Humber Bay has three things: a) existing density and a ridership base that already justifies LRT b) additional growth coming imminently (when the Christies' site dispute is resolved) and c) has waited a very long time. Bayfront has only one of these - (b). Seems to me that on a fact based comparison, the score is 3-1.
By late 2018, central Etobicoke will be automobile hell, as the Six Points construction will be mid project with the new roads not in place yet. South Etobicoke is already transit hell. There are a huge number of votes to be won by stoking the fires of discontent in Etobicoke. One doesn't have to play off Etobicoke against the rest of the City. One can continue to woo the east end based on the traditional Ford line, while also arguing that more recently Etobicoke has also gone to hell in a handbasket under Tory. The objective reality doesn't matter, the mud will stick.
I can't imagine Ford supporting LRT to Humber Bay. He will likely just blame the Province for not moving on the Park Lawn GO front. That alone might buy him the Humber Bay vote if nothing else is done.
I don't like the Ford politic, but neither do I want to see him scoop up new votes in the west end. So based on both objective merit and political impact, I would say get on with some solution to Humber Bay. Personally I don't feel it has to be a new LRT line, but at the least it ought to be an extension of the "experimental" no- autos transit-priority zone on King all the way from Spadina to Roncy, with autos excluded and transit priority applied on the King to Queensway left turn, and a new route running Park Lawn loop to downtown. Maybe an extended 514? Ford would definitely oppose all that, and that opposition would likely turn Humber Bay voters back to Tory.
We've probably digressed into something that belongs in another thread, but it's an honest digression. Wouldn't be UT if that didn't happen now and then.
Paul
