Metrolinx: Sheppard East LRT (In Design)

[ehlow]

Disastrous Scarborough subway?

First of all, I detest the term "Scarborough subway". Call it what it is: a (Bloor-)Danforth extension.

Second, this extension will be one of the best-used possible subways to be built. I don't understand why people are against it.

Well I wish we had gone ahead with the current BD extension plan in the first place instead of wasting so much time and money on one plan, then switching plans. We could've made years of progress by now. It's the plan-switching that bothers me.

I personally think it will have reasonable to good ridership, certainly way more than Sheppard. Also not having to bus the SRT riders for 2-3 years is a big benefit. I think this could be a core line for Scarborough with buses feeding into it.

Although I agree with the subway extension, I disagree with the reasons commonly used to justify it. This relates to the name. The whole reason it's called "Scarborough subway" is so that various politicians can say they "built" a subway in Scarborough.

 

[andrewpmk]

Well I wish we had gone ahead with the current BD extension plan in the first place instead of wasting so much time and money on one plan, then switching plans. We could've made years of progress by now. It's the plan-switching that bothers me.

I personally think it will have reasonable to good ridership, certainly way more than Sheppard. Also not having to bus the SRT riders for 2-3 years is a big benefit. I think this could be a core line for Scarborough with buses feeding into it.

Although I agree with the subway extension, I disagree with the reasons commonly used to justify it. This relates to the name. The whole reason it's called "Scarborough subway" is so that various politicians can say they "built" a subway in Scarborough.

It is sort of ridiculous seeing all the massive numbers of condos get built on Sheppard (just saw an ad promoting yet another one at Don Mills while riding the Yonge subway today) and to think that this bizarre plan of building two incompatible types of rail with different types of electrification and track gauge, which provides no direct service to Scarborough Centre and gets rid of the 190, and isn't much faster than the existing 85 bus, actually still makes any sense. Has anyone tried to keep track of how many condos have been built along Sheppard somewhere between Allen and Kennedy since 2007, which this plan was first proposed? Probably quite a few dozen. Meanwhile the BD extension proposal has lots of development at one station (Scarborough Centre) and zero new development at all the other stations. The only thing favouring the BD extension over Sheppard is that it goes "downtown", which means it goes to Bloor-Yonge which has had zero employment growth in the last 20 years and using either line, you have to transfer to the Yonge line to get to Union Station where most of the newer office buildings in Toronto are located. In terms of residential development Sheppard wins by a large margin, and Sheppard follows the busy 401 corridor and ought to get a lot of ridership from that. Though like Finch, this plan is obviously on life support and it is very unlikely that either subway or LRT will get built at all.

 

[ehlow]

It is sort of ridiculous seeing all the massive numbers of condos get built on Sheppard (just saw an ad promoting yet another one at Don Mills while riding the Yonge subway today) and to think that this bizarre plan of building two incompatible types of rail with different types of electrification and track gauge, which provides no direct service to Scarborough Centre and gets rid of the 190, and isn't much faster than the existing 85 bus, actually still makes any sense. Has anyone tried to keep track of how many condos have been built along Sheppard somewhere between Allen and Kennedy since 2007, which this plan was first proposed? Probably quite a few dozen. Meanwhile the BD extension proposal has lots of development at one station (Scarborough Centre) and zero new development at all the other stations. The only thing favouring the BD extension over Sheppard is that it goes "downtown", which means it goes to Bloor-Yonge which has had zero employment growth in the last 20 years and using either line, you have to transfer to the Yonge line to get to Union Station where most of the newer office buildings in Toronto are located. In terms of residential development Sheppard wins by a large margin, and Sheppard follows the busy 401 corridor and ought to get a lot of ridership from that. Though like Finch, this plan is obviously on life support and it is very unlikely that either subway or LRT will get built at all.

As you said, the fact that it goes downtown is probably why the BD extension will have much higher ridership the Sheppard. The SRT already has 80% of Sheppard's ridership, and the BD extension will go further north and be a much better and higher capacity service than the SRT. BD extension will get ridership from either the Sheppard LRT or bus, and all the other frequent buses in Scarborough. Near the Sheppard subway, most frequent feeder buses feed into the Yonge subway, not Sheppard subway (ex. Finch east bus). The BD extension will be a trunk line into downtown with lots of feeder buses, a model that generates lots of ridership.

 

[M II A II R II K]

That will push the BD to capacity.

 

[rbt]

almost every single lrt supporter I talk to is amazed when i tell them this will get the same ridership as the DRL. They just don't believe me. (mind you the DRL ridership study was done before the subway change so its numbers are probably a bit higher than scarborough's, though only because of scarborough)

Hmm? Are you sure? Neither the DRL or Scarborough subway has had a proper EA yet, but I thought the DRL 2031 estimate was about 24,000 peak hour ridership and Scarborough subway 2031 estimate was closer to 9,500 peak hour ridership?

