Moose Rail (National Capital Region)

[kEiThZ]

Sooner or later the Trillium Line will need to be double tracked, that's a given. While we're at it why not get the private sector to pay for those infrastructure upgrades?

Because this isn't just the private sector paying for infrastructure upgrades. MOOSE will want access rights for certain times. They'll want station locations that need zoning approval etc. There's a lot more to this than just laying down track. I don't know at this point whether you're being innocently or wilfully ignorant on this.

In any case, I can't really say that they would benefit all that much, but they wouldn't exactly suffer either, at least not in the way you've described in the past.....At worst, they have to deal with another year of construction which is going to happen anyway.

Umm, no. Worst case scenario is actually service worse than what they have today. That's entirely possible based on how track sharing works out.

And that's after years of delays, which you handily dismiss as "not suffer much".

A one-year delay is me being extremely generous. Like I said, the reality is 2-3 years at minimum. I don't see how a company with zero development experience, no staff and no financing could even negotiate if the City agreed to this tomorrow. They'd need months just to get the right staff in place and move out of Potvin's storage unit into a proper office.

and then they'd have a train they could take to say, Wakefield or something.

People want trains to where they want to actually go everyday. Not some tourist trap run you might go to once a month...at best.

Serious question. Be honest. Do you actually use transit in Ottawa or just shoot the shit about it? Cause I can't even understand the frame of mind of someone who'd say it's okay to risk poor service on Trillium or years of delays in construction for a train to Wakefield. I've never heard a transit user casually dismiss a multi-year delay for service improvement.

What routing would you propose for the Gatineau LRT then?

Exactly what Gatineau has proposed. My only issue is them not converting the Rapibus which means those users have to transfer at Tache.

Why is anyone from Ottawa going to need to transfer to a train going Westwards in Gatineau?

The LRT also runs east of Tache.

Again, the most common destination for those commuting to Gatineau from Ottawa are Terasses and Place des Portages, both a short walk from the end of a rail spur that leads off from the Prince of Wales bridge and is a perfect place for a Trillium Line station.

Again. This is a scheme that's great for Trillium Line users heading to Terrasses or Portage and suboptimal for everybody else. Game out what a Trillium transfer at Tache would mean to different groups of users:

Gatineau to downtown Ottawa: 2 transfers
Confederation Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 2 transfers
Trillium Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer

Now put the transfer at Bayview:

Gatineau to downtown Ottawa: 1 transfers
Confederation Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer
Trillium Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer

Terrasses are Portage are large destinations. They aren't the only destinations by any stretch though. For example, there's over 1800 DND personnel at the Louis St-Laurent complex alone. Pretending that Terrasses and Portage are the only destinations that matter does a disservice to actual regional integration. We should be making it easier to access all of Gatineau. Not just two office complexes for a select subset of 9-5 public servants.

Also, I don't know what your definition of a short walk is. But Terrasses and Portage are over a kilometre away from the Tache-UQO stop that would presumably be used as the interchange. With both of those would get their own stops on Gatineau's LRT (at Montcalm and Pont Portage respectively), I think most people would prefer to transfer onto Gatineau's LRT than make that "short walk", which would be quite the hike in an Ottawa winter.

 

[OCCheetos]

Because this isn't just the private sector paying for infrastructure upgrades. MOOSE will want access rights for certain times. They'll want station locations that need zoning approval etc. There's a lot more to this than just laying down track. I don't know at this point whether you're being innocently or wilfully ignorant on this.

Access from which the city can charge usage fees, among other things. There are definitely going to be other things the city will need to deal with, but outside of anything near the Trillium Line corridor, it's a pretty Ottawa-centric view to be only looking at how this will impact the City of Ottawa...

Umm, no. Worst case scenario is actually service worse than what they have today. That's entirely possible based on how track sharing works out.

Explain how that would happen. Service is currently at best every 12 minutes, service after the completion of Stage 2 is also going to be every 12 minutes (albeit with trains that are double their current length). A fully double tracked corridor would allow for frequencies far greater than what is and what will be offered by the city, even with sharing.

Serious question. Be honest. Do you actually use transit in Ottawa or just shoot the shit about it? Cause I can't even understand the frame of mind of someone who'd say it's okay to risk poor service on Trillium or years of delays in construction for a train to Wakefield. I've never heard a transit user casually dismiss a multi-year delay for service improvement.

I actually take the Trillium Line to and from Carleton every day.
Personally I'm quite unhappy with the way the city handles the Trillium Line. Not only was the last upgrade a flop, but the next upgrade isn't even going to improve service and it's going to involve a 16 month shutdown. And then when it comes time to increase service again they'll have to shut the whole thing down for who knows how long just to increase the capacity by a just enough so that they can repeat the process again and again and again. By the time Stage 2 is complete the Trillium Line will have been shut down for upgrades for roughly 10% of its entire existence.

