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November 2020 US Election

Admiral Beez

Admiral Beez

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Biden has Obama's endorsement. Now that it's on, I'd like to launch a new thread for the election.


Now, if Biden picks Abrams as his VP, this should give the Dems top odds of taking the White House. A Latino for Secretary of State or something important would help too.

www.nytimes.com

Opinion | It’s Obvious Whom Joe Biden Should Pick as Vice President (Published 2020)

He needs a running mate who strengthens the ticket in the areas where he is weakest. One person stands out.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Now what about keeping the House and taking the Senate? The latter has a lot of Gerrymandering to overcome.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
Obama will do his part to bring in the progressive voters that stayed home in 2016.
Click to expand...

LOL. I don't think anybody will do more to turn out progressive voters than Trump himself.

In 2016, Trump got the benefit of doubt. In 2020, everybody has decided where they stand on Trump. And all signs point to him not having expanded his base since 2016.

I expect a rout with Trump dragging down Republicans in the House and Senate with him. His handling of the current crisis is going to look spectacularly bad by November.
 
One thing is that the country is very divided and the focus should be on what voters think in Ohio, Wisconsin, NC and Flordia not in Oklahoma or California.


That is why anyone thinking it will be an easy Biden win should be cautious because I am seeing Trump winning at least 210-240 electoral votes.
 
Jasmine18 said:
One thing is that the country is very divided and the focus should be on what voters think in Ohio, Wisconsin, NC and Flordia not in Oklahoma or California.
Click to expand...
A lot will depend on how many people die from recognizably poor Coronavirus containment policy in those swing states.

For me, as long as he picks a non-white, female as VP, I think Biden has this locked. What I’m looking at more is the Senate. If the Dems can get all three branches of government they can make real progress on health care, tax reform, recalling the military from endless wars (many started or expanded by Dems), abortion rights, SCOTUS seats fillled, and get the ERA passed. Trump may have been the necessary madness to get America turned towards becoming a normal, western democracy.

The VP choice is critical, as this person will be seen as the successor. Biden will be 78 on Inauguration Day and stands a good chance of expiring or becoming incapacitated whilst in office. Unlike every president since Nixon resigned, the VP in 2020 is not just a place holder. Interestingly, a former VP hasn’t won the White House since George Bush in 1988, and in the postwar period is quite rare. Reagan’s destruction of Jimmy Carter’s former VP Walter Mondale in 1984 was legendary.
 
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Admiral Beez said:
......A lot will depend on how many people die from recognizably poor Coronavirus containment policy in those swing states.
Click to expand...

It will also depend on how the U.S. government bails out the newly unemployed, and uninsured.

The U.S. so far, has cut one, one-off cheque (which most people have yet to receive) for $1,200

Outside of that, there is only normal unemployment benefits, if you qualify.

Millions of Americans are losing or will lose their health insurance.

Its likely Trump voters are at disproportionate risk.
 
Admiral Beez said:
A lot will depend on how many people die from recognizably poor Coronavirus containment policy in those swing states.

For me, as long as he picks a non-white, female as VP, I think Biden has this locked. What I’m looking at more is the Senate. If the Dems can get all three branches of government they can make real progress on health care, tax reform, recalling the military from endless wars (many started or expanded by Dems), abortion rights, SCOTUS seats fillled, and get the ERA passed. Trump may have been the necessary madness to get America turned towards becoming a normal, western democracy.

The VP choice is critical, as this person will be seen as the successor. Biden will be 78 on Inauguration Day and stands a good chance of expiring or becoming incapacitated whilst in office. Unlike every president since Nixon resigned, the VP in 2020 is not just a place holder. Interestingly, a former VP hasn’t won the White House since George Bush in 1988, and in the postwar period is quite rare. Reagan’s destruction of Jimmy Carter’s former VP Walter Mondale in 1984 was legendary.
Click to expand...


Yeah I looked into Reagan as I was not alive then.

He had bad policies but he seemed very likeable on a personal level.

Joe Biden i don't think is anywhere near as folksy as he was .
 
Northern Light said:
It will also depend on how the U.S. government bails out the newly unemployed, and uninsured.

The U.S. so far, has cut one, one-off cheque (which most people have yet to receive) for $1,200

Outside of that, there is only normal unemployment benefits, if you qualify.

Millions of Americans are losing or will lose their health insurance.

Its likely Trump voters are at disproportionate risk.
Click to expand...

And they'll vote for him anyway because he's not a "Washington elite" and "tells it like it is!", haha.
 
Towered said:
And they'll vote for him anyway because he's not a "Washington elite" and "tells it like it is!", haha.
Click to expand...
...and don't forget Trump's greatest allies: confirmation bias and belief perseverance. Combine the two and you get the true-believer syndrome. No amounts of hard evidence, not even the most irrefutable evidence, can convince the most loyal Trump supporter to stop supporting him. The loyal Trump supporter will always find evidence in his/her favour, no matter how absurd.
 
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The Slumlord Millionaire episode on Netflix's Dirty Money mentions that many of the tenants who live in Jared Kushner's Baltimore housing complexes were major Trump supporters, and later found out that their landlord who screws them over repeatedly with excessive fees is actually the President's son in law. Wonder if they'll keep that exact same loyalty this time around.
 
AlbertC said:
The Slumlord Millionaire episode on Netflix's Dirty Money mentions that many of the tenants who live in Jared Kushner's Baltimore housing complexes were major Trump supporters, and later found out that their landlord who screws them over repeatedly with excessive fees is actually the President's son in law. Wonder if they'll keep that exact same loyalty this time around.
Click to expand...
The tenants would probably justify the excessive fees with their unwavering loyalty to Trump.
 
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