GO Transit: Service thread (including extensions)

[Allandale25]

I know the government spin part can be frustrating and make the public loose confidence in transit expansion, create cynicism, etc, but I think it's also helpful to note that when/if something is announced, at least it should show that CN Rail is willing to negotiate and those negotiations must be going well or at least progressing. If not, there wouldn't be any new "slots" (is that what they are called?) for more GO trains to use the tracks.

It'll be interesting to see how much more they can squeeze out of CN to implement the "Munro chart" above (the one that goes to fiscal 2019-2020) before triggering something like building the Missing Link, a rail-over-rail grade separation at Mount Pleasant, a third track on the south side of the existing tracks at the Brampton GO station, or all of the above, is required. In the GO RER Business Case Analysis (BCA) they talked about five scenarios:

• Scenario 1 (Do Minimum)
• Scenario 2 (Two-Way All-Day)
• Scenario 3 (10-Year Plan)
• Scenario 4 (Full Build) - I think this is the one where GO would get exclusive use of the tracks between Georgetown and Bramalea
• Scenario 5 (Optimized)

From the GO RER Business Case Analysis Appendix (pg 268) on the Kitchener Corridor:

*qualifications:

Of course it is the two new trains/extensions to Kitchener......they will hold a presser in the next two weeks (re)announcing the 100% increase in train service to Kitchener starting in September and showing the work behind them as "important" infrastructure investments necessary to get Ontario moving.

Then sometime around Labour day, they will return there to (re)re-announce it as starting next week we will increase trains to Kitchener by 100% to get Ontario moving.

If we were able to compound all of these 100% announcements everybody in the corridor would have their own train by then.

 

[TOareaFan]

I know the government spin part can be frustrating and make the public loose confidence in transit expansion, create cynicism, etc, but I think it's also helpful to note that when/if something is announced, at least it should show that CN Rail is willing to negotiate and those negotiations must be going well or at least progressing. If not, there wouldn't be any new "slots" (is that what they are called?) for more GO trains to use the tracks.

Not sure this particular announcement (assuming it is the extension of two more existing trains to Kitchener) would indicate anything about negotiations with CN progressing. They would be trains that already take up track time on the CN stretch between Georgetown and Bramalea....just that they would continue westward on the stretch of track that GO owns between Georgetown and Kitchener.

 

[Allandale25]

Not sure this particular announcement (assuming it is the extension of two more existing trains to Kitchener) would indicate anything about negotiations with CN progressing. They would be trains that already take up track time on the CN stretch between Georgetown and Bramalea....just that they would continue westward on the stretch of track that GO owns between Georgetown and Kitchener.

True, we don't know what is going to be announced. But if it's simply an extension of the trains that stop mid-day at Mount Pleasant, then yes, I think it would require more 'give' or 'slots' from CN. Those trains end their journey on the south side of Mount Pleasant and the need to get to the north side to stop at Georgetown and continue. So, my thinking is that if there's an announcement, CN either had the time reserved for GO for a couple of years now, or GO was able to negotiate the crossover. I'm sure someone will correct me if I got the directions/movements/crossings wrong.

Here's the May 26th by reaperexpress that shows the track plan map of what I'm talking about.

 

[crs1026]

If these are extensions of trains that lay over at Georgetown, the north-south crossover is already in the schedule. It's worth noting that the extension of the Guelph Sub main line all the way to Georgetown (from Silver) isn't complete, although construction is well along. CN was likely willing to accommodate the added traffic between Georgetown and Silver rather than insisting the extension be in operation first.

Considering the intent to add the two trains was expressed a couple years ago, CN has likely long agreed to these.

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

I guess we'll have to see if the announcement is the extension of trains that stop at Georgetown, Mount Pleasant, or both. Agree that CN could have agreed to these changes long ago. That type of information is never revealed so we can only speculate.

If these are extensions of trains that lay over at Georgetown, the north-south crossover is already in the schedule. It's worth noting that the extension of the Guelph Sub main line all the way to Georgetown (from Silver) isn't complete, although construction is well along. CN was likely willing to accommodate the added traffic between Georgetown and Silver rather than insisting the extension be in operation first.

Considering the intent to add the two trains was expressed a couple years ago, CN has likely long agreed to these.