Now no, I'm not defending MOOSE because I want them to come in and fix my personal transit problems for me on the Trillium Line (no matter how much it may seem that way. I'd much rather the City fix the line properly themselves) but you aren't going to be able to convince me that service is going to be worse based on literally nothing and an extra long shutdown or and extra delay isn't so bad if it means that they won't need to repeat the process again in only a few years.

Exactly what Gatineau has proposed. My only issue is them not converting the Rapibus which means those users have to transfer at Tache.

The proposal doesn't indicate which direction trains would be heading when leaving Bayview, which is what I was asking.

Also, I don't know what you're definition of a short walk is. But Terrasses and Portage are over a kilometre away from the Tache-UQO stop that would presumably be used.

I've been referring to the currently unused rail spur which is located near the new Zibi building and directly across the street from Terasses.

 

[steveintoronto]

Ideally, we could send trains across the bridge from both sides and reduce transfers for everyone, but it's hard to say how difficult that will be at this point.
Generally, it's best if the Trillium Line crosses into Gatineau

Which is exactly City O's justification for keeping the PoW Bridge...depending which day of the week it is:

City asks feds to wait on Prince of Wales Bridge appeal while repair order challenged in court

JON WILLING Ottawa Citizen
Updated: July 13, 2018
[...]
Nothing compels the city under the Railway Act to operate a rail line, or even maintain it in a state of ready-to-use service, the city says in the court filing. Fixing the line for a third-party group, like Moose, would provide a “financial windfall” to a private venture, leaving property taxpayers picking up the tab, the city says.

“The decision compels the city to make significant capital expenditures for no current and likely no future value to Ottawa taxpayers,” the city says in a notice of appeal. “It is disruptive to municipal planning involving both the city and Gatineau and does not take into account the city’s existing efforts to develop a well thought-out, open, comprehensive, and collaborative regional transportation mandate.”
[...]

https://ottawacitizen.com/news/loca...les-bridge-appeal-while-court-hears-challenge

That says many things. First off, of course there's nothing under the "Railway Act"...it's in the Transportation Act. These are the persons mounting an appeal in a Federal Court? And the Transpo Act details precisely the need for maintaining unused RoWs in a condition that allows others to use it if the present owners don't. And contrary to a certain poster's claims, it *IS* all about "regional" co-operation...ostensibly. When it suits their argument.

Fixing the line for a third-party group, like Moose, would provide a “financial windfall” to a private venture

I leave it to Mr Potvin to detail more precisely, but Moose has offered to contribute for both that and refurbishment of the PoW Bridge.

The City has known from the day it acquired the RoW and bridge the responsibilities that came with it. Or if they didn't...they should hire counsel who know what the Law is. Or did they forge ahead oblivious of what legal counsel advised?

https://laws-lois.justice.gc.ca/eng/acts/C-10.4/page-23.html#docCont

Especially note as per link above:

Remedy if bad faith by a railway company

(6) If, on complaint in writing by the interested person, the Agency finds that the railway company is not negotiating in good faith and the Agency considers that a sale, lease or other transfer of the railway line, or the company’s operating interest in the line, to the interested person for continued operation would be commercially fair and reasonable to the parties, the Agency may order the railway company to enter into an agreement with the interested person to effect the transfer and with respect to operating arrangements for the interchange of traffic, subject to the terms and conditions, including consideration, specified by the Agency.

Addendum: As an aside on the phrase "general advantage for/of Canada" as discussed a few posts of mine back:

• Declaration that line is for general advantage of Canada
  
  (2) Whenever a railway company’s rights and obligations under an agreement with VIA Rail Canada Inc. are vested in another person or entity by subsection (1), the portion of the railway line to which the agreement relates is hereby declared, as of the day the transfer takes place, to be a work for the general advantage of Canada.

That doesn't pertain in that regard in this instance, but the PoW Bridge, originating railway and other matters were federally enabled by an Act of Parliament for "the general advantage of Canada". It certainly applies in other contentious issues for VIA.

I look forward to the Court of Appeal's sitting on this case. Should be fun...

 

[kEiThZ]

Access from which the city can charge fees.

The fees aren't the issue. Again, this is more than just laying track. Does MOOSE even know exactly where they want their stations? Do they have designs and have they acquired the land? All that has to be accounted for before the city tender's a contract for Trillium Stage 2, because they'll now have to account for everything MOOSE needs.

Explain how that would happen. Service is currently at best every 12 minutes, service after the completion of Stage 2 is also going to be every 12 minutes (albeit with trains that are double their current length). A fully double tracked corridor would allow for frequencies far greater than what is and what will be offered by the city, even with sharing.

A whole number of ways. Everything from, "we pay for this only if we get exclusivity during peak hours" to their trains requiring some kind of temporal separation to their trains having different dwell times. Keep in that we are talking about twin tracks, not triple tracks here, with stop spacing that won't practically allow the bypass of a stopped train and apparently different station locations for MOOSE and OC Transpo.

Cna you confirm where you read 12 min headways after Stage 2? Everything I've read is better than that.

And then when it comes time to increase service again they'll have to shut the whole thing down for who knows how long

Laying a second track can be done while the other track is operating. I don't know where you got the idea that a full shutdown was necessary for twin tracking.

