Novel Coronavirus COVID-19 (nCoV-2019)

[TrickyRicky]

PinkLucy, we truly don’t know but if there is anything I learned from the Covid-19 pandemic it’s that we (that is we in the West and particularly North America) have an extreme special case bias. Our bias is so deep and ingrained that I would consider it a fundamental flaw in our logical reasoning.

We don’t know if herd immunity is possible or how effective a vaccine will be; however the evidence is iterating towards more effective than a flu vaccine (around 60%) but less effective than a measles vaccine (95%). Furthermore, absence of immunity doesn’t mean no benefit if vaccination reduces the severity of future infection in the vaccinated population which is likely.

The combination of medical treatments and improved procedures halved mortality rates to date. They will likely half mortality rates again by 2021. Combine this with the percent of people already infected or exposed (including many of out most vulnerable) a say 80% effective vaccine with some lifetime reduction in disease severity for most people vaccinated and the covid-19 pandemic will be curtailed.

In the special case however people will still get covid-19 and die, even probably some people who got vaccinated.

 

[AlbertC]

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

Aug 11, 2020

The mishap shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted bike sales around the world as people buy them to ride to work, avoiding public transportation, as well as staying in shape.

The low inventories are an issue at other bike stores including Northern Cycle of Ajax. Colin Munro said almost every bike on the showroom floor has been either pre-sold or is in for repairs.

“There is nothing left to sell,” Munro said.

Bicycle factories, many in China, had to shut down during the pandemic so the supply chain has been interrupted. Munro said at this point if you want to order a bike you may not get it until next year.

“The pre-order dates are for December to March for availability right now and if we don't get on that this week it may take until May or June of next year (to get them)."

It’s not just bicycles – there is also difficulty getting repair parts, tubes and tires.

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

When a Toronto woman decided to buy a new bicycle in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic she had no idea how hard it would be to find one.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

 

[W. K. Lis]

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

Aug 11, 2020

The mishap shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted bike sales around the world as people buy them to ride to work, avoiding public transportation, as well as staying in shape.

The low inventories are an issue at other bike stores including Northern Cycle of Ajax. Colin Munro said almost every bike on the showroom floor has been either pre-sold or is in for repairs.

“There is nothing left to sell,” Munro said.

Bicycle factories, many in China, had to shut down during the pandemic so the supply chain has been interrupted. Munro said at this point if you want to order a bike you may not get it until next year.

“The pre-order dates are for December to March for availability right now and if we don't get on that this week it may take until May or June of next year (to get them)."

It’s not just bicycles – there is also difficulty getting repair parts, tubes and tires.

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

When a Toronto woman decided to buy a new bicycle in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic she had no idea how hard it would be to find one.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

Maybe time for local manufacturers to step in.

The story of CCM: Weston plant created much more than bikes and skates

From link.

A manufacturing plant in northwest Toronto once produced bicycles, skates and hockey gear. It also produced love.

Gord Chard, 85, met his wife, Alice, who is four years younger than he is, when the pair worked at the Weston plant in 1950. Or maybe it was 1949. Neither can remember.

But Alice remembers how they met. She built bicycle wheels while Gord, a tool-and-die maker, made the machine Alice used.

“It wasn’t safe,” Alice said, smiling. “So I told him to fix it.”

“If I had a shot with her,” a chuckling Gord responded, “I had to listen.”

So Gord quickly figured out a way to keep Alice’s hands safe. They married in 1952 and still live in the Weston area.

The Chards were among a few dozen historical buffs who gathered Sunday afternoon at a youth centre in Weston to talk about CCM, a famed sporting goods company.

John McKenty presented the history of CCM, whose logo became synonymous with bicycles and hockey skates in Canada. He also signed his new book, Canada Cycle & Motor Company: The CCM Story.

A few locals brought in ancient CCM bikes such as Bob Smith’s 1948 ride. He bought the bike in Regina a month ago and disassembled it to ship back to Toronto. Smith’s first bicycle was also a CCM.

“My dad bought it for me for passing Grade 3,” Smith told the crowd with a wide grin, “for the third time.”

Smith, 61, began cycling significantly more in 2008 when his doctor told him he’d be dead soon if he didn’t get healthy. He weighed 105 kg at the time. Now he weighs 75 kg and recently began riding his vintage CCM downtown, which takes about an hour each way from Weston.

CCM was born in Toronto when Walter Massey, of the famed manufacturing family, wanted to build bicycles in addition to farm machinery. He bought plans from the American Bicycle Company and began building bikes in 1899 at his King St. W. plants.

The Masseys also wanted to build cars, which they did from 1905 to 1915, McKenty said. Thus the name: Canada Cycle and Motor company. A few years later, CCM began manufacturing skates from the scrap steel lying around the plant, which became the blades.

“CCM is a fascinating story,” McKenty said. “Bikes for summer and skates for winter — how Canadian is that?”

CCM even helped fight fires. Weston’s volunteer fire department divided the town into areas: area one, area two, and so on. The CCM plant acted as the department’s navigation system...

 

[lenaitch]

Inventories are extremely low on many manufactured products. A neighbour is high up with Polaris and says their sales are off the dial, and recreational boat dealers are saying the same thing. In addition to disrupted supply chains impacting inventories, the higher sales seem to be a result of folks with more time/bored/bored kids and looking for a diversion.