- Paul

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

I know the government spin part can be frustrating and make the public loose confidence in transit expansion, create cynicism, etc, but I think it's also helpful to note that when/if something is announced, at least it should show that CN Rail is willing to negotiate and those negotiations must be going well or at least progressing. If not, there wouldn't be any new "slots" (is that what they are called?) for more GO trains to use the tracks.

It'll be interesting to see how much more they can squeeze out of CN to implement the "Munro chart" above (the one that goes to fiscal 2019-2020) before triggering something like building the Missing Link, a rail-over-rail grade separation at Mount Pleasant, a third track on the south side of the existing tracks at the Brampton GO station, or all of the above, is required. In the GO RER Business Case Analysis (BCA) they talked about five scenarios:

• Scenario 1 (Do Minimum)
• Scenario 2 (Two-Way All-Day)
• Scenario 3 (10-Year Plan)
• Scenario 4 (Full Build) - I think this is the one where GO would get exclusive use of the tracks between Georgetown and Bramalea
• Scenario 5 (Optimized)

From the GO RER Business Case Analysis Appendix (pg 268) on the Kitchener Corridor:

*qualifications:

It is annoying, but you have to know they have been saying this since 2007 pretty much. There is no reason why Wynne can't do what she did for lakeshore and get it going. At least for Brampton and Markham, it's not asking too much.

 

[Allandale25]

It is annoying, but you have to know they have been saying this since 2007 pretty much. There is no reason why Wynne can't do what she did for lakeshore and get it going. At least for Brampton and Markham, it's not asking too much.

I disagree. GO owns almost the entire Lakeshore East and Lakeshore West corridors. Even when there were portions still owned by CN Rail, the 30 minute service frequency came in after the addition of a third track or fourth track. What would you have done or being doing differently to convince CN Rail to provide access?

Should governments at all levels raised earlier the issue of the Missing Link and started the EAs to add track to Brampton (or other lines) ? Sure, but ownership is still a challenge and the Georgetown South Project took many years. Brampton, Milton, and Richmond Hill at CN and CP's main freight rail corridors. Negotiations take longer than a day. There are challenges with running small and fast commuter trains in the same corridor with long and slow freight trains. Government can't just wave a wand and solve these things overnight.

In fact, on the Lakeshore Corridor, no rail-over-rail grade separations were required. The premise, I believe, was built what they could, in the places they owned, as quickly as possible. Get the easy stuff out of the way. Also, there was track expansion in Brampton around the time you mentioned (2007). Some locations saw a second or third track be added, and the new south platform at Brampton. It was funded under the GO Transit Rail Improvement Plan (GO TRIP). Construction started around 2004 and I believe finished around 2006-7.

Expanding commuter rail service when you don't have complete ownership is more complicated than just drawing a line on a map and running the trains tomorrow.

 

[crs1026]

Expanding commuter rail service when you don't have complete ownership is more complicated than just drawing a line on a map and running the trains tomorrow.

Of course it's challenging. The thing that's unacceptable is the puffery (from both ML and the politicians) about how great this will be when it's done, when there is no plan that addresses the obvious barriers and risks..... and therefore no real prospect of it getting done.

This from January 2009:
http://www.newswire.ca/news-release...d-rail-link-to-pearson-airport-537011401.html

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have taken 7 years for those involved to discover that CN owned part of the line, and this might present barriers........

- Paul

 

[Allandale25]

I'm not disagreeing that more could have been done. I guess I was more trying to provide the contrasts between the ability to increase service on the Lakeshore lines vs Kitchener, Milton, Richmond Hill to this comment by another user: "There is no reason why Wynne can't do what she did for lakeshore and get it going". It always amazes me at how many members of the public and some municipal politicians say they want more GO service but are not aware of the challenges. Yes, ML and provincial politicians should be realistic and do a better job of explaining the situation.

I hadn't see that 2009 press release. I agree that it contains "puffery", especially as it relates to GO service for Bolton. Hopefully now with a more defined plan for RER, the province can be more specific and realistic when it comes to service improvements.

Of course it's challenging. The thing that's unacceptable is the puffery (from both ML and the politicians) about how great this will be when it's done, when there is no plan that addresses the obvious barriers and risks..... and therefore no real prospect of it getting done.

This from January 2009:
http://www.newswire.ca/news-release...d-rail-link-to-pearson-airport-537011401.html

I'm pretty sure it wouldn't have taken 7 years for those involved to discover that CN owned part of the line, and this might present barriers........

