Admiral Beez
Superstar
That looks like something from freedominion.
|
|
|
Ontario election predictions, anyone?
- Thread starter TonyV
- Start date
nfitz
Superstar
But your not concerned about the Progressive Conservative reference to new Canadian citizens as foreigners, and the party's attack over the weekend of homosexuals and transgendered?
Or perhaps the bigger concern ... that Hudak stood up after both incidents and defended it, rather than simply apologizing for the extreme and vile bigotry.
That looks like something that has been spray painted on houses in parts of Toronto while they cut brake lines on vehicles.
Bayer
Senior Member
Sick of the "lies"? I doubt it. Honesty is not rewarded in politics. I remember when Kim Campbell said that it would take several years for the unemployment rate to go down. The Conservatives were wiped out. But she turned out to be right.
Politicians lie because the plebes want puppies and rainbows. Promises to not increase taxes are irresponsible and I don't believe them, so I'm not disappointed. I want the government to do what it considers necessary under the circumstances. Which is why I didn't vote for the NDP (too populist) or for the Conservatives (their platform doesn't add up, and their obsession about crime is ridiculous).
Politicians lie because the plebes want puppies and rainbows. Promises to not increase taxes are irresponsible and I don't believe them, so I'm not disappointed. I want the government to do what it considers necessary under the circumstances. Which is why I didn't vote for the NDP (too populist) or for the Conservatives (their platform doesn't add up, and their obsession about crime is ridiculous).
MetroMan
Senior Member
Going to vote now. I've pondered the MPP vs Premier decision for weeks. Rosario Marchese has been an exemplary MPP for several terms but I cannot vote NDP in this election. I want Dalton McGuinty to be our Premier and I can't trust Horwath to pick the Liberals to rule with in the case of a Minority. Sarah Thomson will make a great MPP for Trinity-Spadina.
Mongo
Senior Member
I am hoping for a Liberal minority government. My first choice (NDP) has no chance at the provincial level, and the PCs are abhorrent to me. That leaves the Liberals as relatively non-damaging, but their northern Ontario policy is terrible. McGuinty has no interest in, or understanding of, northern Ontario issues and concerns, so has allowed the policy to be driven by southern Ontario pressure groups, who while well-meaning, advocate policies that are driving the northern Ontario economy into the ground.
So I am hoping for a Liberal minority government. The Liberals, needing NDP support, would be fairly accepting of NDP policy in certain areas. Since the largest single bastion of NDP support in Ontario is in the north, they would be likely to make adopting rational policies for the region one of their conditions of their support of the Liberal government.
This also means that northern Ontario voters are making the right choice by supporting the NDP. The PC party is not a real choice, and the Liberals are no better for the region, and unlikely to be listened to by McGuinty if they are elected. The only way that their MPPs would have real, effective influence is if they are part of the party that holds the balance of power, who therefore can push their own policies (within reason), and the NDP has always been about creating (or at least preserving) jobs in the North.
(I know that this has nothing to do with Toronto, but I am originally from northern Ontario, and the way that the entire region has been dumped upon by the McGuinty government, for the purpose of cultivating southern Ontario votes, is infuriating to me.)
So I am hoping for a Liberal minority government. The Liberals, needing NDP support, would be fairly accepting of NDP policy in certain areas. Since the largest single bastion of NDP support in Ontario is in the north, they would be likely to make adopting rational policies for the region one of their conditions of their support of the Liberal government.
This also means that northern Ontario voters are making the right choice by supporting the NDP. The PC party is not a real choice, and the Liberals are no better for the region, and unlikely to be listened to by McGuinty if they are elected. The only way that their MPPs would have real, effective influence is if they are part of the party that holds the balance of power, who therefore can push their own policies (within reason), and the NDP has always been about creating (or at least preserving) jobs in the North.
(I know that this has nothing to do with Toronto, but I am originally from northern Ontario, and the way that the entire region has been dumped upon by the McGuinty government, for the purpose of cultivating southern Ontario votes, is infuriating to me.)
