crs1026
Superstar
The frustrating part is the seven years that have passed since the original Wynne election promise of 2014.
- Paul
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GO Transit: Construction Projects (Metrolinx, various)
- Thread starter drum118
- Start date
The frustrating part is the seven years that have passed since the original Wynne election promise of 2014.
- Paul
Allandale25
Senior Member
^ I might be misremembering, but wasn't the 2014 campaign promise for a certain level of RER service on lines they owned for 2025-2026? I think a promise may have been made in June 2016 for the "off corridor" portion tied to the announcement that the freight bypass would be studied and built by a certain time.
Update:
When I found this April 2014 article and it didn't mention the "lines GO owns" part, I thought maybe the reporter may have left it out.
www.thestar.com
Then I found the April 2014 media release where it says "all" lines.
news.ontario.ca
The subsequent budget then said:
"examine opportunities" for all corridors: "The Province has asked Metrolinx to begin work immediately to examine opportunities to move GO service towards a regional express rail, providing fast and frequent electrifieds service on all corridors at intervals as frequent as 15 minutes. This would represent a game-changerin how people move about the region, and enhance ridership and efficiency on GO Transit and other projects that connect to the network as well." (emphasis added) (page 48)
Then in September 2014, the update comes that it's "on corridors we own" and it's linked to the timeframe of 10 years.
"On Tuesday, he told the Toronto Star that Metrolinx would deliver on Premier Kathleen Wynne’s promise in April to “phase in electric train service every 15 minutes on all GO lines that we own.”"
www.thestar.com
Maybe there are other articles out there or the OLP 2014 platform between April 2014 and September 2014 that track (no pun intended) the change of language from "all" to "corridors we own" and the 10 year part (2024). I think I recall hearing 2025-2026.
So, given today's release of the PDBC, I assume if they go with the option that includes Silver Junction rail separation, it's Friday, October 30, 2026. I guess the challenge is that we don't know when the clock starts on the 66 months.
Update:
When I found this April 2014 article and it didn't mention the "lines GO owns" part, I thought maybe the reporter may have left it out.
Ontario Liberals vow electrified GO trains that will run every 15 minutes
Within a decade commuters will be travelling on GO trains powered by electricity and they will only have to wait 15 minutes for one to show up.
www.thestar.com
Then I found the April 2014 media release where it says "all" lines.
Ontario Newsroom
The subsequent budget then said:
"examine opportunities" for all corridors: "The Province has asked Metrolinx to begin work immediately to examine opportunities to move GO service towards a regional express rail, providing fast and frequent electrifieds service on all corridors at intervals as frequent as 15 minutes. This would represent a game-changerin how people move about the region, and enhance ridership and efficiency on GO Transit and other projects that connect to the network as well." (emphasis added) (page 48)
Then in September 2014, the update comes that it's "on corridors we own" and it's linked to the timeframe of 10 years.
"On Tuesday, he told the Toronto Star that Metrolinx would deliver on Premier Kathleen Wynne’s promise in April to “phase in electric train service every 15 minutes on all GO lines that we own.”"
GO electrification possible in 10 years, confirms Metrolinx CEO
But Bruce McCuaig says it’s not likely the whole system will get the 15-minute, all-day service the province is promising.
www.thestar.com
Maybe there are other articles out there or the OLP 2014 platform between April 2014 and September 2014 that track (no pun intended) the change of language from "all" to "corridors we own" and the 10 year part (2024). I think I recall hearing 2025-2026.
So, given today's release of the PDBC, I assume if they go with the option that includes Silver Junction rail separation, it's Friday, October 30, 2026. I guess the challenge is that we don't know when the clock starts on the 66 months.
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ShonTron
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Maybe by then work will finally begin on Highway 7 New too.
Northern Light
Superstar
You mean you didn't hear about the delay in that project due to the proposed LRT linking Guelph to K-W?
crs1026
Superstar
As of 2013, the timeline was 15 years
GO trains to run every 30 minutes all day on Lakeshore lines
In the largest single service expansion of its 46-year history, GO transit is increasing train service along the lakeshore — from Oshawa to Aldershot — to every 30 minutes, seven
www.thestar.com
The original announcement by Kathleen Wynne about Kitchener 2WAD was April 2014
Ontario Newsroom
news.ontario.ca
A month later, Liberal Glen Murray put the timeframe as being as quick as 5 years. His quotes in this article are quite explicit about quick action.