- Paul

 

[drum118]

Same as UPX equipment, but 43 miles long. What does GO Charge for Same distance??

SMART considers $12 fare for ride from Santa Rosa to San Rafael

 

[TOareaFan]

I disagree. GO owns almost the entire Lakeshore East and Lakeshore West corridors. Even when there were portions still owned by CN Rail, the 30 minute service frequency came in after the addition of a third track or fourth track. What would you have done or being doing differently to convince CN Rail to provide access?

1. GO owns all of the corridor out to Bramalea......even for points to the west you would think that running trains every 30 or 60 minutes to Bramalea then express buses from there would be faster than all bus trips to Union.
2. What would I do? Well every negotiating course/seminar I have taken reminds you not to give the other guy too much of what he wants until you get what you want. So GO/Ont has transferred, what, hundreds of millions (is it that much) to CN to buy the parts of the line that they really didn't need anymore without getting an agreement to also find a way to sell the part that they (CN) do need......what incentive does CN have now to do a deal on the donut hole that has been created?

 

[Allandale25]

1. GO owns all of the corridor out to Bramalea......even for points to the west you would think that running trains every 30 or 60 minutes to Bramalea then express buses from there would be faster than all bus trips to Union.

I'd be in favour of that.

2. What would I do? Well every negotiating course/seminar I have taken reminds you not to give the other guy too much of what he wants until you get what you want. So GO/Ont has transferred, what, hundreds of millions (is it that much) to CN to buy the parts of the line that they really didn't need anymore without getting an agreement to also find a way to sell the part that they (CN) do need......what incentive does CN have now to do a deal on the donut hole that has been created?

I guess we'll just have to continue to speculate on the negotiations because so little if anything is ever released. It's always marked as "commercially sensitive". Yes, GO paid hundreds of millions to CN (and CP) for track over the years to the point that they now own 80%. However, from what I can tell, CN really didn't care that much if they owned these lines or not. I assume they didn't care if the status quo continued. Their goal shareholder value, not more passenger trains on their tracks. So I don't see how much leverage GO had in the discussions over CN. I don't see CN and GO as equals in this.

The other challenge is that this forum really doesn't have anyone (as far as I can tell) that can provide CN's perspective to confirm or support what I've written above. I don't mind playing the Devil's Advocate here, or at least trying to understand the considerations freight railways have when it comes to track decisions.

There's really no way for CN to defend itself or justify why it isn't moving faster or allowing GO to do more. We don't know all of the commercial and financial considerations CN contemplates when making decisions or agreeing to sell a line. Yes, Brampton, Milton, and Richmond Hill are now "holes". I assume at some point will get some kind of sense on if the Missing Link will even be studied or CN will allow more trips or EAs to add tracks (without selling the 'hole' portion in Brampton).

 

[Markster]

Same as UPX equipment, but 43 miles long. What does GO Charge for Same distance??

SMART considers $12 fare for ride from Santa Rosa to San Rafael

Danforth GO to Hamilton GO is about that long, and costs $13.90 cash, or $12.35 on Presto.

 

[innsertnamehere]

So actually cheaper once you consider that the SMART price is in USD.

 

[TOareaFan]

I guess we'll just have to continue to speculate on the negotiations because so little if anything is ever released. It's always marked as "commercially sensitive". Yes, GO paid hundreds of millions to CN (and CP) for track over the years to the point that they now own 80%. However, from what I can tell, CN really didn't care that much if they owned these lines or not. I assume they didn't care if the status quo continued. Their goal shareholder value, not more passenger trains on their tracks. So I don't see how much leverage GO had in the discussions over CN. I don't see CN and GO as equals in this.

My point is......if you break the corridor down (as has happened) into 3 sections, there were 2 (West of Georgetown and East of Bramalea) that CN had little/no use for anymore and one section (between Georgetown and Bramalea) that they view as key to their operations still. From their perspective, they enhanced shareholder value by getting a decent amount of cash in the door for the two sections that were "surplus" to their needs...without giving up anything on the part they need....from a GO perspective, by giving them the cash for those two sections without including/reaching an agreement on the middle bit...you took away a large (all?) part of the reason for them to sit at the table in the first place.....and you (we really) have paid for two sections of track that, without the 3rd, don't really advance your goal for the corridor all that much.