Mayor John Tory's Toronto

[Northern Light]

so overfunded that they don't have enough money even to enforce speed limits lol

These issues really aren't related, at all.

I'm disappointed in you for equating them.

A fair debate can be held as to an appropriate level of police funding.

However, the choice to provide minimal support to traffic services was just that, a choice.

From the Police Reformation thread:

Lets also note that police had money to buy Stingrays (cellphone intercepting technology)

They also support a Mounted Unit that has very little value from a tactical or investigative point of view, that costs about ~6M each year to operate.

They are one of only 7 forces in Canada to bother, and none has a unit as large as Toronto.

 

[TrickyRicky]

To be honest I don’t even know what the defund the police movement is about. I’ve been suggesting police reform including looking at spending and cultural problems since I joined this forum.

On the other hand policing is an essential service and a difficult job that earns policemen and women my respect and honestly my empathy. I do not support a cultural war against police or any movement that would naively believe that policing is redundant and society could better use it’s resources elsewhere.

Again, does policing have a culture problem. Sure. I rode in the back of a police cruiser once when I was 12 while police made derogatory remarks about my family’s racial background. Long time ago but these problems persist and need to change.

 

[urbannorth]

To be honest I don’t even know what the defund the police movement is about. I’ve been suggesting police reform including looking at spending and cultural problems since I joined this forum.

On the other hand policing is an essential service and a difficult job that earns policemen and women my respect and honestly my empathy. I do not support a cultural war against police or any movement that would naively believe that policing is redundant and society could better use it’s resources elsewhere.

Again, does policing have a culture problem. Sure. I rode in the back of a police cruiser once when I was 12 while police made derogatory remarks about my family’s racial background. Long time ago but these problems persist and need to change.

These things are all tied together. The calls for Police Reformation started in ~2014 with the elimination of carding. It was overlapped with Black Lives Matter. Since then, stats show that the Reformation and advocacy of BLM has led to a significant increase in shootings, homicides, and violent crime a decade of decline - or looked at from a wider angle, 40 years of decline.
To me, Police Reformation is a code word for allowing criminals to get away and create more havoc in the city.

 

[Northern Light]

These things are all tied together. The calls for Police Reformation started in ~2014 with the elimination of carding. It was overlapped with Black Lives Matter. Since then, stats show that the Reformation and advocacy of BLM has led to a significant increase in shootings, homicides, and violent crime a decade of decline - or looked at from a wider angle, 40 years of decline.
To me, Police Reformation is a code word for allowing criminals to get away and create more havoc in the city.

This is not a well evidenced statement.

The link you provided shows higher absolute homicide totals in 2005 and 2007 that any year in the last decade, excepting the year of the Van Attack, which was anomalous and surely not the result of BLM or Carding, the suspect being a white, incel.

Further, during the period in question, the City's population increased by 20% from 2.5M to 3M.

That means stats require per capita weighting.

If we remove the highest and lowest numbers from the 5-year period centred on 2007, and average the balance, we get 73 homicides per year.

If we do the same, for the 5 year period centred on 2017 we get 72

Lets apply those 2 on a per 100,000 basis to compare.

2007: 2.92 homicides per 100,000
2017: 2.43 homicides per 100,000

This suggests declining crime.

Yes, if you cherry pick the lowest 5 years you get a lower number; but we're still down decade over decade

Further, in this year's year-to-date totals, we see a number well below that of 2016 or 2018

The assertion you've made is illogical and without fundamental support, even in the niche of homicides.

 

[zang]

They also support a Mounted Unit that has very little value from a tactical or investigative point of view, that costs about ~6M each year to operate.

They are one of only 7 forces in Canada to bother, and none has a unit as large as Toronto.

Hell, even the RCMP gave up on mounted patrols.

 

[Rufus8]

This is not a well evidenced statement.

The link you provided shows higher absolute homicide totals in 2005 and 2007 that any year in the last decade, excepting the year of the Van Attack, which was anomalous and surely not the result of BLM or Carding, the suspect being a white, incel.

Further, during the period in question, the City's population increased by 20% from 2.5M to 3M.

That means stats require per capita weighting.

If we remove the highest and lowest numbers from the 5-year period centred on 2007, and average the balance, we get 73 homicides per year.

If we do the same, for the 5 year period centred on 2017 we get 72

Lets apply those 2 on a per 100,000 basis to compare.

2007: 2.92 homicides per 100,000
2017: 2.43 homicides per 100,000

This suggests declining crime.

Yes, if you cherry pick the lowest 5 years you get a lower number; but we're still down decade over decade

Further, in this year's year-to-date totals, we see a number well below that of 2016 or 2018

The assertion you've made is illogical and without fundamental support, even in the niche of homicides.

You are not taking into account how violence related to servicing the city's illegal practises has migrated to those allegedley safer suburbs, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Whitby. The fact is on any weekend you used to be able to rent an airbnb, get any drug in any club downtown then trek home to your little bubble. That doesn't happen any more. It's all over the GTA now. The thing I object to is that the police ensure a law abiding society, it's not up to the cops if people raise their children right or choose to abide by the law, that's up to the citizenry.

 

[Jasmine18]

Yeah the funny thing is BLM says get rid of police to protect blacks


Then say nothing about how unsafe those neighborhoods are to the black community and even more without any semblance of law and order.


I agree in USA these arguement may have some basis but not in canada.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

You are not taking into account how violence related to servicing the city's illegal practises has migrated to those allegedley safer suburbs, Brampton, Mississauga, Oakville, Whitby. The fact is on any weekend you used to be able to rent an airbnb, get any drug in any club downtown then trek home to your little bubble. That doesn't happen any more. It's all over the GTA now. The thing I object to is that the police ensure a law abiding society, it's not up to the cops if people raise their children right or choose to abide by the law, that's up to the citizenry.