The Metrolinx RER Initial BCA of 2015 indicated a timeframe of 10 years. 2024-2025 appears as completion in a number of ML documents from that period.
PS: Wynne repeated the 2024 date in 2016
Province will deliver two-way, all-day GO Train service, Wynne says
You want two-way, all-day GO train service between Kitchener and Toronto?
www.therecord.com
But we know how that turned out ;-)
- Paul
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reaperexpress
Senior Member
On page 58 of the aforementioned Kitchener Business Case document from March 2021, they anticipate a "mid to late 2020s" start of electrified service:
crs1026
Superstar
That caught my eye, and I really wondered if that was completely valid. Certainly some additional equipment might be needed to deploy counter flow service at peak, and to achieve 15 minute headways east of Bramalea, but it may be double counting existing equipment that otherwise heads to layovers.
The purpose of that paragraph appears to be to test financial indices if in fact new equipment had to be procured. I would not read that to say that full service can’t begin until electrification happens somewhere.... and in fact, if the Bramalea portion were among the first lines to be electrified, the equipment currently used for that part of Kitchener service might be redeployable.
It does highlight why electrification needs to be expedited.... so that whatever EMU fleet GO procures arrives soon enough to offset end-of-life for the bilevel fleet. In a perfect world, all of GO’s future equipment purchases would go towards electrification, and would happen at the rate necessary to deploy bilevels without running short of these.
- Paul
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allengeorge
Senior Member
So this is the “commercially more astute” decision that Phil Verster was referring to in his interview with Reece Martin? Instead of having to build a bypass they can add some passing track? Correct me if I’m wrong, but this still doesn’t allow the whole line to be electrified, correct?
innsertnamehere
Superstar
I mean isn’t the GO OnCorr contract supposed to close next year? Construction usually starts more or less immediately following contract close, which means a 2026 or 2027 date for the first bits of electrification wrapping up probably isn’t unrealistic.
I seem to recall Metrolinx planning for the Lakeshore lines to be the first ones to finish construction in the OnCorr contract, which will likely be 2026 or 2027.
I also seem to recall that Metrolinx is planning for the main GO expansion contracts more or less wrapping up by 2028. The 2025 completion date from the liberals was always aggressive and was quietly shifted to 2028 when the PCs came in.
the GO expansion service plan still uses a lot of diesel services, even on electrified lines. Lakeshore West has most of its express services running as diesel still as they mostly continue past Aldershot and into Hamilton and Niagara which won’t be electrified.
I seem to recall Metrolinx planning for the Lakeshore lines to be the first ones to finish construction in the OnCorr contract, which will likely be 2026 or 2027.
I also seem to recall that Metrolinx is planning for the main GO expansion contracts more or less wrapping up by 2028. The 2025 completion date from the liberals was always aggressive and was quietly shifted to 2028 when the PCs came in.
the GO expansion service plan still uses a lot of diesel services, even on electrified lines. Lakeshore West has most of its express services running as diesel still as they mostly continue past Aldershot and into Hamilton and Niagara which won’t be electrified.
crs1026
Superstar
As an observer way up in the nosebleed seats, I take the "commercially astute" realisations to be
1) CN (and CP?) was never going to agree to a bypass that would eventually put CP on their corridor across the top of the GTA. It would take an Act of Parliament to make that happen, and perhaps even then a court challenge, and gobs of money. As we've seen, Ottawa has shown had no interest in acting against CN's interests. That shared bypass makes a lot of theoretical sense, but ML may have underestimated what an uphill battle (no double entendre) getting that greenlighted would be.
2) The elephant of the room all along is probably that GO negotiated a service agreement in the past which may have capped what GO could ask of CN. Some of the Wynne era expansion dreaming probably blew past that legal hurdle. The need to actually negotiate in real terms with CN (as opposed to thinking that CN would gladly agree to anything GO dreamed up) may have only sank in later. Turns out, CN may have had strong legal grounds to "just say no".
