Ontario election predictions, anyone?

[Eug]

I'm a little nervous that Hudak and McGuinty still remain neck and neck despite the more pro-Liberal/anti-Hudak ads that I've seen versus pro-PC/anti-McGuinty. There seems to be a few independent groups (working families, teachers) putting up ads to the detriment of Hudak.

I was more confident when there was the possibility that even if McGuinty won less seats, he could form a coalition with the NDP and there would be no way Hudak would become Premier. Now that McGuinty has come so completely and publicly against a coalition, it can't happen so it will come down to who has more seats.

I'm still moderately optimistic that the usual strategic NDP voters will move to Liberal last minute. Hopefully in enough numbers to put McGuinty just over Hudak. I can't imagine transit in Toronto taking another blow (i.e. cancelled Eglinton, Airport line, Streetcar order)

I think McGuinty said that precisely to encourage strategic voting from NDPers.

 

[ttk77]

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

I know this guy wasn't particularly accurate for the past federal election, but he does make a good point that Hudak's support is pretty even through most of Ontario while McGuinty's is more concentrated in pockets. When polling numbers are this close together, the advantage tends to go to the person who's support is not evenly spread. I think his current projection of a Liberal majority is a little weak, but I don't believe we'll see a change in governing party.

 

[RE81]

My prediction is that Hudak will back his way into it. Why does the Green Party have to be so absolutely useless? Ontarians are aching for a change and they are completely dropping the ball. Being the underdog is no excuse either. Harris started with nothing in 1995 and built a majority standing on a platform of making welfare bums work. Surely the Green Party can do better than that right?

http://it-grinds-my-gears.blogspot.com/2011/10/problem-with-canadian-politics.html

 

[jade_lee]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1063512


This is reason not to vote PC.

 

[nfitz]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1063512


This is reason not to vote PC.

Wow ... Tories must be really desperate if they are now openly courting the homophobe vote. Presumably this is a desperate attempt to court those in minority communities in 905 and outer 416 that Ford captured so successfully last year.

I can only assuming that their internal polling is showing the same trends that showed up in the 2-day polling Nanos and EKOS released today, that show the Liberals with a safe minority, and even in majority territory.

 

[MetroMan]

Hudak is sounding desperate and people are noticing. He's blatantly lying in saying that Dalton McGuinty is negotiating with the NDP for a coalition and that they'll raise your taxes. It's totally fabricated. There really should be an election ombudsman that verifies claims and statements by candidates and penalizes them when they lie.

I think McGuinty has the wind at his back. If there were more than 2 days to go 'til election day, I wouldn't find it difficult to believe that we'd get another Liberal majority.

 

[TonyV]

Hudak is sounding desperate and people are noticing. He's blatantly lying in saying that Dalton McGuinty is negotiating with the NDP for a coalition and that they'll raise your taxes. It's totally fabricated. There really should be an election ombudsman that verifies claims and statements by candidates and penalizes them when they lie.

I think McGuinty has the wind at his back. If there were more than 2 days to go 'til election day, I wouldn't find it difficult to believe that we'd get another Liberal majority.

I would be happy to see a Liberal majority again. I think it may not happen, though. You'd be surprised at how many people will stupidly take Hudak's bait.

At this point I am sticking to my original prediction of a Liberal minority.

 

[doady]

Looks like Peel Region will get a NDP MPP for the first time ever...

 

[gabe]

It’s getting harder and harder to distinguish between Tea party south and PC party north.

 

[Jonny5]

We're down to the wire!

I predict Hudak will step down as leader if the PCs get less than 30 seats, though I think they will manage to get that many, but just barely.
Even at 30, I would think it would be tough to hang on as leader, but, as far as I know, there is no one waiting in the wings to challenge him.

 

[MetroMan]

Latest analysis: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/10/liberals-up-in-ontario-but-outcome.html

The Toronto Star sponsored poll today puts the Liberals & PC's neck in neck again, with Hudak slightly ahead of McGuinty. However, all the other polls put Liberals ahead of the Conservatives by as much as 10%. Either the Angus-Reid poll sponsored by The Star is a rogue or the left leaning publication is hoping to encourage voters afraid of Hudak to make sure they go out and vote.

I'm still pretty confident that McGuinty will get re-elected. Whether it's a minority or a majority, I think it'll be up in the air. On one hand, I'd like a Majority so that McGuinty can finish his work unhindered for the next 4 years but I like the idea of an NDP backed minority keeping the Liberals in check and insuring a focus on transit -- perhaps even squeaking in the 50-50 TTC operating cost arrangement. Either way, I think Hudak is toast. Maybe the Tories will finally move away from the Mike Harris radical right.

 

[spider]

The Conservatives win a majority because the NDP swipes a bunch of votes from the Liberals. Wait a minute, that is a wish, not a prognostication. Oh what the hell if it happens there will be much consternation here on UT, I can hardly wait.

 

[Dan416]

I'm gonna predict Liberal majority, just because I don't think Ontarians are crazy.

 

[urbandreamer]

I wish the Tories would win. Sick of the LI(b)E(ral)S !!

 

[Admiral Beez]

I just returned from voting. Voted NDP for the first time provincially. Couldn't vote for Dalton (liar, big spender, huge deficits, mismanager, etc...), wouldn't vote for Hudak (tea party-lite social conservatism, acts like an opposition leader, not a premier), so voted for Horvath.

What I wish the PCs would present is what they want the province to be. What do they like about the province. And they can't talk about taxes or business. Tell us what you want the province to be, outside of taxes and business matters.