PM Justin Trudeau's Canada

[picard102]

CERB was definitely more generous and lasted longer than it should have.

By what measure? This reeks of "welfare queen" conservatism.

 

[kEiThZ]

By what measure? This reeks of "welfare queen" conservatism.

I'd say the fact that incomes went up during an economic shock and then stayed up as inflation started creeping up definitely speaks to all the income supports (not just CERB) being too generous when taken together. That's just macroeconomics.

Nowhere did I say the government shouldn't provide support. But when inflation started creeping up, and the mass unemployment predicted didn't materialize, they should have started dialing it back. Especially when we're talking about programs like CRB running till Fall 2021. At minimum with programs like CERB, they should have started qualifying people immediately after the initial rush. Instead they have hundreds of thousands who were found to not qualify after the fact. That money has undoubtedly contributed to the surge in inflation we saw.

In any program, there's always going to be some leakage and losses. That's to be expected. But when 1 in 10 are deemed not to qualify after the fact, I question whether these programs were well administered.

Also, the government had to be cognizant of the fact that the BoC was keeping rates low. That was massively stimulative to the economy. That should have prompted them to be far more restrained and judicious with income supports. But they seemed to have designed the policy without any consideration of monetary policy at all.

Ultimately, it will be interesting to see how much they pay for it politically. The 25 yr old who voted for Trudeau in 2015, will be an angry 35 yr old who can't afford their own home in 2025.

 

[Towered]

Canada's population reaches 40 million

As of June 16, 2023, there are now 40 million Canadians! This is a historic milestone for Canada and certainly cause for celebration. It is also a great opportunity to look back on the country's growth over the years, and to reflect on the future.......

www.statcan.gc.ca

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

Politicians point fingers on housing crisis, but calls growing for more co-operation​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/housing-crisis-canada-politicians-1.6887675

"I've never seen a cohort of 22-year-olds as angry and wanting to burn down the system as the group I've taught in recent years. And I can't exactly blame them, that they feel like their futures are being taken away from them, that they'll never be able to afford a home," he said.

Moffatt, who served as an economic adviser to then-Liberal leader Justin Trudeau before he was elected prime minister, said the Liberal government got elected in 2015 in part because millennial voters were energized by the party's progressive policy proposals, including legalizing cannabis.

Now, those millennials are struggling to find homes they can afford, he said.


"There's a real risk here that the very same people who got the Liberals elected in 2015 may be the ones to get them defeated during the next federal election," Moffatt said.

 

[kEiThZ]

Now, those millennials are struggling to find homes they can afford, he said.


"There's a real risk here that the very same people who got the Liberals elected in 2015 may be the ones to get them defeated during the next federal election," Moffatt said.

Exactly what I said above:

The 25 yr old who voted for Trudeau in 2015, will be an angry 35 yr old who can't afford their own home in 2025.

I see it all around me. A lot of younger folks who would be quite progressive feeling like they've been sold a lie by progressive politicians. Those young people who voted for Trudeau are now reaching regular voting age and they are angry. As someone who cares deeply about climate policy, I fear this government risking a real backlash that elects a decade of hard conservative governments after this.

The craziest part of all this? Singh and the NDP practically leaning into the champagne socialist caricature.

 

[afransen]

Yes, I think Singh has a big image problem. On the Hurle Berly podcast, the NDP proxy explained his choice to wear three piece suits as Singh's personal hangup around imposter syndrome or whatever.

 

[Northern Light]

Yes, I think Singh has a big image problem. On the Hurle Berly podcast, the NDP proxy explained his choice to wear three piece suits as Singh's personal hangup around imposter syndrome or whatever.

What, and not his hangup for driving his BMW?

(no I'm not picking on that personally, just saying, of all the things to call out, and for that supposed reasons......holy @#$#)

 

[afransen]

What, and not his hangup for driving his BMW?

(no I'm not picking on that personally, just saying, of all the things to call out, and for that supposed reasons......holy @#$#)

Most politicians try to seem more folksy by losing the jacket and rolling up their sleeves. Singh, trying to cater to a more working class demographic, seems to lean the opposite direction looking the part of a millennial hipster.

 

[Northern Light]

Most politicians try to seem more folksy by losing the jacket and rolling up their sleeves. Singh, trying to cater to a more working class demographic, seems to lean the opposite direction looking the part of a millennial hipster.

Justin wears a lot of suits........

As do most Pols.