3) The 2WAD-without-overpass BCA option is built around only one crossing of the CN line per hour ,and no use of both CN tracks for GO meets. (The option is structured so that both direction of GO trains would cross at Georgetown/Silver at exactly the same time, and only once an hour. That's theoretically possible but a very difficult thing to manage reliably, and it limits GO to hourly service for all time.) Again, ML may have thought that CN would relent on that issue over time, and it may have finally sunk in that CN's position was not going to change. (That's why, in my opinion, the overpass option is far superior to the cheaper no-overpass option....far more operable and more upside for future expansion)
I can't fault CN for mistrusting ML in an era where Wynne and Ministers were making a new, more grandiose promise every time they turned around. But ML should have been testing its thinking with CN all along, and raising red flags if they saw CN not in agreement. One man's astuteness may boil down to another man's refusal to drink the Kool-Aid.
- Paul
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allengeorge
Senior Member
Thanks for the explainer @crs1026
FWIW, I don’t see CN as a particularly sympathetic or enlightened party here. As someone who’s a GO patron, and who has missed trains many times in my life and then had to wait, I really appreciate multiple trains an hour and am glad the Wynne-era government actually dreamed of it - and that the Ford government appears to be continuing it. I’m tired of passengers forever being hostage to freight in the GTA.
FWIW, I don’t see CN as a particularly sympathetic or enlightened party here. As someone who’s a GO patron, and who has missed trains many times in my life and then had to wait, I really appreciate multiple trains an hour and am glad the Wynne-era government actually dreamed of it - and that the Ford government appears to be continuing it. I’m tired of passengers forever being hostage to freight in the GTA.
reaperexpress
Senior Member
GO trains typically save about 2 to 2.5 minutes per station skipped, so if GO can cover Toronto-Kitchener in 90 minutes making 9 intermediate stops, a (VIA) train making 3 intermediate stops could cover the line in 75 to 78 minutes.
However, in practice the speed of VIA service will be reduced by the delays and schedule padding associated with meeting trains in the opposite direction, which may be compounded by the fact that the passing tracks along the corridor will be positioned based on the projected travel time for GO's all-stops services.
To examine how a fast VIA service could fit into the single-tracked line, I reverse-engineered the schedule that GO is assuming for the AD2W - no grade separation scenario (the scenario which has been funded).
The report is pretty light on details, but they did drop enough tidbits to piece together a schedule:
- The travel time will be 98 minutes, of which 8 minutes is extra padding to accommodate the meet at Silver Junction [page 51]
- The basic hourly service will meet at Silver Junction while and simultaneously cross between the Guelph Sub and a south platform at Georgetown Station [page 19]
- Additional platforms will be built at Guelph and Acton stations [page 45]
So to work out the station-to-station times, I started with the 2021 schedule (column A in the image below), and translated them to the proposed stopping pattern by assuming two minutes saved per stop skipped (column B). Then I reduced the travel time to 90 minutes by allocating 17 minutes of travel time savings to the segments I think there is the most potential for improvement (column C). Finally, I added back 8 minutes near Georgetown station (column D).
I placed down an eastbound trip arbitrarily, and then repeated it every hour to represent the "base" hourly service. Westbound trips depart Georgetown 3 minutes before eastbound trips, so that they meet at Silver as described. Based on the travel times, this reveals that the hourly base services will also meet just west of Guelph Station. Hence why GO is building a second platform there.
The second hourly service during peak periods (which I'll call "extra") will meet the base hourly service using the siding at Acton, which I'm assuming will stretch west from the station to position the meet as centrally as possible between the Guelph and Georgetown sidings and thus produce headways as even as possible. Based on the travel times, these extra trips will also encounter the base service just east of Kitchener Station, at a location which is already double-tracked.
Here's the AM peak schedule. I have highlighted the places where eastbound trains meet the first westbound train. The travel times involved some guesswork so they won't be exactly right, but since the end-to-end travel time is correct, the errors should cancel out and the individual station departure times should be within a couple minutes of GO's assumed timetable.
Given the above, here's my guess as to where tracks which will be added to the Guelph Subdivision:
Existing infrastructure in black, new infrastructure in red:
The "Extra" train path would be the one used by CN and VIA trains, during hours it's not being used by GO. Regardless of the type of service using the path, the time in Acton is set in stone because the trains need to meet the base service in a (presumably) short siding there. So variations in travel time between service types need to be accommodated at the adjacent meet locations.
