Harper Proroguing Parliament again

[kEiThZ]

Somehow, I don't think this will hurt that much. Polls are polls. In a few months, is anybody really going to care about this prorogation? Mind you, Harper may have just cost himself a majority. But somehow, I just don't think people will care enough to make it a huge issue in the next election.

 

[Tewder]

Nobody really cares if a few Afghan prisoners get tortured or if parliament sits for a few weeks while the nation enjoys the Olympics. Harper's an idiot but still manages to come up smelling of roses when he falls in the shit cart. A slap on the wrist is what will likely ensue for any transgressions. Sorry Jade Lee, you'll probably just have to seethe at the keyboard a little longer. None but the most partisan have any real confidence in Iggy or the Liberal crew, and most Canadians are strolling through the recession just fine, which at the end of the day is what really counts to the average voting person.

 

[afransen]

Somehow, I don't think this will hurt that much. Polls are polls. In a few months, is anybody really going to care about this prorogation? Mind you, Harper may have just cost himself a majority. But somehow, I just don't think people will care enough to make it a huge issue in the next election.

Keep in mind that Harper prorogued (more or less solely) to shut down the line of investigation into Afghan prisoner transfer. He is currently under subpoena to provide un-redacted documents to the House. He or his minister will be found in contempt of Parliament in March if he does not provide these documents. The only way out is an election, so that is what I am expecting. Mark my words.

 

[afransen]

Also, at this point it isn't even necessarily a matter of the torture itself. It's that our government lied to us, baldly, and is abusing its power to redact documents that are released in Access to Information requests for partisan purposes under the guise of national security. Those are scandalous in themselves.

 

[MetroMan]

Well, with the Liberals now tied with the Conservatives, I can see one of the following scenarios playing out:

1 - Hatred for Harper grows because of his abuse of power, giving the Liberals an undisputed lead. Parliament resumes in March, the government is defeated and we have an election which the Liberals handedly win. Probably not enough for a majority government, but enough for an NDP propped minority with the Oranges making enough gains to want the government to stay afloat for as long as possible.

2 - The prorogation of Parliament issue fizzes out by March, but enough support for the Liberals remain that they defeat the government and an election is called. PC's narrowly come on top but the Liberals+NDP have enough of an edge over the Conservatives to ask the Governor General to form a coalition government. Harper attempts to form a government, the opposition votes him down and the Liberal+NDP coalition takes power.

Either way, Harper's toast before next Spring.

 

[kEiThZ]

^ Let's see how far the Liberals get if they are honest enough to suggest that they'll form a coalition with the NDP.

 

[afransen]

I don't think the Liberals will topple the government unless the CPC really fall apart.

 

[adma]

And who knows if the Tories have some disarming post-prorogue electoral-bait ace up their sleeve (eg. Senate reform)

 

[kEiThZ]

I don't think the Liberals will topple the government unless the CPC really fall apart.

Exactly. If Iggy was gaining traction, maybe. But he's not. It should say something about the Liberals that even with all of Harper's shenanigans, they can't seem to cash in. What the heck is going on over there?

 

[Tewder]

People don't approve of these types of Harper shenanigans but this doesn't necessarily mean they don't approve of the government in general. We can't overlook the bigger picture that it is the economy that has been weighing most heavily on the minds of Canadians, and the fact that the country has fared fairly well during this global recession is what is protecting the Conservatives. In more prosperous and stable times I could see them being punished for recent transgressions but I don't think anybody is willing to rock a fairly stable boat for ethics. Besides, compromises with the devil are sort of part of the Canadian tradition.

 

[afransen]

And who knows if the Tories have some disarming post-prorogue electoral-bait ace up their sleeve (eg. Senate reform)

Senate reform is a big fat loser of an issue. Many provinces are vocal opponents, and no real, binding senate reform is possible without constitutional amendment. Provincial governments are already threatening court challenges, and they would likely be successful.