The proposal doesn't indicate which direction trains would be heading when leaving Bayview, which is what I was asking.

I would presume peak direction. But I don't see why it couldn't be bidirectional with departures in both directions.

I've been referring to the currently unused rail spur which is located near the new Zibi building and directly across the street from Terasses.

I don't think you can assume that Gatineau would be okay with placing the station wherever you want. Tache-UQO is the junction of the Rapibus, the closest station to the PoW bridge and right beside a university campus which is also somewhat of a trip generator. I just can't see Gatineau being okay with bypassing Tache for a station beside a condo just cause Ottawa feels like it. That transfer/terminus has to work for them too.

Now no, I'm not defending MOOSE because I want them to come in and fix my personal transit problems for me on the Trillium Line

Certainly seems that way. Your entire perspective seems to be coloured by this. Right down to insisting on a transfer point that screws over thousands of Gatineau residents trying to get into Ottawa. You also seem to be okay with MOOSE facilitating massive sprawl if it shaves off a few minutes between trains for you.

 

[OCCheetos]

The fees aren't the issue. Again, this is more than just laying track. Does MOOSE even know exactly where they want their stations? Do they have designs and have they acquired the land? All that has to be accounted for before the city tender's a contract for Trillium Stage 2, because they'll now have to account for everything MOOSE needs.

Fair points.

A whole number of ways. Everything from, "we pay for this only if we get exclusivity during peak hours" to their trains requiring some kind of temporal separation to their trains having different dwell times. Keep in that we are talking about twin tracks, not triple tracks here, with stop spacing that won't practically allow the bypass of a stopped train and apparently different station locations for MOOSE and OC Transpo.

1. So then the city says "too bad so sad" and the deal's off. Done. The city obviously doesn't have a need to rely on MOOSE's capital investments.
2. Then the city can force MOOSE to use trains that don't require temporal separation on the corridor. (Personally I've never agreed with the idea that they need heavy-rail bi-level trains) They may be legally required to give access to MOOSE, but I'm not sure if that would allow MOOSE to supersede the waivers that the Trillium Line operates with.
3. Ideally they could both use the same type of vehicle (the FLIRT) and dwell times would be identical, but that's just me.
4. What station locations would be different? (Other than Bayview because of the bypass).

Cna you confirm where you read 12 min headways after Stage 2? Everything I've read is better than that.

The addendum to the EA published last month includes details of a computer simulation describing a single train's trip in AM peak at 12 minute headways.
https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/default/files/Appendix C _Natural_and_Air_Quality_TRI_Provincial_EA_Addendum_Appendices.pdf#page=117
(page 117 if the link doesn't work)
It was also confirmed to me by email when I asked the Stage 2 team.

That's a hard cap too. There's no way to increase frequencies without adding more track.

Laying a second track can be done while the other track is operating. I don't know where you got the idea that a full shutdown was necessary for twin tracking.

How do you suppose the city will widen the Rideau River bridge and the Dow's Lake tunnel, and the trench north of the tunnel while the line is in operation? I'm sure it'd be possible with limited shutdowns, but the city hasn't exactly shown themselves to be willing to go to those kinds of expenses for the Trillium Line.
Why is a shutdown for Stage 2 required? The city's reason: "because they can't operate trains while workers are working along the tracks".

I don't think you can assume that Gatineau would be okay with placing the station wherever you want. Tache-UQO is the junction of the Rapibus, the closest station to the PoW bridge and right beside a university campus which is also somewhat of a trip generator. I just can't see Gatineau being okay with bypassing Tache for a station beside condo just cause Ottawa feels like it. That transfer/terminus has to work for them too.

I think we can both just hope that when it comes time to implement a/the crossing that both cities will actually cooperate and work out a solution that benefits the majority of users.

Certainly seems that way. You're entire perspective seems to be coloured by this. Right down to insisting on a transfer point that screws over thousands of Gatineau residents trying to get into Ottawa. You also seem to be okay with MOOSE facilitating massive sprawl if it shaves off a few minutes between trains for you.

I've never said that the facilitation of urban sprawl was okay. AFAIK the discussion about transfer points between Ottawa and Gatineau wasn't even really related to MOOSE but it's also based on observations. Currently, the buses feeding into Ottawa from Gatineau work fine, but going the other way, this is a regular occurrence:

In any case, I primarily disagree with your assessment that MOOSE would be ultimately detrimental to Ottawa's transportation system, but on most other things I currently agree with.

 

[kEiThZ]

So then the city says "too bad so sad" and the deal's off.

Which is exactly what is happening right now. If MOOSE showed up with competent staff and an actual chequebook, they'd be treated very differently.

I worked on an acquisition project where we had a potential bidder that was considering a multi-billion dollar unsolicited bid to privatize part of the air force. I didn't like their ideas but we definitely heard them out. And despite disagreeing there were many compelling points to their pitch I agreed with. They were competent. They were professional. And as one of the largest funds in the world, had the money to pull it off. They didn't hand out glossy brochures. They came with a team of MBAs and ops analysts to present.