VIA trains skipping Breslau would be a few minutes faster than GO trains, so their next meet to the west would occur further west than with Extra GO trains. That's fine because the new Kitchener Central station will have two platforms (plus future-proofing for a third). Incidentally, this means that we know the platform assignments at the future station: the base service will use the south platform next to the station building, and the VIA and GO "extra" services will use the north platform. That also works out nicely given that all the GO Extra trains will be heading in or out of service, and both of the yards in Kitchener are located on the north side of the corridor.
The meet between CN and the base GO service will be further east given CN's lower average speed. As a result, I suspect that the existing double track in Kitchener may need to be extended somewhat to the east to accommodate this meet.
The next meet to the east would normally occur just west of Brampton Station for GO Extra trains, so GO will presumably fund a new passing track there. It's harder to predict where the new passing tracks will be located along the Halton Sub since trains can technically pass anywhere, but I'm guessing the end result will be something along these lines:
Tracks coloured by primary track user (not necessarily track owner). Green = GO, Blue = CN
The "Extra" path is occupied by GO during all times of day, so VIA will need to use one of the "CN" tracks through the corridor. If VIA skips Georgetown Station, they should have enough of a speed advantage to overtake that GO train and pull in front of it east of Bramalea. Then VIA would have a relatively clear shot down the express tracks of the Weston Sub.
Here's my take at a plausible VIA schedule (in Yellow), with meets highlighted:
The schedule includes 2 extra minutes due to the meet in Acton where the train will typically need to stop and wait for the oncoming GO train, but Acton would not be an official station stop. That way, if the VIA train is behind schedule it can pass through at full speed. By then, the GO train would already be waiting in the siding.
The bottom line is that it does thankfully look possible for VIA to run significantly faster than GO through the corridor, as long as they can negotiate a good train path with CN. The only significant slowdown is that they need to pause at Acton to meet a GO train.
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Northern Light
Superstar
First and foremost; another excellent analysis @reaperexpress
I really must express my deep appreciation for your insights and analysis!
***
Second, a question, is your assumption on VIA based on existing frequencies and times?
As I recall, at one point, VIA was contemplating up to 8 frequencies daily to Windsor; presumably that would be more challenging than the existing pre-Covid schedule.
***
Third, do you have a notion as to how much benefit would be on the table w/grade separation (at Silver)
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Haydenpoon
Active Member
Reading the report (p.50), trains in opposite directions meet at Georgetown GO, not west of Georgetown GO. Therefore, the departure time in both directions at Georgetown GO should be the same.
There are benefits in meeting at Georgetown GO as the train can choose to crossover the CN tracks before or after the station, which increases the chance of a clear crossing path. Here is an oversimplified diagram:
crs1026
Superstar
^@Haydenpoon’s layout would allow an eastbound GO to wait at the north platform for the westbound to arrive at the south platform, or the westbound to wait on the south side for the eastbound to arrive......then both trains could cross over simultaneously, minimizing the interruption to CN.. I think this is the most likely layout for the no-overpass scenario. One could envision fixed (diamond) crossings as opposed to turnouts being used to cross CN.
The added 8 minutes in this option reflects dwell time for both trains in the station, partly to ensure both trains are ready to cross together, and also possibly to give time for any CN train that was already passing to clear the crossovers.
The fly in the ointment would be the need for eastbound CN freights to hold west of Silver if the GO trains were lined. This would block a couple of very bust road crossings, and potentially stop the freight on a grade. I suspect CN would be happier to have the crossing over happen at the Georgetown crossovers, a little further east and with any held-up eastbound trains a bit less hampered by grade.
- Paul
The added 8 minutes in this option reflects dwell time for both trains in the station, partly to ensure both trains are ready to cross together, and also possibly to give time for any CN train that was already passing to clear the crossovers.
The fly in the ointment would be the need for eastbound CN freights to hold west of Silver if the GO trains were lined. This would block a couple of very bust road crossings, and potentially stop the freight on a grade. I suspect CN would be happier to have the crossing over happen at the Georgetown crossovers, a little further east and with any held-up eastbound trains a bit less hampered by grade.
- Paul
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