Jagmeet is dressing the part, which is how he dressed before he was the NDP leader. No one had a bad word to say about it when he was the Ontario NDP leader in waitiing.

I think there are fair ways to critique his presentation........his choice of attire is not one.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

As Canada grapples with a doctor shortage, Ottawa announces immigration stream for health workers​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-doctor-shortage-immigration-1.6891603

While the government is committed to bringing in more immigrant health-care workers, it's not a cure-all for what ails the system.

The announcement Wednesday does not address ongoing issues with foreign credential recognition — something Ottawa also has vowed to address with the provinces and territories.

Medical licensing is strictly a provincial responsibility but the federal government has promised more money to help streamline a cumbersome process.

Foreign-trained doctors can immigrate to Canada — but that doesn't mean they can actually work in their profession.

Meanwhile...

Canadian-born family doctor struggles to come home through a wall of red tape​

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadian-doctor-struggle-to-get-licensed-1.6890254

But the MCC process isn't the only hurdle facing DeMarchi and others seeking the licence they need to practise medicine in Canada.

Like other health-care related files, physician recruitment in Canada is a jurisdictional quagmire.

There's a parallel process that would-be doctors have to go through with provincial colleges of physicians and surgeons, the bodies responsible for licensing doctors.

In theory, the MCC is supposed to be the agency tasked with gathering and verifying foreign credentials and then passing that data on to the provincial colleges of physicians and surgeons. But DeMarchi said she has run into trouble with the College of Physicians and Surgeons of Ontario (CPSO). They want her to reproduce some documents that she's already sent to the MCC.

That might sound like an easy fix but DeMarchi has to pay a steep fee and wait for the Australian regulator to create new copies of documents she's already provided to another Canadian health-care gatekeeper.

"That was a nightmare. It's absolutely ludicrous," DeMarchi said.

"They just keep telling me, 'Look, ma'am, these things take time.' They're not saying, 'This is a Canadian who's studied and trained and she's ready to go, let's expedite this.' Nope."

DeMarchi said the CPSO recently rejected one of her reference letters because the agent reviewing it wasn't sure if the date was formatted on a month-day-year or day-month-year basis. CPSO wants the month first.

 

[yrt+viva=1system]

The End of Homeownership​

For generations, middle-class Canadians have been sold on the promise of homeownership. The promise was always flawed. Today it’s simply broken.
https://macleans.ca/longforms/the-end-of-homeownership/

A TD Economics report released last year made starkly clear the consequences for individuals and families of this growing division. “Wealth inequality in Canada is not just a story of rich versus poor, it is one of homeowners versus non-homeowners,” the authors wrote. “With affordability now at its worst level in decades, the current generation of prospective homebuyers is facing the fate of missing out on housing wealth.” That wealth is a key instrument by which Canadians have—by design, since the 1940s—built their financial security.

“Even someone who owns a 450-square-foot apartment has access to all these tools that a renter doesn’t,” says Andy Yan. Consider, he says, the tax credits and forgivable loans the government lavishes on buyers for renovations. Or the fact that a home is one of the few investments Canadians can sell without paying capital gains tax. There’s also the small fortune available to many owners in home equity credit, and, of course, the equity itself.

Economists and personal finance experts have long warned that our overreliance on a single asset for financial security invites disaster, especially in a crash. The effort we put into building housing equity may be better invested in the stock market, some argue. But with the dramatic escalation of rents, it’s hard to imagine that very many of those households shut out of homeownership have enough money to pay rent and invest as much as they’d otherwise spend on a mortgage.

Political polarization may also intensify. In 2021, British researchers analyzed recent electoral results in 11 European countries. They concluded that not only were renters and homeowners politically divided, those divisions grew as homes became less affordable. Homeowners became less supportive of policies such as rent control or tax reform to help non-owners, and even less supportive of building new housing. Renters moved in the opposite direction. “The beneficiaries of unaffordability will prefer to keep policies and parties in place that keep prices high and rising,” concluded the authors. “They do so at the cost of growing polarization between renters and owners.”

Of course, any politician, left or right, can capitalize on righteous populist anger over the cost of housing. In Canada, Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has successfully seized on house prices as a wedge issue. Paul Kershaw is a policy professor at the University of British Columbia’s School of Population and Public Health, and the founder of Generation Squeeze, a think tank focused on addressing generational unfairness. “Poilievre is tapping into the anger of a younger demographic in a way that the Conservative Party typically has not,” he says. “The growing generational inequality, in terms of wealth and access to housing security, may change the way young and old map onto political affiliations, and what those affiliations mean.”