There's a reason nobody at City Hall takes Joseph Potvin seriously. And if I were in their shoes I wouldn't either. You are only a serious contender when you have everything lined up. Not before that. And a glossy brochure doesn't make you a contender. Even if the city was considering something like this, MOOSE would not pass pre-qualification. They don't have the finances or expertise to even come close to a high risk execution.

They may be legally required to give access to MOOSE,

Nothing says they have to give MOOSE access on favourable terms that works for their business plan. Given that the corridor is rammed, MOOSE could well be restricted to operating outside business hours. And while the CTA can order you to share, it won't order you to facilitate a material change to your infrastructure (double track) for the purpose of facilitating another operator's business plans.

What station locations would be different?

Getting a stop depends entirely on their rent-seeking condominium agreement? I take that to mean if not enough people sign up near South Keys, there will be no stop at South Keys, or they'll build another station where they can get clients. What's the likelihood existing businesses and residents in the vicinity of a stop pay up knowing OC Transpo will provide them service without any extra payment?

The addendum to the EA published last month includes details of a computer simulation describing a single train's trip in AM peak at 12 minute headways.
https://documents.ottawa.ca/sites/default/files/Appendix C _Natural_and_Air_Quality_TRI_Provincial_EA_Addendum_Appendices.pdf#page=117
(page 117 if the link doesn't work)
It was also confirmed to me by email when I asked the Stage 2 team.

That's a hard cap too. There's no way to increase frequencies without adding more track.

I take that to mean that is what they modeled and what they are launching with. Nowhere does it say that 12 min headways is the hard limit. And their past analyses have all said 8-10 mins was possible. If that's wrong, I certainly hope double tracking is part of Stage 3 to boost frequencies.

Also 12 min on each branch would imply combined frequencies of 6 min from South Keys northwards. I think that's pretty decent.

How do you suppose the city will widen the Rideau River bridge and the Dow's Lake tunnel,

Very carefully?

On a serious note, it's entirely possible to do that work with limited closures. Expanding existing tunnels and bridges is not near as complex as building them from scratch. A full closure for those would definitely not take a year.

I think we can both just hope that when it comes time to implement a/the crossing that both cities will actually cooperate and work out a solution that benefits the majority of users.

Which would be an interchange at Bayview. Exactly why Gatineau proposed it.

I've never said that the facilitation of urban sprawl was okay.

The very concept of MOOSE requires massive sprawl. Their entire business plan is infeasible without having hundreds of thousands of residents move to the suburbs and exurbs. As currently constituted, you can't support MOOSE without supporting sprawl. Let's not forget they want to give you a free train ride in exchange for "taxing" your property or a property you rely on in the vicinity of their station. That requires you to live or use services near their stations. That can't happen without sprawl.

I wouldn't care nearly as much if this was a bid to simply offer a GO Transit like commuter rail serviceto Barrhaven and Terry Fox, where users simply paid a premium fare (like GO).

Currently, the buses feeding into Ottawa from Gatineau work fine, but going the other way, this is a regular occurrence:

First off, if you think a little over a dozen people lining up for a bus is a huge deal, I don't know what to tell you.

Next, these people will have the option when the Confederation Line opens to transfer on to an STO bus at Lyon instead of trying to get across in a less frequent OC Transpo bus:

http://www.sto.ca/index.php?id=696&L=en#c11206

And finally, it will be even better for them when they can transfer at Bayview onto an STO LRT waiting on the platform instead of lining up for a bus to get across the river. If that Gatineau LRT works out as planned with the stops as currently planned in Hull, I can see OC Transpo eliminating all bus service across the river. Those routes don't service anything beyond the very downtown of Hull anyway. And mostly just commuter services.

I've worked across the river. OC Transpo's Hull routes only make sense for a BRT where you're staying on from the start or transferring on at an interchange. STO is way better for getting across outside of the fixed commuter travel patterns.

 

[OCCheetos]

Which is exactly what is happening right now. If MOOSE showed up with competent staff and an actual chequebook, they'd be treated very differently.

I worked on an acquisition project where we had a potential bidder that was considering a multi-billion dollar unsolicited bid to privatize part of the air force. I didn't like their ideas but we definitely heard them out. And despite disagreeing there were many compelling points to their pitch I agreed with. They were competent. They were professional. And as one of the largest funds in the world, had the money to pull it off. They didn't hand out glossy brochures. They came with a team of MBAs and ops analysts to present.

There's a reason nobody at City Hall takes Joseph Potvin seriously. And if I were in their shoes I wouldn't either. You are only a serious contender when you have everything lined up. Not before that. And a glossy brochure doesn't make you a contender. Even if the city was considering something like this, MOOSE would not pass pre-qualification. They don't have the finances or expertise to even come close to a high risk execution.

So then we agree, the city has every capability of defending itself and its interests.

