Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Streety McCarface]

That's a good point. Definitely not an example of how things should be done.

Well, generally speaking history demonstrates that it doesn't work - certainly not to any degree that justifies the initial investment, especially when there's other more pressing needs.

The problem with extensions like the TYSSE and the SSE is that they are being largely justified on future growth. There is no business case for the SSE based on actual ridership, density and demand.

Over the long term it generally does, but that implies running a subway line nowhere near capacity for a significant amount of time while density eventually follows after decades. It's why the Yonge and Bloor subways are so popular, they've been around for over 50 years. They've had time to allow for density to build up. Of course, there was existing demand on both corridors and as a result, while they both ran under-capacity for decades, they had room to grow, while still being used enough to justify subway service. Sheppard is a little tricky because for a relatively young, super short line, it is very well used, especially since its in the suburbs and has led to significant improvements to Sheppard overall, however, it's not as full as we might have wanted it to be, and we don't know whether it was ever justified in being a priority or not.

I'd say the current SSE plan is poorly planned, because it doesn't account for current travel patterns. The best solution is the three stop one, even though it's significantly more expensive. An increase of 2 billion dollars to the budget would pretty much double ridership on opening, which would justify its existence. There's no reason for a subway to run for 7 km without anywhere to add potential riders, especially when there's a RER corridor right next to it. A three stop solution would shift it's existence from a growth-based plan, to one in which serves existing travel problems. With this, however, an influx of riders would need to be accounted for elsewhere in the system. The Relief Line is quintessential to this, however, there are other solutions that can mitigate issues while the relief line is built (open gangway cars, better signaling, more trains, platform edge doors (no need for screen doors which I believe are too heavy for the existing platforms without expensive modifications), better yard management, adding the walkway back at Spadina to reduce crowding at St George and Bloor, enhance the streetcar and RER networks, etc). They say 30% of travel in Scarborough is heading to old Toronto, and for a section of the city with 600K people, that equates to around 200K people that head downtown daily (or 400K trips). Heading downtown will always be best done on transit, and the easier we make it for people, we can eat further into the downtown traffic market. Currently, the TTC already carries around 170K of those daily trips (sum of ridership at Vic Park, Warden, Kennedy, and the SRT). If that number is increased to 225,000 (or holds 57% of the market), the SSE will be carrying 55,000 additional trips (along with the SRTs 40K), which isn't far fetched given the incentives of better bus service and easy connections (and the fact that the Eglinton Crosstown will give options for commuters to midtown). If we honestly have a budget crises, then the best thing to do is renew the rolling stock of the SRT and build the Relief line, but if the fords want to get this project done, we should just let them. We can build Eglinton east instead.

 

[BurlOak]

Over the long term it generally does, but that implies running a subway line nowhere near capacity for a significant amount of time while density eventually follows after decades. It's why the Yonge and Bloor subways are so popular, they've been around for over 50 years. They've had time to allow for density to build up. Of course, there was existing demand on both corridors and as a result, while they both ran under-capacity for decades, they had room to grow, while still being used enough to justify subway service. Sheppard is a little tricky because for a relatively young, super short line, it is very well used, especially since its in the suburbs and has led to significant improvements to Sheppard overall, however, it's not as full as we might have wanted it to be, and we don't know whether it was ever justified in being a priority or not.

I'd say the current SSE plan is poorly planned, because it doesn't account for current travel patterns. The best solution is the three stop one, even though it's significantly more expensive. An increase of 2 billion dollars to the budget would pretty much double ridership on opening, which would justify its existence. There's no reason for a subway to run for 7 km without anywhere to add potential riders, especially when there's a RER corridor right next to it. A three stop solution would shift it's existence from a growth-based plan, to one in which serves existing travel problems. With this, however, an influx of riders would need to be accounted for elsewhere in the system. The Relief Line is quintessential to this, however, there are other solutions that can mitigate issues while the relief line is built (open gangway cars, better signaling, more trains, platform edge doors (no need for screen doors which I believe are too heavy for the existing platforms without expensive modifications), better yard management, adding the walkway back at Spadina to reduce crowding at St George and Bloor, enhance the streetcar and RER networks, etc). They say 30% of travel in Scarborough is heading to old Toronto, and for a section of the city with 600K people, that equates to around 200K people that head downtown daily (or 400K trips). Heading downtown will always be best done on transit, and the easier we make it for people, we can eat further into the downtown traffic market. Currently, the TTC already carries around 170K of those daily trips (sum of ridership at Vic Park, Warden, Kennedy, and the SRT). If that number is increased to 225,000 (or holds 57% of the market), the SSE will be carrying 55,000 additional trips (along with the SRTs 40K), which isn't far fetched given the incentives of better bus service and easy connections (and the fact that the Eglinton Crosstown will give options for commuters to midtown). If we honestly have a budget crises, then the best thing to do is renew the rolling stock of the SRT and build the Relief line, but if the fords want to get this project done, we should just let them. We can build Eglinton east instead.

