Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[TheTigerMaster]

So what is the revised cost? I still think it will be lower than current estimate, maybe by about 25-35%. And I have my reasons in believing this. There should be a UT bet on it to make it interesting.

A week ago I would’ve said you’re crazy. But given that the DRL is coming in cheaper than anticipated...

 

[raptor]

The biggest irony being it's actually the DRL that'll for certain cost far multi-billion of dollars more than SSE could ever possibly amount to yet no one on here seemingly will own up to their own hypocrisy over that fact.

DRL makes sense, while SSE does not. End of discussion.

 

[narduch]

The funny thing is that the proposed Subway upload to the Province will add even more delays to this project.

Time will be wasted as a new team of people take over the design from the City. Unless they are planning to hire all the City people away.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The funny thing is that the proposed Subway upload to the Province will add even more delays to this project.

Time will be wasted as a new team of people take over the design from the City. Unless they are planning to hire all the City people away.

Same situation happened when the Crosstown LRT was uploaded to the province. Their contractors had to duplicate all of the TTC’s work, which resulted in a year long delay

 

[syn]

I recall being derided for suggesting the cost would probably be $5 billion or more, even when the city staff outlined the possibility in one of their reports.

There is some merit to the idea that some will justify the cost of this project no matter what it is.

 

[nfitz]

I recall being derided for suggesting the cost would probably be $5 billion or more, even when the city staff outlined the possibility in one of their reports.

Given the rumours for a year or so now that the price is going up, and the last estimate for the 3-station version that the province wants to build being about $4.5 billion, then not only should $5 billion not be a surprise, but that it would be a surprise that it's only $5 billion!

 

[innsertnamehere]

A week ago I would’ve said you’re crazy. But given that the DRL is coming in cheaper than anticipated...

Yea - everyone is expecting it to be $5 billion+.. for the 1 stop version. That's nearly a billion a kilometre with only 1 station.

Construction costs have increased significantly since, but consider that Spadina was built for $3.2 billion, or $372m/kilometre. And that's with 6 palatial stations.

Even if costs more or less doubled to $600 million a kilometre for Scarborough, that'll be $3.9 billion at most. And given how "basic" this extension really is with only a single station, I would be surprised if it were that high.

I could see it dropping slightly to the $3 billion range.

I think that given the political implications of this project too, staff likely gave an extremely high estimate originally to try and avoid the ridiculous politics that would incur if it went "over budget".

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Yea - everyone is expecting it to be $5 billion+.. for the 1 stop version. That's nearly a billion a kilometre with only 1 station.

Construction costs have increased significantly since, but consider that Spadina was built for $3.2 billion, or $372m/kilometre. And that's with 6 palatial stations.

Even if costs more or less doubled to $600 million a kilometre for Scarborough, that'll be $3.9 billion at most. And given how "basic" this extension really is with only a single station, I would be surprised if it were that high.

I could see it dropping slightly to the $3 billion range.

I think that given the political implications of this project too, staff likely gave an extremely high estimate originally to try and avoid the ridiculous politics that would incur if it went "over budget".

Also, if I remember correctly, that the city recently changed accounting practices to incorporate lifecycle costs into the pricing estimate. The costs being floated incorporate more than the construction-related capital costs. Keep this in mind when comparing DRL and SSE to old projects that use the old accounting practices (including crosstown and TYSSE).

If we applied the old accounting practices to the DRL, the costs are around $4 Billion, which is extremely reasonable. I don’t recall the figures for SSE

 

[nfitz]

I know that the SRT is failing and all but might as well call this what it is:

3.5 billion dollar station expansion.

Calling it an expansion is misleading. Line 3 currently has 6 stations (and there's been talk for years of adding up to 4 more stations). There'll still be stations at Kennedy and Scarborough Centre, but it's hardly an expansion when stations are closing completely - particularly after the province has indefinitely deferred the Lawrence East GO station.

 

[pstogios]

The biggest irony being it's actually the DRL that'll for certain cost far multi-billion of dollars more than SSE could ever possibly amount to yet no one on here seemingly will own up to their own hypocrisy over that fact.

