News   Nov 12, 2024
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Next Mayor of Toronto?

I've kind of leaned on that notion myself, but in this election, Torontonians have surprised me with their support for Ford. It's not because they're all bigots and racists. It's because not everybody is in to politics and knows how the city is run and so they're easily convinced by this man's simplistic message.

To many many many people, politicians are inherently bad. All of them. Like lawyers, they're all corrupt bastards. When a man who's managed to fashion himself as the anti-politician is running for Mayor, who do you think they'll support?

Those undecideds are the people who've paid little attention to the election simply because they're not in to politics, but still want to exercise their voting rights. I'm convinced that their voting patterns will mimic those of the decideds. There may be a sector of the undecideds who are simply pondering between Joe and Smitherman, but I'm not sure it'll be enough to put George over the top.

It's going to come down to how loyal Joe Pantalone's supporters are. I know that a large swath of them already jumped over (like me and other ex-volunteers) but these voters are already represented in the latest polls that put Joe @ 16% That needs to drop to 10% if George is going to have any chance at winning.

Well, I give people too much credit for trying to understand and making informed decisions... if they don't, then, as mentioned before, and as bad as it sounds, they get what they pay/vote for... and we're stuck with it too.

It would be an embarrassing 4 years.

Ford's first order of business: shut down the Urban Toronto Forum!
 
Well, I give people too much credit for trying to understand and making informed decisions... if they don't, then, as mentioned before, and as bad as it sounds, they get what they pay/vote for... and we're stuck with it too.

It would be an embarrassing 4 years.

Ford's first order of business: shut down the Urban Toronto Forum!

And they say Ford Supporters are condescending. :)
 
The Sun endorsement reads like it was written by Sue-Ann Levy, and not by the editorial board as a whole--which has, I think, generally treated Ford with considerable scepticism. It makes the guy sound like the Messiah--no mention whatsoever of the many lies, half-truths, and insane policy ideas that the Sun itself has often been the most aggressive of the papers in criticising. I guess with Rossi out of the picture they felt they had no choice but to fall into line behind then only right-winger left in the race. Still, it is dispiriting that they didn't have something like 'all that said, the guy is a buffoon with no track record of anything who will have to be watched like a hawk, even though we think he is the best choice on the menu.'

I thought the Star endorsement hit the right notes, especially by calling out Joe for the absurdity of sh*ting all over George. A vote for Joe is a vote for Ford, and that point can't be repeated enough.

Does Levy have a 12 year old kid? I think they may have written this one.

I don't read the Sun much.

Do they always write this simplistically?

One sentence paragraphs.

Forth grade level vocabulary.

Their readers should be insulted. This paper obviously takes them for morons.

Really though, they didn't have any choice in their endorsement. They are the paper of the Ford demographic, and those guys are touchy. Endorsing anyone but Ford would have cost them subscriptions.
 
The Sun's endorsement is preaching to the choir... I doubt this endorsement will sway a single vote. As others have said, Ford supporters already know where they stand.

Re: undecided factor: Look at the most recent poll, the one that has Ford slightly ahead
Ford: 44%
Smitherman: 38%
Pants: 16%
Undecided: 16%

Those are decided numbers, if you add up the specific support. (the whole thing adds up to 114).

Among ALL voters, including undecideds (how most polls have been reported til now), it's Ford 37 Smitherman 33 Pants 13. What's notable is that Ford is still high 30s. He has not moved from that spot for months.

Meanwhile, undecideds are down about 10% from September and Smitherman is up about 7%. It seems the undecideds are largely flowing towards Smitherman.
 
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I've kind of leaned on that notion myself, but in this election, Torontonians have surprised me with their support for Ford. It's not because they're all bigots and racists. It's because not everybody is in to politics and knows how the city is run and so they're easily convinced by this man's simplistic message.
This is the same conclusion I've reached and which I'll cling to.

And they say Ford Supporters are condescending. :)

No, they don't.
 
Meanwhile, undecideds are down about 10% from September and Smitherman is up about 7%. It seems the undecideds are largely flowing towards Smitherman.

Yes, but we can't assume that trend will continue as the anti-Ford movement is also in full-swing. If the undecideds are composed of a lot of torn Smitherman/Pantalone voters, then there is still a large amount of potential support for Smitherman out there, but if these undecideds are simply those who aren't even sure if they will bother voting and will follow whoever is in the lead with a sort of sheep mentality, that will not work to Smitherman's advantage.

I'm hoping a large number of Pantalone fans are going to take a look at the polls and realize they can make a huge difference, but I'm braced for the worst. A good chunk (20-25%) Pantalone voters switching to Smitherman could tip the scales.
 
^ Same here. I'm braced for the worst as well. The odds are still in favour of Smitherman re: likely voters, undecideds, Pantalone hold outs but I don't want to be surprised on the night of Oct 25th. Whatever happens, it's going to be a loooong night.
 
I just went ahead and voted for...

Should I go ahead and start a "I just went ahead and voted for George Smitherman" thread? :rolleyes:

Wow... I started this campaign looking for a continuation of most of Miller's policies but with a little more balls to get the unions in check and clean up the budget. I loved Sarah Thomson's ideas and how she came from a business background.

When she dropped out, I flirted with the idea of Mayor George but I ultimately settled for the status quo with Joe. I volunteered for Pants but when it didn't seem like he was connecting with the electorate, and Ford appeared to be gaining distance from the pack, I decided that I needed to start trying to make a real difference with 2 weeks to go. Smitherman got my support and vote.

In ward 19, I cast a vote for Karen Sun to replace Joe Pantalone.
 
I don't read the Sun much.

Do they always write this simplistically?

One sentence paragraphs.

Forth grade level vocabulary.

A critique of the "Toronto Sun" written in one sentence paragraphs and using "forth" instead of "fourth" in a shot at their allegedly limited vocabulary.

Not a personal attack, just too delicious to pass up.
 
Or, indeed, being blamed for four-plus years of Ford. That's what I don't get--does Joe really want to be the guy who puts Ford over the top?
 
I can't for the life of me convince my wife to change her vote from Joe to George and it's driving me nuts.
 
Are there usually many election night parties downtown? I don't have TV at my apartment and would love to just go to a bar with some friends and watch everything unfold. Plus, if Ford wins at least I'll be drunk.

Edit - Just got a Pantalone supporter to switch to Smitherman. Before I talked with him about it he said he was going to wait until the very last poll to see if Pants still had a chance. I confirmed that he has no hope, and a vote for Pants is a vote for Ford. I've also talked with someone else who was thinking that way and hopefully that last poll finally convinces some of the stubborn "principled" people to make a slight concession for the good of the city.
 
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