Getting a stop depends entirely on their rent-seeking condominium agreement? I take that to mean if not enough people sign up near South Keys, there will be no stop at South Keys, or they'll build another station where they can get clients. What's the likelihood existing businesses and residents in the vicinity of a stop pay up knowing OC Transpo will provide them service without any extra payment?

MOOSE has said that there would be transfer points to OC Transpo and Mooney's Bay (what they meant by Greenboro, apparently) and Bayview. They don't seem interested in any other stations along the Trillium Line. (Although I wonder if that means they've abandoned the idea of a station at Carleton? This is from their latest publications, btw).

I take that to mean that is what they modeled and what they are launching with. Nowhere does it say that 12 min headways is the hard limit. And their past analyses have all said 8-10 mins was possible. If that's wrong, I certainly hope double tracking is part of Stage 3 to boost frequencies.

Also 12 min on each branch would imply combined frequencies of 6 min from South Keys northwards. I think that's pretty decent.

I wish that were the case.

And no, the Airport Spur is an entirely separate service in which users will have to transfer at South Keys onto the mainline.
Maybe if they get the dwell times and signal timings just right they can shave it down to 10 minutes, but I wouldn't count on it.

Very carefully?

On a serious note, it's entirely possible to do that work with limited closures. Expanding existing tunnels and bridges is not near as complex as building them from scratch. A full closure for those would definitely not take a year.

Since their current work involves none of that (but does include rehabilitation work on both the tunnel and the bridge) but will still be a 16 month closure, I'm not very hopeful that that will happen.
Edit: The last upgrade required a 4-month shutdown just to install two passing tracks in places that didn't even need widening (and then the opening of the upgrade was delayed by a year and didn't even attain the desired result).

 

[kEiThZ]

So then we agree, the city has every capability of defending itself and its interests.

Nobody ever said the city couldn't defend itself. What we are discussing here is whether anybody should take MOOSE seriously and actually consider their proposal. Especially, when supporters like yourself, are now suggesting that delaying Trillium Stage 2, for probably several years is acceptable.

MOOSE has said that there would be transfer points to OC Transpo and Mooney's Bay (what they meant by Greenboro, apparently) and Bayview. They don't seem interested in any other stations along the Trillium Line. (Although I wonder if that means they've abandoned the idea of a station at Carleton? This is from their latest publications, btw).

I was assuming they'd be stopping at every station or close enough in Ottawa. This is even worse. So now you have a service that won't stop at most places in Ottawa, that has to share tracks with a service that does. Again, what exactly is MOOSE offering that is actually beneficial to people who live in Ottawa? I don't see much.

And no, the Airport Spur is an entirely separate service in which users will have to transfer at South Keys onto the mainline.
Maybe if they get the dwell times and signal timings just right they can shave it down to 10 minutes, but I wouldn't count on it.

I hope Stage 3 includes double tracking. But at the end of the day, a reminder that Trillium Line has demand forecasts lower than some BRT corridors in Ottawa. So I don't blame them for putting that money into an extension over double tracking at this point.

Since their current work involves none of that (but does include rehabilitation work on both the tunnel and the bridge) but will still be a 16 month closure, I'm not very hopeful that that will happen.
Edit: The last upgrade required a 4-month shutdown just to install two passing tracks in places that didn't even need widening (and then the opening of the upgrade was delayed by a year and didn't even attain the desired result).

Nothing at all says that future work has to happen this way. But it is undoubtedly cheaper and faster to work this way. We also don't know what preparatory work is included in Stage 2. They may do enough that expanding the tunnel and bridge becomes less onerous in the future. The longer platforms in the tunneled stations of the Confederation Line shows such forethought.

You've dodged my point on sprawl and MOOSE's business case. I'd like to know why you think it's okay to support a proposal whose very success is predicated on absolutely unprecedented (for this region...and possibly country) suburban and exurban expansion. MOOSE wants to turn Ottawa into Atlanta or Houston. I'd like to know why you think this should be supported.

 

[OCCheetos]

Nobody ever said the city couldn't defend itself. What we are discussing here is whether anybody should take MOOSE seriously and actually consider their proposal. Especially, when supporters like yourself, are now suggesting that delaying Trillium Stage 2, for probably several years is acceptable.

So then the notion that an implementation of MOOSE's would be harmful to the city's transit is ridiculous because the city is capable of defending its interests, right? (Barring construction of course)
I thought you had suggested that Stage 2 be constructed and then several years later than MOOSE's plan be implemented on top of that (my bad). In any case, as I've mentioned it's not like we'll be getting that big of a service improvement from Stage 2 anyway (at least one the relevant section, between Greenboro and Bayview). Longer trains, that's it. (More on that later).

I was assuming they'd be stopping at every station or close enough in Ottawa. This is even worse. So now you have a service that won't stop at most places in Ottawa, that has to share tracks with a service that does. Again, what exactly is MOOSE offering that is actually beneficial to people who live in Ottawa? I don't see much.