Obviously some people hate SSE so much that any ridiculously exaggerated cost projection they can come up with isn't too high for them.

This isn’t about hatred. See that’s what you people don’t understand, it’s always personal with you. You have never gotten it and you never will.

This is about the ridiculousness of building a subway where all measures of ridership and established development so obviously don’t match with the ridiculous cost estimates for this monstrosity. Eliminating a transfer and “respecting” a particularly self-conscious group of residents of the city isn’t worth anywhere close to $10B... or whatever the heck this white elephant will end up costing.

 

[innsertnamehere]

The problem is that the media portrays the ridership as much lower than it actually is. It's nothing mind blowing, but it's higher than the DRL will be north of Bloor IIRC. It's also the last station on the line - I hope the subway isn't running at 50% capacity or else it'll have real capacity issues further down the line.

 

[Rainforest]

Calling it an expansion is misleading. Line 3 currently has 6 stations (and there's been talk for years of adding up to 4 more stations). There'll still be stations at Kennedy and Scarborough Centre, but it's hardly an expansion when stations are closing completely - particularly after the province has indefinitely deferred the Lawrence East GO station.

That's true. This project is not an expansion, it is a network connectivity enhancement. Some riders will lose out if they had walk-in access to the stations being closed. But a much greater number of riders, who always had to take a bus to STC first, will see their commute being faster and more convenient.

That said, the exact current route is a result of a rather odd design process. Once they decided to eliminate the Lawrence / McCowan station at the hospital, the chief reason for tunneling under McCowan had been lost, and it would be perfectly logical to revisit the Uxbridge Sub alignment which would likely be cheaper and would retain a station at Lawrence. But, not a chance, they stuck to the McCowan route.

 

[Rainforest]

Also, if I remember correctly, that the city recently changed accounting practices to incorporate lifecycle costs into the pricing estimate. The costs being floated incorporate more than the construction-related capital costs. Keep this in mind when comparing DRL and SSE to old projects that use the old accounting practices (including crosstown and TYSSE).

If we applied the old accounting practices to the DRL, the costs are around $4 Billion, which is extremely reasonable. I don’t recall the figures for SSE

Good point. However, then the cost of SSE (in the configuration that ends at STC) shouldn't exceed $3 Billion according to those same old accounting practices.

The basic laws of physics are same in Scarborough, downtown, or East York. DRL South will be longer than SSE, will have more stops, and will have to deal with more utility relocations. Therefore, one should reasonably expect that SSE will be substantially cheaper than DRL South.

If the latter is around $4 Billion, then the former shouldn't be more than $3 Billion.

 

[nfitz]

If the latter is around $4 Billion, then the former shouldn't be more than $3 Billion.

Using the traditional model, the estimates for both are significantly higher. The city's May 2017 cost estimate (0 to 2% design) was $6.8 billion for Relief Line south - and that's strictly the capital, and not including "the cost of potential bus terminals, or maintenance and storage facilities" and "potential DBF costs associated with financing, AFP/procurement". I'm not even sure if it includes property acquisition!

Somehow in the Feburary 2019 Metrolinx report, the cost of Relief Line south has dropped to ±$5.2 – 5.5 Billion. Whether this be grossly out of date, of reflecting an advancement in the design I don't know.

There's no indication it's $4 billion though, or the one-station Scarborough Centre station would be only $3 billion!

 

[Rainforest]

Using the traditional model, the estimates for both are significantly higher. The city's May 2017 cost estimate (0 to 2% design) was $6.8 billion for Relief Line south - and that's strictly the capital, and not including "the cost of potential bus terminals, or maintenance and storage facilities" and "potential DBF costs associated with financing, AFP/procurement". I'm not even sure if it includes property acquisition!

Somehow in the Feburary 2019 Metrolinx report, the cost of Relief Line south has dropped to ±$5.2 – 5.5 Billion. Whether this be grossly out of date, of reflecting an advancement in the design I don't know.

There's no indication it's $4 billion though, or the one-station Scarborough Centre station would be only $3 billion!

OK. Let's see for the details on both projects to be published.

That drop in the RL cost estimate is truly remarkable. By now, I am used to all transit construction funding demands going up steadily.