crs1026
Superstar
^2WAD east of Oshawa would require more track - possibly twice as much - as the peak service previously proposed. That’s not double the construction cost of peak only, but it is some additional amount. Ridership would likely double over peak - suppose fifteen nonpeak runs each way at one third the ridership of a peak train. So I can believe the value proposition would improve, especially since ML incorporates time saved etc in its value calculations. There may be some economic boost to development along the route from 2WAD, which the peak service doesn’t deliver since it only hauls people to jobs or school in Toronto. So, without getting too scientific I can accept by rough reckoning that 2WAD would evaluate more favourably in relative terms.
The problem I see is the absolute cost. The peak service was priced at $550M. Let’s assume a 40% uptick due to adding double track instead of single track - which is all the EA contemplated. Does ML have that much money available to invest in this line? How does that same $800M compare in value proposition versus investing on some other GO line?
Perhaps the recent town hall provoked enough political pain to convince ML that they better not just rag the puck much longer on the Durham file. I would hope the municipal pols in Durham will push for a tangible measurable commitment of what planning and design work will be done by the next provincial election....the tracks won’t be laid by then, but some gate or milestone ought to be a commitment. I’m not that optimistic however....there will be town halls in other towns and there will be other evasions.
Reminds me of the old time travelling salesman with a fiancee in every town....we don’t know which one they will actually wed, but we know there will be lots of disappointment somewhere down the line.
- Paul
The problem I see is the absolute cost. The peak service was priced at $550M. Let’s assume a 40% uptick due to adding double track instead of single track - which is all the EA contemplated. Does ML have that much money available to invest in this line? How does that same $800M compare in value proposition versus investing on some other GO line?
Perhaps the recent town hall provoked enough political pain to convince ML that they better not just rag the puck much longer on the Durham file. I would hope the municipal pols in Durham will push for a tangible measurable commitment of what planning and design work will be done by the next provincial election....the tracks won’t be laid by then, but some gate or milestone ought to be a commitment. I’m not that optimistic however....there will be town halls in other towns and there will be other evasions.
Reminds me of the old time travelling salesman with a fiancee in every town....we don’t know which one they will actually wed, but we know there will be lots of disappointment somewhere down the line.
- Paul
