I'm actually not convinced. The US political system has historically been highly polarized and each party exploits its ebbs and flows. I will grant that Trump has weaponized it better than his predecessors. However, there is still the middle or unaligned, which hovers between 30 and 40% of the electorate. I simply don't see that single, nation-wide, spark that will galvanize the population into battle lines. Smaller localized skirmishes perhaps, perhaps even some irregular militia groups becoming offensive, but I can't see it being sustained. I saw a recent poll, somewhere, that showed support for the President, falling amongst US military personnel.
Noted Civil War historian Nina Silber, a BU professor of history and American studies, on whether the current political climate in the US could lead to another civil war.
www.bu.edu
While I'm broadly inclined to agree with you.
I had a look the other day at recent, very detailed poll.
It examined voting intentions, decided voter voting intentions, also favourable/unfavourables for both Biden/Trump and Harris/Pence.
What caught my eye was the the unfavourables were 54 Biden, 55 Trump, in the independent column, Harris got a higher unfavourable than Pence in the same.
The undecided was 8%, with 4% leaning each way.
That particular poll showed Biden 47/Trump 41.
At face value, if you added back the undecided but leaning, you get 51-45 for Biden.
But the unfavourables can be telling. Voters tend to vote against people more than in favour.
If 54% of Independents don't like Biden....... I'm not concerned most would vote Trump.........but that they might stay home.
In that scenario, its now 47 Biden, 45 Trump; a subsequent poll puts them closer.
Fivethirtyeight.com come gives Trump a 31% chance of a win; other sites have it close to 50/50.
But anything close might be a problem. Civil War, as you note, seems quite unlikely.
I don't see the military bifurcating.
But Civil unrest.....that seems highly plausible.
Barring a big surprise, the Dems will control the House come November.
But the Senate will tell another interesting tale.
The potential for 4 years of gridlock under either party is real; and could also cause enormous frustration.