News   Jul 15, 2024
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GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

This morning I had a chance to see off peak ridership at Unionville station for the 9:49 train. There were 50 or so people on the platform. Quite impressive. There is definitely solid demand for off peak GO service. Now, if only we could get midrise office and residential density within walking distance of all GO stations, that would be greaaat. Genuine TOD can't come soon enough.
On the kitchener line there was a decent amount of people on the 9am, 10 am, 11 am and 12 PM trips. The 1 pm, 2pm, 3pm and 4 pm trips are slightly underused but still a good amount of people using them, on Blue Jay's games or other concerts/ events the 4 PM train has alot of people using it
 
^ Some details here on how it went, as well as the some costs included on the various options. Metrolinx is saying that the original $550 million for the Option 1 route (which was in the EA and was being refined with an addendum) are higher than anticipated.

https://www.durhamregion.com/news-s...or-bowmanville-go-train-extension-via-oshawa/

I give credit for a clear, factual, and candid explanation for why the plan was revisited. Can't blame ML's top brass for asking for a review if a project that was originally estimated at $550M grew to twice that. They would have been reckless to sidestep that issue.

If only Verster could have offered such a direct, succinct explanation at the town hall, it might have coloured the last couple weeks' discussion much differently. We need leadership (at the ML level as well as the provincial level) that aren't in love with spin as the answer to everything.

- Paul

PS - having said that, I still believe that choosing a more remote path that abandons planning for development of Central Oshawa would be a mistake, even at $1B instead of 550M.
 
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It will take time before the public fully understands the benefit and utilizes two way all day service. How well has local transit been integrated into GO stations?
 
I give credit for a clear, factual, and candid explanation for why the plan was revisited. Can't blame ML's top brass for asking for a review if a project that was originally estimated at $550M grew to twice that. They would have been reckless to sidestep that issue.

If only Verster could have offered such a direct, succinct explanation at the town hall, it might have coloured the last couple weeks' discussion much differently. We need leadership (at the ML level as well as the provincial level) that aren't in love with spin as the answer to everything.

- Paul

PS - having said that, I still believe that choosing a more remote path that abandons planning for development of Central Oshawa would be a mistake, even at $1B instead of 550M.

I mean, why is spending $1B that bad of idea when the context is considered. In addition to the intensification opportunities with the CP route, $1B is what the Georgetown South Project got from my memory (and yes, I recall the debate here about the value of that investment given the Brampton bottleneck with CN). It's far, far below the cost of what Ford wants to do on Eglinton West and Sheppard. What's wrong with starting with four trains in/out and increasing it to all-day service? I get that Verster said only all-day from day one has a positive cost-benefit ratio, but did they even look at ratios like that when they did other extensions, like the one to Oshawa in 1995, or more recently to Barrie and Kitchener? What I also don't get is if CP is outright saying "no" to all-day, two-way service or just wants more money? The 2011 EA shows two phases and I had assumed the second phase would enable all-day, two-way service.
 
CP is a dick. No two ways about it. They overcharged Metrolinx up to 800% in the past. Awful.

CP is not above predatory manouevers, but don't let that cloud the issue. The original EA happened under a different regime at CP .... one that was turfed by CP shareholders because of underperformance and poor use of capital. Yes, the pendulum was then thrown waaaay over by Ackman and Harrison (and a whole lot of asset base was stripped out and misappropriated to investors), but a more moderate and respectably businesslike regime would still likely have revisited the original arrangement and insisted that CP get a better deal.

The original plan was to move CP out of the way of GO, but all that CP appeared to expect was to be made whole for the asset that existed at that date. The existing line is single track with (old-fashioned) passing sidings at Oshawa and Darlington, and a small amount of yard space at Oshawa. If that's all CP wanted, they were not looking far enough into the future or considering what investment they might face for their purposes in the future.

At the town hall, Verster alluded to a 50-75 years view of the business. If CP is shifted to the north, with GO taking their present line, the only option for CP to expand is to do a very expensive civil expansion. Whereas, if CP stays where they are and preserves the space to the north, and retains unused civil works (there are bridges built with two-track dimensions but currently only one track laid) for their eventual expansion, the long term cost to CP of any expansion is far less. The question is, how much of its future capacity can GO reasonably expect CP to provide, with or without compensation, given that CP's costs in the long term are considerably increased.

There is no "freebie" for CP in this.....they do not need more track in the short term. What they need is for GO to not constrain their future. That's why the new proposal says GO should build more of its own infrastructure on a different alignment.

One other thought. Some of us still cling to the hope that CP/CN can move to coproduction on this corridor, in hopes of freeing up an existing corridor for VIA in preference to the Peterborough HFR route. A shared CP/CN corridor would need to be at least double track and likely triple track within 50 years. Constraining CP at this point to get GO in place would put another roadblock in all that.