Even if manufacturing plants were domestically located, they would face the same problems of disrupted supply chains and production. Go ahead - try to buy pressure treated lumber.

Watch Kijiji next year for deals.

 

[Soop]

I wonder what the resale market will be like in the next few years for RVs and boats and such. People realizing that their diversion purchase is too much work or it's not really their thing.

 

[Northern Light]

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

Aug 11, 2020

The mishap shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted bike sales around the world as people buy them to ride to work, avoiding public transportation, as well as staying in shape.

The low inventories are an issue at other bike stores including Northern Cycle of Ajax. Colin Munro said almost every bike on the showroom floor has been either pre-sold or is in for repairs.

“There is nothing left to sell,” Munro said.

Bicycle factories, many in China, had to shut down during the pandemic so the supply chain has been interrupted. Munro said at this point if you want to order a bike you may not get it until next year.

“The pre-order dates are for December to March for availability right now and if we don't get on that this week it may take until May or June of next year (to get them)."

It’s not just bicycles – there is also difficulty getting repair parts, tubes and tires.

'There is nothing left to sell': Canada faces bike shortage amid COVID-19 pandemic

When a Toronto woman decided to buy a new bicycle in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic she had no idea how hard it would be to find one.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

This is a common issue in a normal year for seasonal products or those with a seasonal peak.

We all know the story of having a July heatwave and everyone goes looking for a fan or an air conditioner and the vast majority are sold out and no more are coming til next year.

Its the problem of a just-in-time delivery system; of a system of sales designed to maximize capacity at every turn; and that sources product at the cheapest possible price.

These aren't intrinsically bad things.

But when take to, or past their logical extremes, their shortcomings become clear.

Really, in many ways, the story of hospitals and LTC as well.

The former have more issues than simple capacity.

But they reflect a system that in normal conditions exceeds 100% of capacity, has no flexibility or surge capability and which has also suffered from staffing at the lowest possible price as well; not to mention lack of PPE reserves.

All related.

You can't maximize profit and output w/o sacrificing other things.

****

Bicycles and other items noted in this thread would not be in abundant supply if things were done differently in normal times.

But the shortages would be less acute, and felt a few weeks later.

Having just one major supplier here; having a diversified supply chain; having slightly more inventory that you predict will sell and likewise with spare parts; and carrying the extra m2 in your premises to do so.

Taken together would have mitigated this.

But that's just not the world as it is, for the moment.

Whether that will change at all, remains to be seen.

 

[Videodrome]

I envy you

You could if you wanted! I felt totally safe. They took a bunch of precautions.,

 

[Richard White]

You could if you wanted! I felt totally safe. They took a bunch of precautions.,

I have no qualms about going to restaurants, malls etc.

What bothers me more than anything is a packed transit vehicle. I would rather walk than cram onto the TTC with all the people who think they do not need a mask or cannot be bothered to wear it properly.

 

[PinkLucy]

I'm not comfortable with indoors yet, but I've done a couple of patios. Had a lovely lunch celebrating a special occasion at Queen & Kenilworth yesterday. It makes life feel somewhat normal again.

 

[Rufus8]

You could if you wanted! I felt totally safe. They took a bunch of precautions.,

I don't feel right just yet. As for the supposed Russian vaccine, if the ruskies hadn't been such a-holes causing trouble all over the place for no good reason it would be easier to be enthusiastic.
And testing it on the army? That's not cool vlad, not cool at all.

 

[Richard White]

I don't feel right just yet. As for the supposed Russian vaccine, if the ruskies hadn't been such a-holes causing trouble all over the place for no good reason it would be easier to be enthusiastic.
And testing it on the army? That's not cool vlad, not cool at all.

So what happens if this vaccine shows promise amongst those who were inoculated? Will the world still abandon it as a foolhardy endeavour?

 

[W. K. Lis]

So what happens if this vaccine shows promise amongst those who were inoculated? Will the world still abandon it as a foolhardy endeavour?

The problems could be bad reactions, nothing happens, proper dosages or boosters needed, soreness, swelling, allergic reactions, up to the point where the recipient may end up with COVID-19 itself.

 

[lenaitch]

I would think any vaccine that shows promise would be evaluated to our standards, including peer-reviewable trial protocols.

 

[Admiral Beez]

Maybe time for local manufacturers to step in.

The story of CCM: Weston plant created much more than bikes and skates

From link.

A separate UK company since 1971, but CCM’s motorcycles are now available in Canada.

https://www.ccm-motorcycles.com/

Motorsports Canada Sells SYM Motorcycles

Motorsports Canada is the Canadian Distributor for CCM Motorcycles, SYM Motorcycles and Zaeta Motorcycles. Located in Ontario, Canada. We sell Motorcycles, Cubs, Scooters and Dirt Track Bikes. We also sell all replacement parts for all of our bikes.

www.motorsportscanada.ca

 

[Rufus8]

So what happens if this vaccine shows promise amongst those who were inoculated? Will the world still abandon it as a foolhardy endeavour?

No but a fair assessment would be required, not just vlad saying russian is going to save the world. It would have to be accessed by other countries, with no infringement at all. You think the Russians would agree to that? I don't.