On opening day you might be right. Or are you using an "all-day" ridership number or something like that?

 

[innsertnamehere]

DRL peak was 10,000. 12,000 with the second phase. Bloor doesn't reach 24,000 yet (though it probably will after scarborough), I can't see the DRL reaching that number. 9,500 vs 10,000, (or more likely 12,000 as the transit taxes will have both phases built at once) Spadina at something like 7,000 and Yonge at 10,500 or something similar.

 

[salsa]

almost every single lrt supporter I talk to is amazed when i tell them this will get the same ridership as the DRL. They just don't believe me. (mind you the DRL ridership study was done before the subway change so its numbers are probably a bit higher than scarborough's, though only because of scarborough)

I've heard this before, however the DRL serves a much more important function that affects the entire city. And yet Scarb will get built first.

 

[ehlow]

That will push the BD to capacity.

When they approved the BD extension Andy Byford made it clear it makes ATC on Bloor and the DRL even more important. Hopefully the DRL gets started soon...

 

[salsa]

Will ATC still be needed on Bloor after the DRL?

 

[mrxbombastic]

In my opinion having two east-west RT routes Sheppard Subway&LRT and Bloor Danforth + SRT/ScarSub reaching deep into scarborough might break up the flow of riders onto the BD line. riders coming from the north would hop on The Sheppard RT route while riders in the southern half would hop on the BD route. by dividing up the westbound trip over two lines we may be able to reduce demand pressures on the BD line and avoid ATC for a little while longer.

That said, ATC will likely be implemented on the line on the BD cars are replaced with ATC compatible TRs.

 

[rbt]

DRL peak was 10,000. 12,000 with the second phase. Bloor doesn't reach 24,000 yet (though it probably will after scarborough), I can't see the DRL reaching that number. 9,500 vs 10,000, (or more likely 12,000 as the transit taxes will have both phases built at once) Spadina at something like 7,000 and Yonge at 10,500 or something similar.

Bloor will be at capacity soon with the equipment on hand.

If DRL to Eglinton won't pass 12k then it should be built on the cheap too. I'm not sure if that's LRT because there are not many options for mixed traffic but shorter trains would certainly be warranted. Scarborough doesn't need traffic safe LRT either but there are benefits to using the vehicles from the larger fleet.

I dug through DRTes and your right. First phase is 9,400 to 13,500 passengers in peak point peak direction in 2031 depending on the options used. That study doesn't include much of anything from Metrolinx's wishlist.

DRL should be right-sized for it's ridership. Mixed traffic isn't really an option, so street-safe LRT would be silly but a mini-metro or short trains may be appropriate. If DRL gets full in 40 years then build DRL #2; more coverage and options during maintenance/problems.

One challenge for the DRL is it's going to get a flood of transfers every 2 minutes. Running short trains every 60 seconds may not work very well with alternating packed and empty trains. I'd want to see some passenger flow analysis.


Frankly, I think long-distance TTC subway ridership will be gutted if GO actually figures out fare integration and starts building TTC bus terminals at their stations. Very few in Paris take Metro when they can use RER instead. Very few in New York take a local train when they can take an express; even during rush-hour an express will leave passengers behind and the local will have empty seats. GO with frequent service and full fare integration would be the same.

 

[innsertnamehere]

I've heard this before, however the DRL serves a much more important function that affects the entire city. And yet Scarb will get built first.

and I normally agree, but the SRT kinda needs replacing. Why not both?


The TTC has B-D ATC on their capital budget for 2023. The signals need replacing at that point anyway, and if the transit taxes pass the TTC will have a pretty little annual capital budget to work with for more "general" stuff like that.

 

[Palma]

Well I wish we had gone ahead with the current BD extension plan in the first place instead of wasting so much time and money on one plan, then switching plans. We could've made years of progress by now. It's the plan-switching that bothers me.

I personally think it will have reasonable to good ridership, certainly way more than Sheppard. Also not having to bus the SRT riders for 2-3 years is a big benefit. I think this could be a core line for Scarborough with buses feeding into it.

Although I agree with the subway extension, I disagree with the reasons commonly used to justify it. This relates to the name. The whole reason it's called "Scarborough subway" is so that various politicians can say they "built" a subway in Scarborough.

These politicains will be long gone beofre or if that subway gets built. Who is really going to give them credit?

 

[Palma]

I've heard this before, however the DRL serves a much more important function that affects the entire city. And yet Scarb will get built first.

Well who are you that we need to believe this lie?/ No way it will have same ridwership. Lets get real here

 

[Palma]

I've heard this before, however the DRL serves a much more important function that affects the entire city. And yet Scarb will get built first.

Plus how many times have these estimate ridership levels been wrong? Just like those employment levels that North York was to have to justify the sheppard subway.