It doesn't, but that isn't exactly a surprise or a well kept secret... You've been suggesting that an implementation of MOOSE's plan would be detrimental to transit along the Trillium Line corridor for the residents of Ottawa, but what I'm trying to argue is that it wouldn't be the case (or at the very least that it wouldn't need to be the case). If it can be implemented and ultimately not affect the Trillium Line in any negative way (and even in some limited ways benefit it), then I don't see why it matters if it is targeted at residents of Ottawa, or not. In any case, it would also provide better connections across the city and as of right now would provide rail transit to Barrhaven and Kanata (neither of which have LRT yet, and may not for another decade. Though this would only be beneficial if and only if MOOSE somehow became operational before Stage 3 is implemented).

I hope Stage 3 includes double tracking. But at the end of the day, a reminder that Trillium Line has demand forecasts lower than some BRT corridors in Ottawa. So I don't blame them for putting that money into an extension over double tracking at this point.

I hope it does too, but it will probably depend on how far off in the future Stage 3 is. AFAIK the city won't be in a position to invest in major transit projects until after 2031 (due to the high cost of Stage 1 and 2) but Jim Watson is still pushing ahead with the studies for Stage 3 in the hopes that the provincial and federal governments might be able to foot the bill. If that happens, I can't see the Trillium Line being double tracked as part of Stage 3 (although an extension into Gatineau might, assuming that's what the planners decide on).

The two biggest existing problems on the Trillium Line are currently peak capacity and general frequency. It is not uncommon for Carleton-bound trains to leave passengers behind at Mooney's Bay because the train simply cannot carry more passengers (it's happened to me before). Generally, the 12 minute frequency of the line isn't particularly useful either. Considering that the primary users of the Trillium Line are students, imagine the following scenario: You're on your way to school and you need to catch a train from Greenboro to get to your 8:35 class but your bus was late (as is quite common in Ottawa) and well, you've missed the train and your SOL because the next train doesn't depart for another 12 minutes and so you get to class late because of it. That's not great. They could have (and in my opinion, should have) doubled the capacity of the line by doubling the frequency along the line instead of just buying new trains that are double the length of the existing ones. This is similar to a lot of complaints people had when they started using double deckers. Higher capacity buses can carry more people so you don't need as many, right? "Why use many bus if few do trick?" But then frequencies get cut and transit becomes more inconvenient to use and everyone ends up unhappy (and there are a lot of people who aren't happy with OC Transpo in Ottawa... just browse /r/Ottawa or even just this thread on Twitter from yesterday)

So now, we're still going to have 12 minute frequencies, longer trains, and an extension (a double tracked extension I might add) out to a neighbourhood that barely exists yet. If and when the growth that the extension is being built to meet occurs, then we'll just have to repeat the process once the longer trains can't handle the increased passenger load at those poor frequencies and we won't have the flexibility to add more trains to handle peak loads.

It's pretty common to hear people say that the mayor and city council are beholden to the suburbs while leaving transit inside the greenbelt to well, "suck" and I think this may be a good example of that.

Nothing at all says that future work has to happen this way. But it is undoubtedly cheaper and faster to work this way. We also don't know what preparatory work is included in Stage 2. They may do enough that expanding the tunnel and bridge becomes less onerous in the future. The longer platforms in the tunneled stations of the Confederation Line shows such forethought.

It doesn't have to, but given the city's track record with the line so far, it doesn't look promising...
The work in the tunnel is just to prevent water from leaking in from the lake above. The bridge work is apparently structurally related, so they may repair it to a point where a second span could be put in without needing to re-pier the bridge, but who knows. The grade separation at the Ellwood diamond is being built to only accommodate one track and a second one will need to be built in the future...

I don't think it will surprise anyone if they city decides that they need to shut down the line for extended periods in order to double track it simply because they'll go for the cheapest option on the Trillium Line.

You've dodged my point on sprawl and MOOSE's business case. I'd like to know why you think it's okay to support a proposal whose very success is predicated on absolutely unprecedented (for this region...and possibly country) suburban and exurban expansion. MOOSE wants to turn Ottawa into Atlanta or Houston. I'd like to know why you think this should be supported.

IIRC you once said you'd be more supportive of their proposal if they were looking to build "cute Eurpoean villages" instead of wide spread sprawl, and I agree with that. I don't think that they should allow or depend on uncontrolled sprawl for their plan. Most of the things we've discussed has been about the impact MOOSE would have on transit within the city (mainly on the Trillium Line). I've never said that I fully support MOOSE, I just disagree with your assessment of the transit impact of their proposal.

 

[gweed123]

Again. This is a scheme that's great for Trillium Line users heading to Terrasses or Portage and suboptimal for everybody else. Game out what a Trillium transfer at Tache would mean to different groups of users:

Gatineau to downtown Ottawa: 2 transfers
Confederation Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 2 transfers
Trillium Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer

Now put the transfer at Bayview:

Gatineau to downtown Ottawa: 1 transfers
Confederation Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer
Trillium Line to Aylmer/Plateau or Hull: 1 transfer

What I'd like to see is the PoW bridge double-tracked, with Gatineau LRT service extending to at least Bayview, and Trillium Line service extending to Place du Portage. I say at least Bayview because I acknowledge that there may be some operational difficulties with having Bayview be the end-of-line. It may be better to triple track a station like Carling and have that function as the EOL instead (it would also provide a connection to the Carling LRT).

