked Canada is even at 1/3 the US per capita. And double Australia!

I'm not. Honestly, until I spent time in California and was exposed to how their entire system works, I would have been as naive as most Canadians. This is why you get people who think we can use healthcare costs as a sweetener. I probably would have said the same thing a decade ago.

Big tech mostly cares about one thing: talent. They will go anywhere and pay absurd amounts to get the best. And that's because tech is disproportionately oriented towards quality. One good engineer can outdo ten average engineers. Heck, there are cases where somebody codes or engineers something that undoes or outshines the work of hundreds.

When it comes to attracting investment, this is what is important. Ironically, flooding our universities and colleges with students doesn't exactly help on this front. All the work Canada will get is the kind that would normally go to H-1Bs. It's not the high end development work. It's just competing with Bangalore.
 
But we also need to be mindful of how European countries (or Asian ones) succeed in attracting or retaining desired talent and investment.

You keep looking for some hidden secret where there is none. Why is Singapore on top of that list, followed by Israel and Scandinavian countries? They are all jurisdictions that are very business friendly (good for capital formation) and have high quality labour for lower wages (compared to the US). The US is exceptional with higher wages. But they make up for it with very high quality education and higher productivity overall.

Gallons and gallons of digital ink have been spilled looking at this topic by various economists, think tanks, government departments, etc. A lot of what needs to be done is known. People just don't like what they hear, so they keep asking. The advice isn't going to change.

This is why I also said earlier, may be we need to get to the brink before people accept that changes need to be made. Just like the Chretien era. And that is unfortunate, because the longer the delay, the more painful the eventual measures are going to be.

On the politics of it, I don't expect this government to do anything. I expect the next CPC government will do some tax cuts. Won't change much, because tax cuts don't address all the other myriad issues in Canada. And sometime next decade we'll be facing draconian cuts and professionals fleeing, just like the 90s. I hope I'm wrong. I fear I'm right.
 

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