Please overvalue the RTP. We've played this game before. The Big Move was the original RTP, and it marked the Milton Line as having 2WAD service in 15 years (which considering it was published in 2008, would make that this year).
Not totally dumping on it, we have seen some of this achieved.
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I think this is a matter of interpretation... every timeline in almost every RTP has been innacurate, with projects being cancelled, moved around, changed, pushed off, etc. BUT, the RTP is as clear a document for what we, and specifically Metrolinx and the province, are working towards.
In your example, Milton being a 15-year commitment each time really just indicates it is recognized as important, but for one reason or another is not/cannot be pursued immediately. In this case, Milton made as much sense on paper as the rest of the GO Network until we determined what 'express rail' entailed; the scope of work necessary made it easier/necessary to disentangle it from the rest of GO Expansion since the Big Move.
Anywho, we cannot expect what RTPs say will come to fruition when it says it will, but dropping Milton from RTPs would indicate its no longer a priority at all. The Big Move was made at a time when we had completed no new transit projects and it was essentially how Metrolinx hoped to spend its money (before realizing how much things actually cost, and how long they would take). There has been a lot of new transit built and under construction since then, and our expectations have been tempered as we accumulate that knowledge. I would place more faith in the 2041 RTP today than The Big Move in 2008 for this reason; despite Metrolinx's shortcomings, we are starting to know what we are actually doing.
I’ll end with this; other jurisdictions have seen great success adopting a regional plan, because the more legitimate that plan is, the less external stakeholders can influence what gets built or prioritized. Sure politics gets involved, but ideally at minimum the RTP is a list of projects for people in power to choose from (as it often is elsewhere). Although it might not seem like it, the RTP has at least slightly taken away the absolute power politics has traditionally had over transit planning priorities by creating a pre-existing framework they need to acknowledge exists before screwing with it.