So some of us (perhaps with ulterior motives) will say, don't shortchange CP in this, even if they get greedy at times.

- Paul
 
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The debate on CP's motives or not, or most any facet of what's now coming out of Metrolinx...it must be remembered that this *must have been known* for at least a year, at the minimum, and through all that time, Metrolinx played everyone along on a fantasy.

Read back to see the statements coming out of Metrolinx. Even the local Cons got played along with it, albeit some, when they found out the facts before public release of them, started to play the fantasy game too.

Every Mayor and Councillor has been lied to, and operating under a false reassurance, went ahead and zoned and planned at a considerable cost.

If that's "efficiency" then no wonder so much shit comes out of Ford's mouth. He has everything exactly backwards...and some still defend him. Which then leads one to wonder: 'Well if the lying was so blatant for the last few years, why should anything they're saying now be believed?'
 
The debate on CP's motives or not, or most any facet of what's now coming out of Metrolinx...it must be remembered that this *must have been known* for at least a year, at the minimum, and through all that time, Metrolinx played everyone along on a fantasy.

I don’t disagree on an emotional level, but on a rational level I would pedantically point out that we need to put the blame exactly where it belongs..... back with Wynne and DD. All of this must have been known back when Wynne made the commitment to Bowmanville - which was what - 2017? I am confident that ML must have briefed her on the folly of the business case, and her decision was, promise it anyways. So ML meekly acquiesced. Which demonstrates that ML is not the nonpolitical objective fact based planning body that we deserve.

To defend Yurek (a very odd thing to do!) - if I were an incoming minister, I would ask, a billion dollars for 4-5 peak service trains? I could build an entire LRT for that! And when I hear that these are mostly not new riders, but simply riders who already drive or bus to Oshawa.....that’s a very poor rationale for spending the Billion.

Verster’s instincts were sound.....re-run the numbers as an all day service, and see where that gets you. And as it turns out, that’s a better use of a $1B investment.

To me, this turns on the value of enabling Oshawa as a growing, non-GM-centric city center that anchors the east end of the GTA. Perhaps the tradeoff is to do the Oshawa Center segment now, and extend to Clarington in a few years. It’s a partial waste of the new station, but VIA can live with a shuttle bus, or moving their stop to Pickering or Whitby. I do support investing in Oshawa.

The question is, how to do that without sucking up all available capital that is needed by other GO routes. Unfortunately, we don’t know what ML’s overall envelope is. Every time I hear Ford promise more tax cuts, I shudder. I’m not sure if even Oshawa Center is affordable.

- Paul
 
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I don’t disagree on an emotional level, but on a rational level I would pedantically point out that we need to put the blame exactly where it lies.... back with Wynne and DD.
That regime is gone. We're discussing the here and now. THIS regime continually lied and obfuscated. And what's to say that ML aren't continuing to lie? They give every indication of doing so.

And it's far from just LSE.

Davenport Diamond and Ontario Line immediately come to mind, let alone Kitchener, Niagara, Hamilton, etc, etc.
 
The question is, how to do that without sucking up all available capital that is needed by other GO routes. Unfortunately, we don’t know what ML’s overall envelope is. Every time I hear Ford promise more tax cuts, I shudder. I’m not sure if even Oshawa Center is affordable.

Waterloo Region is building its transportation hub on it's own dime to link ION, GRT, GO, and VIA. If Oshawa and Clarington want this so badly, maybe they could offer similar so that the Metrolinx spend goes entirely to just bridges and track? That may be a way for them to get it moving in the direction they want, and hopefully they could partner with developers to build mixed use residential/retail/transit instead of the traditional GO model of asphalt platforms with a few bus shelters on them and a giant parking lot (or the modern garage-mahal alternative with zero non-transit value). Given the way they've touted Woodbine, I'm sure the Ford regime would easily be down for that.

Caveat: Waterloo's developer partnership fizzled, per The Record: Waterloo Region looks for new developer for Kitchener transit hub after dumping KVTH. Woodbine = good, Waterloo = bad, Durham = ???
 
Waterloo Region is building its transportation hub on it's own dime to link ION, GRT, GO, and VIA. If Oshawa and Clarington want this so badly, maybe they could offer similar so that the Metrolinx spend goes entirely to just bridges and track? That may be a way for them to get it moving in the direction they want, and hopefully they could partner with developers to build mixed use residential/retail/transit instead of the traditional GO model of asphalt platforms with a few bus shelters on them and a giant parking lot (or the modern garage-mahal alternative with zero non-transit value). Given the way they've touted Woodbine, I'm sure the Ford regime would easily be down for that.

Caveat: Waterloo's developer partnership fizzled, per The Record: Waterloo Region looks for new developer for Kitchener transit hub after dumping KVTH. Woodbine = good, Waterloo = bad, Durham = ???

Granted, 43m for the hub is coming from the province (*pending likely clawbacks due to governmental stupidity)
 

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