MetroMan
Senior Member
I appreciate your argument, but it has one fallacy: who says the NDP will support the Liberals and not the PC's?
It wouldn't beneficial for Horwath to prop up their Liberal adversaries because the NDP will always play second fiddle to them. Keeping the Liberals out of government for 2 or 3 years gives the NDP a chance to build themselves up as a real choice, specially if they can force the PC's to agree to some of their key policies. We'd end up with the NDP in the news quite often, and a list of accomplishments to show when an election does come up -- which the NDP would trigger, setting the stage for an NDP vs PC fight in that election.
It wouldn't beneficial for Horwath to prop up their Liberal adversaries because the NDP will always play second fiddle to them. Keeping the Liberals out of government for 2 or 3 years gives the NDP a chance to build themselves up as a real choice, specially if they can force the PC's to agree to some of their key policies. We'd end up with the NDP in the news quite often, and a list of accomplishments to show when an election does come up -- which the NDP would trigger, setting the stage for an NDP vs PC fight in that election.
Jonny5
Senior Member
The majority/minority question election may come down to recounts!
In Trinity-Spadina, Marchese is currently trailing Thomson. I think Marchese thought he had a lock on it, I didn't see him campaigning at all. Actually, compared to the federal election, it was very quiet -- no one came to my door, I didn't see anyone out and about, and I didn't get any phone calls (with the federal election, there were people on the corner almost every morning, I had multiple at-home visits and phone calls). It was one of the most boring elections I've seen!
MetroMan
Senior Member
Dalton McGuinty Re-elected Premier of Ontario
It's official: Dalton McGuinty will stay on as Premier. The Hudak threat is pushed aside... for now.
I'll be happy with either a Majority or a Minority.
Majority: An assured 4 years for McGuinty is ok with me and I like the breathing room that will allow this presumably final term Premier to feel free to build a legacy, with Toronto standing to benefit: subways, large institutions, and other big shot legacy projects go to large cities, Toronto being of course the biggest in Ontario.
Minority: The NDP will no doubt have an influence on a hanging Liberal government. Given that the resumption of 50-50 TTC funding being a major platform issue for Horwath in this election, it will probably be a leading candidate for NDP's shopping list given to McGuinty to prop up his government.
What I'm loving right now is that Rob Ford is guaranteed to be in deep shit. He threatened to sick Ford Nation on McGuinty and now that McGuinty is still Premier, Ford is going to have a very very rough remaining 3 years as Mayor. There's also the possibility that McGuinty could introduce recall legislation for Mayors if Ford doesn't play ball.
It's official: Dalton McGuinty will stay on as Premier. The Hudak threat is pushed aside... for now.
I'll be happy with either a Majority or a Minority.
Majority: An assured 4 years for McGuinty is ok with me and I like the breathing room that will allow this presumably final term Premier to feel free to build a legacy, with Toronto standing to benefit: subways, large institutions, and other big shot legacy projects go to large cities, Toronto being of course the biggest in Ontario.
Minority: The NDP will no doubt have an influence on a hanging Liberal government. Given that the resumption of 50-50 TTC funding being a major platform issue for Horwath in this election, it will probably be a leading candidate for NDP's shopping list given to McGuinty to prop up his government.
What I'm loving right now is that Rob Ford is guaranteed to be in deep shit. He threatened to sick Ford Nation on McGuinty and now that McGuinty is still Premier, Ford is going to have a very very rough remaining 3 years as Mayor. There's also the possibility that McGuinty could introduce recall legislation for Mayors if Ford doesn't play ball.
Eug
Senior Member
Indeed. It's 10:30 now, and the Liberals have elected 47 and are leading in 7. That makes for a total of that magical number 54. Two minutes ago, it was a total of 53.
Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown, here we come!
AlvinofDiaspar
Moderator
Interestingly all the ward-equivalent Ford Nation ridings remains, as they've been, solidly Liberal.
Metro:
Actually, it might be more beneficial to have Ford left in the mayor's chair - just to remind voters who brought the mess along. The PC brand name will be spoiled in Toronto for awhile yet.