This would result in a service overlap, but at least you would be forcing fewer transfers for people who only want to go one or two stops on the other side.

 

[kEiThZ]

So then the notion that an implementation of MOOSE's would be harmful to the city's transit is ridiculous

Ummm. No. There's more to the city's interest than just transit operation. I don't think sprawl on steroids is not in the city's interest either.

but what I'm trying to argue is that it wouldn't be the case (or at the very least that it wouldn't need to be the case).

I think Potvin showed his cards when he argued that ultimately the city doesn't need to operate on the corridor. That tells me the needs of Ottawa residents are absolutely subordinate to outlying Moose customers. You think 12 mins is bad now? How would you feel about Moose trains 20 mins apart instead?

There's exactly zero guarantee on what service can be offered because Potvin himself does not know. He doesn't know what he can offer because he's never studied it and he doesn't have a financial plan in place to know what capabilities his company can deliver. So I prefer to err on the side of caution. And I think the City and Council are right to dismiss him until he actually has a serious proposal with real data and real analysis. Also, if we're going to allow a suburban system to operate, I fail to see why it shouldn't be put out for an open bid.

Though this would only be beneficial if and only if MOOSE somehow became operational before Stage 3 is implemented).

At the rate Moose is going, they'll have their feasibility study for a feasibility study done by then.

They could have (and in my opinion, should have) doubled the capacity of the line by doubling the frequency along the line instead of just buying new trains that are double the length of the existing ones.

All depends on how much money they had after Stage 2 Confederation Line and how much twinning would cost.

They made the right call investing the bulk of Stage 2 funds in the Confederation Line. That's what displaces the most buses. It's the highest return on operational savings and capital reduction. Fewer buses. Fewer drivers.

I don't think that they should allow or depend on uncontrolled sprawl for their plan.

First of all their plan requires a massive diversion of all future growth to the suburbs and exurbs. Next, there's not much they can do to prevent these towns from simply selling newcomers acre lots and 3000 sqft homes. Heck, that's really the only pitch here. It's pretty ridiculous to suggest that people are going to move to Smiths Falls or Arnprior to live in a condo. I don't know how anybody can suggest that with a straight face.

This would result in a service overlap, but at least you would be forcing fewer transfers for people who only want to go one or two stops on the other side.

Overlap would be great. But I'm not sure there's enough capacity for it, even if twin tracked. It all depends on how many LRT branches Gatineau wants crossing the river. Ultimately though, it's pretty obvious that Trillium to Gatineau transfers would the smallest proportion out of Confederation to Gatineau and Gatineau to Ottawa transfers. So if choices have to be made, I fail to see why forcing Confederation Line and STO riders to transfer twice makes more sense. Trillium Line riders face the exact same number of transfers on either side of the river. The only difference is that they could arguably walk to their destination. And even this is debatable with every map I've ever seen showing a connection at Tache-UQO. In any event, that's some to discuss when the time comes and once Gatineau has something more first to discuss.

 

[OCCheetos]

Ummm. No. There's more to the city's interest than just transit operation. I don't think sprawl on steroids is not in the city's interest either.

Again, I was only talking about transit impacts.

I think Potvin showed his cards when he argued that ultimately the city doesn't need to operate on the corridor. That tells me the needs of Ottawa residents are absolutely subordinate to outlying Moose customers. You think 12 mins is bad now? How would you feel about Moose trains 20 mins apart instead?

Of course I'd be unhappy about 20 minute frequencies which is why I asked Mr. Potvin about that several months ago. He said MOOSE would provide 5 minute frequencies along the line (assuming they replaced the Trillium Line on the corridor). Of course, I'd want to see some actual documentation that shows that this will be possible before I would consider throwing any support behind the plan (not that I would fully support MOOSE just based on Trillium Line frequencies, if that wasn't clear).

All depends on how much money they had after Stage 2 Confederation Line and how much twinning would cost.

They made the right call investing the bulk of Stage 2 funds in the Confederation Line. That's what displaces the most buses. It's the highest return on operational savings and capital reduction. Fewer buses. Fewer drivers.

There was an article (that I can't find right now) that said that electrification would cost ~$300 million and that double tracking and electrification would cost a bit over ~$1 billion. So, the cost of double tracking alone would be roughly around $600-700 million.
The Trillium Line portion of Stage 2 is estimated to cost $535 million.

I agree that the Confederation Line was priority, but I do wonder if the Trillium Line portion of the project could have been better.

 

[kEiThZ]

Again, I was only talking about transit impacts.

This is a bit of a red herring. Nobody has ever insinuated that the city was incapable of protecting its interests on the rail file. Don't know where you got this idea. There are issues though with what the CTA can compel them to do that are definitely cause for concern.