Not really, if you go by data for the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (which includes the suburbs):

Geography	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Homicide rates per 100,000 population
Toronto, Ontario 5 (map)	1.31	1.72	1.59	1.79	1.85	1.84	1.98	1.85	2.08	1.88	1.62	1.43	1.50	1.38	1.36	1.38	1.37	1.58	1.51	2.26

Via Statscan:

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3510007101&pickMembers%5B0%5D=2.2&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=1999&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2018&referencePeriods=19990101%2C20180101

It's pretty clear these rates ebb and flow.

AoD

 

[urbannorth]

This is not a well evidenced statement.

The link you provided shows higher absolute homicide totals in 2005 and 2007 that any year in the last decade, excepting the year of the Van Attack, which was anomalous and surely not the result of BLM or Carding, the suspect being a white, incel.

Further, during the period in question, the City's population increased by 20% from 2.5M to 3M.

That means stats require per capita weighting.

If we remove the highest and lowest numbers from the 5-year period centred on 2007, and average the balance, we get 73 homicides per year.

If we do the same, for the 5 year period centred on 2017 we get 72

Lets apply those 2 on a per 100,000 basis to compare.

2007: 2.92 homicides per 100,000
2017: 2.43 homicides per 100,000

This suggests declining crime.

Yes, if you cherry pick the lowest 5 years you get a lower number; but we're still down decade over decade

Further, in this year's year-to-date totals, we see a number well below that of 2016 or 2018

The assertion you've made is illogical and without fundamental support, even in the niche of homicides.

If you can subtract off the Van Attack, does it not make sense that the biggest homicide incident from 2007 should be removed as well?
Doing that, 2018 was the worst hommicide year in almost 3 decades.
Yes, the rate fluctuates to some degree - but it's impossible to look at data and not say things had been getting better for decades but reverse in the past 5. I couldn't find Toronto data old enough (that link only goes back 15 years), so i looked at Canada data. Downward trend started roughly in 1973, with a few upward blips in 1980's and 1990's recessions and 2005-2007.

 

[Northern Light]

If you can subtract off the Van Attack, does it not make sense that the biggest homicide incident from 2007 should be removed as well?
Doing that, 2018 was the worst hommicide year in almost 3 decades.
Yes, the rate fluctuates to some degree - but it's impossible to look at data and not say things had been getting better for decades but reverse in the past 5. I couldn't find Toronto data old enough (that link only goes back 15 years), so i looked at Canada data. Downward trend started roughly in 1973, with a few upward blips in 1980's and 1990's recessions and 2005-2007.
View attachment 259382

Uhh, trying to be patient here.

Did you read my post, properly?

I took 2, 5-year samples, in each, I dropped the high and the low, and then averaged the remaining 3.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Uhh, trying to be patient here.

Did you read my post, properly?

I took 2, 5-year samples, in each, I dropped the high and the low, and then averaged the remaining 3.

I am sure the mini-peak from 2000-2007 in the GTA (which predated the economic upheaval of 08, in case anyone want to drag it in) was because of the lack of carding and BLM making noises

In fact if you look at the same Statscan data for the Toronto CMA, which ran all the way back to 81:

Toronto, Ontario 5 (map)
1981 2.37
1982 2
1983 1.94
1984 2.32
1985 2.24
1986 1.28
1987 2.05
1988 1.79
1989 1.86
1990 1.8
1991 2.55
1992 2.19
1993 1.69
1994 2
1995 1.7
1996 1.82
1997 1.89
1998 1.67
1999 1.31
2000 1.72
2001 1.59
2002 1.79
2003 1.85
2004 1.84
2005 1.98
2006 1.85
2007 2.08
2008 1.88
2009 1.62
2010 1.43
2011 1.5
2012 1.38
2013 1.36
2014 1.38
2015 1.37
2016 1.58
2017 1.51
2018 2.26

Number and rate of homicide victims, by Census Metropolitan Areas

Number and rate (per 100,000 population) of homicide victims, Canada and Census Metropolitan Areas, 1981 to 2019.

www150.statcan.gc.ca

The values had been ping-ponging between 1-2.5 homicides/100,000 for more than 3 decades.

AoD

 

[kali]

On the other hand policing is an essential service and a difficult job that earns policemen and women my respect and honestly my empathy. I do not support a cultural war against police or any movement that would naively believe that policing is redundant and society could better use it’s resources elsewhere.

This 100%.

However, the choice to provide minimal support to traffic services was just that, a choice.

Not seeing that in Matt's tweet?

 

[urbannorth]

Plotting above data. I guess I was wrong - there isn't a bumpy downward trend with uptick in the past few years (too bad Stats Can doesn't have 2019 data yet).

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Real downward trends are obvious to spot - and doesn't require caveats about bumpiness.

(Source - Statscan)

In any case, this is besides the point - the thesis of the end of carding and BLM causing a spike in murders is unsubstantiated - it is pretty clear based on historical GTA homicides rates that carding - which had been around for ages - didn't cause reduction in homicides. For all the resource input, policing alone has been fundamentally ineffective at substantiating a dramatic and sustained reduction in homicide rates here in the GTA over the past 30 years. It is a necessary service, of course - but one will have to be more inventive than that.

AoD

 

[Rufus8]

for all those talking about the police, a horse named for a slain officer has passed away. Russell served the mounted division since 2016. I always loved seeing the horses on the streets, such beautiful animals and a historic sight for us so-called civlised and sophisticated urbanites. Rest In Peace Russell and thank you for your service.