AoD
Metro:
Actually, it might be more beneficial to have Ford left in the mayor's chair - just to remind voters who brought the mess along. The PC brand name will be spoiled in Toronto for awhile yet.
AoD
MetroMan
Senior Member
That goes to show you how terrible the Smitherman/Pantalone campaigns were in fighting Ford. Effectively pushing the message that Ford was the CONSERVATIVE candidate would have had a significant dent on his numbers. Pants and George were too busy fighting each other really.
MetroMan
Senior Member
Rosario is back on the map, though there are still a lot of polls waiting to report. His seat is currently holding the key to McGuinty's Majority.
UPDATE: Rosario is re-elected. I bet he was shaking in his boots for a long while there.
That seat was McGuinty's best hope for the remaining seat for a majority. There's still Perth-Wellington at a razor thin margin jumping between the PCs and the Liberals with 15 polls to go.
Last edited:
Irishmonk
Senior Member
I'm pleased with the result; it's especially good for Toronto and probably Northern Ontario as well. Andrea Horwath seems tough, but fair, as well as smart, and should force Premier Dad to focus more on urban issues like transportation and services for the most needy.
It feels so satisfying to be able to stick a finger in the eye of the Fords and Stephen Harper. Sorry, dudes, no trifecta; Ontario is and remains, for the most part a liberal province. The biggest loser of the night: tea-bagger populism and all its shady supporters.
It feels so satisfying to be able to stick a finger in the eye of the Fords and Stephen Harper. Sorry, dudes, no trifecta; Ontario is and remains, for the most part a liberal province. The biggest loser of the night: tea-bagger populism and all its shady supporters.
kEiThZ
Superstar
I would have liked to have seen a narrow majority (54 seats) so that we could have had stability going forward while the Liberals got wrapped on their knuckles. Even a 53 seat minority will take some horse trading to get stuff done.
As for drawing conclusions, I'd caution against it. First off, in the popular vote the PCs and the Liberals were very close. Essentially Toronto (mostly) and Ottawa delivered the premiership to McGuinty. I doubt that Rob Ford and Stephen Harper had much of an impact as some say. In any events, Ontarians tend to vote opposing governments provincially and federally. If anything Stephen Harper may have helped Dalton, instead of boosting Hudak. Next, there's no parties at the municipal level. While many here associate Rob Ford with the Conservatives, I'd bet that the majority of voters don't draw that association. And he didn't really campaign for the PCs either.
It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward. Will McGuinty deliver for the urban areas? He's done close to nothing for Ottawa. And there is growing frustration here (despite his seat count in the area). He's committed a fair bit for the GTA, but hasn't executed much. And now will he be tempted to court the rest of Southern Ontario and more of Northern Ontario over the GTA, to expand his base? Meanwhile, there were some PC strategists on the news last night that were openly admitting that they needed to craft better urban strategies to win future elections. It will be interesting going forward.
As for drawing conclusions, I'd caution against it. First off, in the popular vote the PCs and the Liberals were very close. Essentially Toronto (mostly) and Ottawa delivered the premiership to McGuinty. I doubt that Rob Ford and Stephen Harper had much of an impact as some say. In any events, Ontarians tend to vote opposing governments provincially and federally. If anything Stephen Harper may have helped Dalton, instead of boosting Hudak. Next, there's no parties at the municipal level. While many here associate Rob Ford with the Conservatives, I'd bet that the majority of voters don't draw that association. And he didn't really campaign for the PCs either.
It'll be interesting to see what happens going forward. Will McGuinty deliver for the urban areas? He's done close to nothing for Ottawa. And there is growing frustration here (despite his seat count in the area). He's committed a fair bit for the GTA, but hasn't executed much. And now will he be tempted to court the rest of Southern Ontario and more of Northern Ontario over the GTA, to expand his base? Meanwhile, there were some PC strategists on the news last night that were openly admitting that they needed to craft better urban strategies to win future elections. It will be interesting going forward.