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Next Mayor of Toronto?

How do we interpret the fact that Ford has raised only half of what he's allowed to spend? That's pretty weak. It confirms what we see on newspaper comment sections: that Ford supporters are few but loud. They make it appear that they're larger in number.

If this is reflected in the number of volunteers and the money that they have on hand for the get out of the vote push, then George will win that critical phase of the campaign. Smitherman has the money (he was the only candidate to buy TV spots) and the experienced Liberal machine to put in to the get out the vote organization that will decide this race.

nfitz, your numbers are starting to make more and more sense.
 
Interesting story from today.

I was at a subway station, talking with a lady who was a soft Pantalone supporter who is considering Smitherman. I basically was framing the discussion as George has strong progressive credentials, but beyond that, told her that this was a real choice between candidate who was focused on action, and a candidate who harnessed anger but with no substance. As if on cue, a lady came up to us and shouted "I won't vote for Smitherman because he's a gay-wad and a crook", then walked off.

I turned to the pleasant Pantalone lady, "you see what I mean?"

Long story short. I secured another Smitherman supporter.
 
MetroMan said:
^ It could. I just think that if a record number of surburban voters have already cast their ballot then they are under represented in the 18% of undecided.
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At this point almost all of the 18% undecided are actually part of the 50-60% of the city that isn't going to vote at all.
 
^ Which brings up the question: Since this poll is completely random, the percentage of who actually votes for each candidate could completely change the numbers. At least one of the polls done in the same week and showed a 30/30 split represented very likely voters. This Ekos poll is starting to look a little less reliable.
 
The following tidbit from TheStar blog confirms what I had speculated a few pages ago: the EKOS poll was paid for by the pollster and conducted to keep them relevant, because they weren't hired for one. It was attached to a separate unrelated poll on the same call. The fact that it was done over a 9 day span really calls in to question its reliability. Opinions change so quickly in just a few days, let alone over nearly a week and a half.

Unusual poll suggests Ford still in the driver seat

Reporters eager for another Toronto mayoral poll were rewarded Friday by pollster Frank Graves of Ottawa-based EKOS.

It shows Rob Ford with an 8-point lead over George Smitherman and says, based on that and demographic makeup of their supporters, that Ford " is considerably more likely to emerge successfully over Mr. Smitherman on Monday."

The sample size (507) and margin of error (plus or minus 4.4 per cent) are normal for such polls but two things make this one different. It was done by "robocalls" -- automated phone calls, where respondents punch numbers in response to recorded questions, in this case on both landlines and cellphones -- and the duration of the poll -- nine days, between Oct. 13 and 21.

EKOS is the only pollster in Canada that uses robocalls, said president Frank Graves, arguing they are more accurate than the online panels used by the Star's pollster and others. As for the nine-day span (no other poll reported in this campaign has been in the field more than three days), Graves said: "I would like to have it done it faster but it would have been too expensive." He added the mayoral questions on to another survey, he said.

"I'm not happy with the poll. Ideally, I would like to have done it over a shorter time with a bigger sample," he said, adding that he believes the data is reliable enough to show Ford has a "small lead."

Two other surveys conducted during the EKOS's polling period -- a Star-Citytv poll done Oct. 14-15 and another conducted for the Toronto Sun Oct. 15-17 -- both showed Ford and Smitherman tied.

So we go into the election's final weekend not really sure what's going on out there. There are hot rumours of another poll being released Saturday. Of course, as politicians like to remind us -- especially the ones who are trailing -- the only poll that counts is the one on election day.
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I'm going to go by the other recent polls that showed a 30/30 split with Pants down to 10.
 
MetroMan said:
How do we interpret the fact that Ford has raised only half of what he's allowed to spend? That's pretty weak. It confirms what we see on newspaper comment sections: that Ford supporters are few but loud. They make it appear that they're larger in number.
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Ford doesn't strike me as the kind of candidate who's out to secure as much money as he can from voters to fund his campaign, which has thus far needed little of it to push the campaign forward.
 
No matter how frugal you are, a campaign needs money to function. I concede that Ford has benefited from the media latching on to him because of his controversial character but that alone does not make a campaign.

Also, with Ford's volunteers being in the older bracket, how will they hold up to the stamina of an army of young volunteers on the Smitherman campaign? It's going to come down to who can get the most volunteers getting people out to vote on Monday. I'll give Smitherman's more youthful force the advantage there.
 
I certainly don't want anyone to get complacent about George...but who the heck puts a poll in the field for nine days? I agree Ekos is fishy. Will happily eat my words if conventional results over the weekend show a similar trend. The bigger danger is the media focusing too much on it.
 
It's really stupid of EKOS to put out a poll that is likely to be way off in an attempt to put out a poll for the sake of being visible during this election. The fact that their poll will prove to be unreliable will tarnish their image.

The good news is that this poll likely scared a bunch of would be Pantalone supporters to finally change their minds.

A new poll will be out on Saturday. I'm going to bet that it's more in line with the previous polls.
 
Graves also told the Globe that the results of his poll were not volatile through the sampling period--a period in which a half-dozen other polls showed a different trend. My worry was that he would say they had an anti-Smitherman surge at the back end or something.

Anyway yes, on to the next one. I would consider the Ekos poll a data point and nothing more. If it motivates soft Pantalooneys to switch, all the better.
 
Interesting Re: The Ekos poll. A poll over 9 days during a mayoral election campaign? That's pretty weak!

Did someone say a poll is coming out today??
 
MetroMan said:
It's really stupid of EKOS to put out a poll that is likely to be way off in an attempt to put out a poll for the sake of being visible during this election. The fact that their poll will prove to be unreliable will tarnish their image.

The good news is that this poll likely scared a bunch of would be Pantalone supporters to finally change their minds.

A new poll will be out on Saturday. I'm going to bet that it's more in line with the previous polls.
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I'm guessing there's something a little sneaky going on with this poll.

And it's probably not what you think ... it's the sort of thing that would help the Smitherman camp ...
 
It's unreliable as hell, but in reality a small Ford lead will rally the ABF forces. Just like a small Smitherman lead will rally the Ford forces.

How late will we be staying up on Monday before we get a difinitive result?
 
Just one more weekend of campaigning, then my fiancee gets to see me on a regular basis again. I owe her big time for her patience, and have a greater appreciation sacrifices that all political spouses make.
 
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