In other words, uncharted territory for typically rock-steady Canadian politics. Young voters have been key to electing the last two Liberal governments, but the current government has little credibility with that demographic on this file. That may have something to do with the fact that multiple-property owners, who have profited enormously from the past few years’ run-up in property values, are well-represented in government. More than 100 MPs, comprising more than one-third of Parliament, own multiple properties. They include the federal minister of housing, Ahmed Hussen, and Taleeb Noormohamed, MP for Vancouver Granville, who has made nearly $5 million dollars since 2005 selling more than 40 properties in Metro Vancouver. His constituents, meanwhile, are increasingly locked out of the financial benefits that owning even one home confers.

“We’ve screwed over young people, and we’ve screwed over newcomers of every age,” says Kershaw. “The group we need to tap into is the older demographic, who have been securely housed and made wealthier. We need to have a moral conversation about what it means to be on the sidelines.”

Otherwise, the outcome is clear. More and more Canadian neighbourhoods will begin to resemble mine: quiet and lonely communities accessible only to the privileged few who have already acquired or inherited housing wealth, and who seek to get richer still. Ultimately, all of us will pay the price.

Still waiting for what the Liberals will announce on the housing profile but I do not hold any hope that thy will do anything but keep the status quo. It almost seems like the Liberals know quite clear that they are in deep water and are going to be losing the next election, so they are just free wheeling it while they still can before getting turfed. I hope I am wrong but they don't seem to be taking housing very seriously at the current pace they are moving at.

 

[picard102]

I imagine at this point, doing something will do more to harm their election chances than not.

 

[kEiThZ]

They don't care. And as long as there are more homeowners than renters in this country, nothing will change.

There's simple political calculus here. And it applies across parties. Boomers will keep voting for policies that boost property value. New immigrant homeowners will do the same. Angry Millenials will flip the minute they inherit homes from their parents. You could have 40% of the population living in squalor and everybody else will be just fine with it.

The only question is whether 35 yr old Millennials who were 25 yr old new grads voting for Trudeau in 2015, will be pissed about their record high mortgage payments in 2025. Would they be angry enough to vote this government out, knowing that might bring in policies which reduce the value of their homes?

It's gross. The gerontocracy has basically screwed the future of this country for a very long time. And most of them are blissfully unaware how bad it is for working and middle class families.

 

[afransen]

The politics are probably not aligned for real movement on housing affordability. The young and lower income who are least likely to own a home are not the natural political base for the CPC, and the wealthier, older homeowners will likely balk at any real measures designed to improve affordability (aka lower home prices). Since these are the core base of support for the CPC, as much as PP might be using this as a sword against the government, I don't think he will get a lot of traction on this front (except picking up some angry young male voters). I think it will take the CPC forming government and the Liberals attacking on housing affordability to have the politics align in a way that can lead to meaningful reform. Unfortunately, the LPC under Trudeau has no interest in pissing off home owners, as that will cost them their government--they are just barely holding on from a public support standpoint.

 

[Northern Light]

The politics are probably not aligned for real movement on housing affordability. The young and lower income who are least likely to own a home are not the natural political base for the CPC, and the wealthier, older homeowners will likely balk at any real measures designed to improve affordability (aka lower home prices). Since these are the core base of support for the CPC, as much as PP might be using this as a sword against the government, I don't think he will get a lot of traction on this front (except picking up some angry young male voters). I think it will take the CPC forming government and the Liberals attacking on housing affordability to have the politics align in a way that can lead to meaningful reform. Unfortunately, the LPC under Trudeau has no interest in pissing off home owners, as that will cost them their government--they are just barely holding on from a public support standpoint.

The thing is; you can change a lot with a move that doesn't look like a move.

If you legislate an end to pre-construction sales of homes; you must sell a finished product, that will end the issue of bait and switch rendering, but it will also make condos much more difficult to finance, which will have developers turn to purpose-built rental as their model of choice.

You can enact a reduction in foreign students attending diploma mills or programs not that much better at Community Colleges and what does that have to do with the price of housing to the average person? But when you slash the number of foreign students in Canada from 600,000 to 300,000 that's 300,000 fewer owners/renters.

It would also create a labour shortage for low-cost labour which would drive wage growth an productivity investment, win-win-win.

The average shmo is not a policy wonk, they'll understand a tax on buying a home, or maybe removing the capital gain exemption for a personal residence, but policies seemingly once or twice removed won't be noticed until they've done their job.