Midtown Urbanist
Superstar
In terms of a new population centre on Lake Huron or Lake Erie, it becomes a harder question because the coast lines are so far out of the provincial paths of commerce. For Lake Erie, I figure the closest shot would be seeing London sprawl towards the lake and eventually merge with St. Thomas and Port Stanley. I see it being more viable on Lake Huron, with Wasaga Beach, Collingwood, and Barrie all eventually growing into one area.
I've always thought that Own Sound would be a good spot for one as it's out in a bit of a population desert in North-western southern Ontario. North of Orangeville there is a huge rural population base but without any really major population centres.
The problem is that its sort of isolated, much like the failed "townsend". The only reason you have to go there is to go there.
Most of Ontario's mid-sized cities are successful because of their location along the main corridors of trade between the major centres.
A typical strategy to try and move pressure off a burgeoning city is to move government jobs away from it. It seems to be the best way of taking the pressure off, but has been met with mixed success in the past. Perhaps its time that Ontario move it's capital and shift most of it's provincial employment to a new city on the shores of Lake Erie or Huron? It would have to be a huge undertaking, for sure.
Correct that neither shoreline is along "paths of commerce". It is unclear how you would bring employment to a new population centre, and that ended up being partially the failure of the Townsend venture.
As for a new centre along Lake Huron, I always thought that the towns of Port Elgin and Southampton could sprawl into each other. Concentrate employment and commercial activity along Hwy-21 between the two downtown areas, add transit, and sprawl (intelligently) between Lake Huron and the Saugeen River. What you would end up with is a reasonably significant population centre with well-defined urban boundary.
edit: I learned something new today. Apparently Port Elgin and Southampton were other lesser known recipients of the Common Sense revolution. They are actually a single municipality called Saugeen Shores.
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