As someone else noted, Senate reform is to conservatives here what Roe v. Wade is in the US. Something to keep the base riled up, and too useful as a tool to actually resolve is a satisfactory way.

 

[afransen]

People don't approve of these types of Harper shenanigans but this doesn't necessarily mean they don't approve of the government in general. We can't overlook the bigger picture that it is the economy that has been weighing most heavily on the minds of Canadians, and the fact that the country has fared fairly well during this global recession is what is protecting the Conservatives. In more prosperous and stable times I could see them being punished for recent transgressions but I don't think anybody is willing to rock a fairly stable boat for ethics. Besides, compromises with the devil are sort of part of the Canadian tradition.

I think the whole Afghan issue and the government's response to it has a lot of potential to harm the government. Clearly, they agree with me, since they thought it wise to shut down Parliament to avoid it. And since that only delays the problem, I sense that they will trigger an election so that any investigation into the matter will take place safely after a vote.

 

[kEiThZ]

As a military member, the Afghan detainee issue pisses me off and I would rather not see an election fought on it. The military did nothing wrong. And did everything humanly possible to prevent these detainees from being mishandled. The only thing possible above and beyond was building a Canadian facility to house the detainees. And for all the political hay-making, I have yet to hear any of the opposition parties suggest what they would have done differently. Heck, the rules of engagement and policies regarding detainee handling were the same ones in place when the Liberals were in office. That's why I find it bothersome that the Liberals are now turning around and accusing the Conservatives of making Canada (and really they mean the CF) complicit with torture.

Also, bothersome to me is that there has been no discussion on the wider implications of this debate. The NDP. of course, will do or say anything to get the troops out of Afghanistan. They don't give a rat's ass about who gets killed or what happens there after as long as no Canadians are getting killed or dragged in front of the ICC (and they'd probably hand over Canadians who did get charge too). The Taliban could sweep back in and execute thousands of Wind and the NDP would still be glad the troops were home. But I would have expected the Liberals, who could easily form the next government, to have been more level headed.

And then there's the governing party who refuses to come clean on all the facts, tries to hang it all on the military and its senior leadership (who were following policies laid down by this and the previous government). I expected better from the Conservatives. I am disappointed.

I could hope that the prorogation would help, but I know the House is going to come back with even more partisan divisions.

 

[afransen]

Keith, I think your closeness to the issue is clouding your judgement. The Liberals have been abundantly clear that the CF has behaved honourably and in good faith with respect to prisoner transfer, and the fault lies with the policy. They acknoweldge that previous Liberal governments had a role to play, which is why they asked for an inquiry over the period 2002 - 2007. The present government failed to address concerns about prisoner torture in a timely manner, and then covered it up. There is no fault on the part of the CF, as they were following policy set by Ottawa, and rigorously documenting any issues surrounding torture that did arise, and reporting it back to Ottawa. No one is attacking the troops, but the Conservatives sure are hiding behind them, which is reprehensible.

 

[nfitz]

Sadly, there are some who would rather see Canada fail to win medals in Vancouver just to score cheap political shots. The thought of Harper being Prime Minister at the Olympics is hard for them to accept. They would rather see Canada's Olympic team falter and point the finger at Harper and say "it's your fault". Pathetic.

Few are more cynical about the Harper government than I. But I fail to see the relationship between a lack of gold medals, and our political leaders. Nor do I see any potential fall-out. I don't recall any recriminations against Trudeau after we failed to win a gold medal in 1976, or any mention of our Olympic performance in the 1979 election. Or against Mulroney in 1988, even in the election held later that year; it certainly didn't cross my mind when I voted against him!

I really don't think that the Olympics will have much impact on the current federal political situation. Tory MPs and cabinet will likely be avoiding Vancouver as much as possible, as they know that pictures of them at the Olympics while the rest of us are working would impact their polling. Obviously the PM has to make an appearance or two ... and presumably the Minister responsible for sport, whoever that is these days, should be there ... but I expect they will be trying to keep a very low profile!