Of course, I'd want to see some actual documentation that shows that this will be possible before I would consider throwing any support behind the plan

I don't see you qualifying your support at all. You're willing to have the city open negotiations with a company that doesn't have a proper office, staff or lines of capital. That's a rather blank cheque to give someone. I think Potvin's a political threat. And I'll always be worried about anti-intensification nutter like Doucet taking up Potvin's cause. As an actual business? Moose is a non-entity until someone shows up with hundreds of millions of dollars to fund them.

There was an article (that I can't find right now) that said that electrification would cost ~$300 million and that double tracking and electrification would cost a bit over ~$1 billion. So, the cost of double tracking alone would be roughly around $600-700 million.
The Trillium Line portion of Stage 2 is estimated to cost $535 million.

I agree that the Confederation Line was priority, but I do wonder if the Trillium Line portion of the project could have been better.

Given limited resources, I am okay with the the choice they made. I would not agree with diverting funds from the Confederation Line to the Trillium Line, unless they could show that the diversion would displace the same or a greater amount of buses.

Quite frankly the best use of the corridor would have been BRT. They'd get higher throughput in riders than rail, with much higher service frequencies. And given that the Trillium Line manages less than 3000 pphpd, that's probably lower than most of the BRT corridors in the city. Since that's not an option, and no more money is available, this comes down to a simple choice. Modernize and extend while keeping the same level of service, or spend it all improving service. If they just double-tracked and electrified, they would have used it all up reaching South Keys and left Riverside South and Leitrim without any service. Using the money to go as far as they can is a great idea. It also leaves room to deploy any federal or provincial funds that are released quickly. They don't need long and massive analysis to add track if money comes their way.

 

[mdrejhon]

Putting things into perspective....Throwback Tuesday style.

The original Trillium Line ended up being a really cheap LRT -- a mere 21 million dollars. Yes, twenty-one. Yes, the mere price less than two dozen Toronto detached homes.

Utilizing an existing railroad right-of-way -- that luckily had the saving grace of a "Carleton University" stop to bring passengers -- a mere three diesel powered trainsets (two active and one spare), and five stops. It succeeded beyond expectations, with more passengers in the first year than expected thanks to Carleton University demand.

Alas, the roots as an inexpensive shoestring LRT, means it's very hard to cheaply upgrade it to five-digit ppphpd because that now requires a rebuild of the railroad corridor. Better to bring demand first (extend it) and have people complain for funding a very expensive double-tracking later. Get more stations for less money first, to get the demand necessary to double-track. Electrify and incrementally lengthen the trains first (consists) -- and the crossing stations -- and get a lot more ppphpd. Not Confederation league, but a jump upwards from 3,000 is possible.

Still an incredible expansion of a $21 million LRT.

 

[kEiThZ]

Putting things into perspective....Throwback Tuesday style.

The original Trillium Line ended up being a really cheap LRT -- a mere 21 million dollars. Yes, twenty-one. Yes, the mere price less than two dozen Toronto detached homes.

Utilizing an existing railroad right-of-way -- that luckily had the saving grace of a "Carleton University" stop to bring passengers -- a mere three diesel powered trainsets (two active and one spare), and five stops. It succeeded beyond expectations, with more passengers in the first year than expected thanks to Carleton University demand.

Alas, the roots as an inexpensive shoestring LRT, means it's very hard to cheaply upgrade it to five-digit ppphpd because that now requires a rebuild of the railroad corridor. Better to bring demand first (extend it) and have people complain for funding a very expensive double-tracking later. Get more stations for less money first, to get the demand necessary to double-track. Electrify and incrementally lengthen the trains first (consists) -- and the crossing stations -- and get a lot more ppphpd. Not Confederation league, but a jump upwards from 3,000 is possible.

Still an incredible expansion of a $21 million LRT.

As a demonstration project the O-Train was indeed fantastic. As a transit line though? Trillium is pretty mediocre. Look at these stats:

http://www.octranspo.com/about-octranspo/reports_and_stats

The Transitway moves in 1.5 hrs at peak, what the Trillium Line moves in a day. The Transitway moves in 15 weekdays what the Trillium Line does in a year. And these are stats from a year when the chunk of the actual Transitway is closed!

Their EPR says 2500 pphpd. I was being generous when I rounded up to 3000. Basically, it's a connection between Greenboro, Carleton and Bayview with limited trip generation in between. We'll see how much the extension, the airport spur and infill stations add.

Fundamentally, geography sort of screws this corridor over. For a lot of people in the West, after Stage 2, connecting directly to the Confederation Line is just as easy or easier, and one less transfer heading downtown. And if you're in the East or centre, just stay on the bus, as your bus makes its way to Hurdman along the Southeast Transitway. And that geography is why investment in the Confederation Line will always take precedence. It'll be interesting to see riderhsip projections for the Stage 3 proposals. Would the extensions into Barrhaven and Kanata generate more ridership than simply spending the billion bucks electrifying and twinning the Trillium Line.