Eglinton being at-grade between Leslie and Kennedy likely means that we have lost any likelihood that Ford would fund either extension.
With the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown in place, there would be definite talk to extend the line from STC to Malvern (and maybe a branch from Centennial to UTSC) in the East and Pearson in the West - both area which are PC ridings.
More fall-out from the 2011/12 decisions to defeat Rob Ford at all costs.

 

[Streety McCarface]

Eglinton being at-grade between Leslie and Kennedy likely means that we have lost any likelihood that Ford would fund either extension.
With the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown in place, there would be definite talk to extend the line from STC to Malvern (and maybe a branch from Centennial to UTSC) in the East and Pearson in the West - both area which are PC ridings.
More fall-out from the 2011/12 decisions to defeat Rob Ford at all costs.

We know he won't fund those extensions, but it means that while he can fund certain projects (ie the SSE), the city can fund projects they feel are necessary.

 

[Voltz]

Eglinton being at-grade between Leslie and Kennedy likely means that we have lost any likelihood that Ford would fund either extension.
With the Eglinton-Scarborough Crosstown in place, there would be definite talk to extend the line from STC to Malvern (and maybe a branch from Centennial to UTSC) in the East and Pearson in the West - both area which are PC ridings.
More fall-out from the 2011/12 decisions to defeat Rob Ford at all costs.

There are days on here that I wonder if we have breached into an alternate reality or something.

Rob Fords plan was defeated because it was a shitty plan, not because of some obsessive desire to defeat anything from him.

And if anyone is to blame for transit not getting built to Malvern, it's him.

 

[syn]

Over the long term it generally does, but that implies running a subway line nowhere near capacity for a significant amount of time while density eventually follows after decades. It's why the Yonge and Bloor subways are so popular, they've been around for over 50 years. They've had time to allow for density to build up. Of course, there was existing demand on both corridors and as a result, while they both ran under-capacity for decades, they had room to grow, while still being used enough to justify subway service. Sheppard is a little tricky because for a relatively young, super short line, it is very well used, especially since its in the suburbs and has led to significant improvements to Sheppard overall, however, it's not as full as we might have wanted it to be, and we don't know whether it was ever justified in being a priority or not.

But it isn't well used, all things considered. Bayview, Leslie and Bessarion (lowest station ridership in the system by far at 2,880 from 2016 stats) are among the least use stations in the system. It's basically a subway shuttle from Fairview.

The 510 Spadina is not far off in terms of ridership, despite being just 800m away (a 10 minute walk) from the University Line. In driving terms that's about 2-3 minutes (in normal traffic of course). What would ridership on Sheppard be like if there was a subway running on Finch? Probably not so great.

Unlike the Yonge Line, where there was no going back to a streetcar, there are options for Scarborough that absolutely do not require a subway. Upgrading the current RT, as most seem to agree, would still be a great solution.

 

[JSF-1]

There are days on here that I wonder if we have breached into an alternate reality or something.

Rob Fords plan was defeated because it was a shitty plan, not because of some obsessive desire to defeat anything from him.

And if anyone is to blame for transit not getting built to Malvern, it's him.

Also when people talk about Fords grade separation for the EC, they always leave out the fact it was "Underground". Never in a million years could an underground line be justified on Eglinton outside of the midtown section that already is. The reason the midtown section is underground is because there was nowhere else to put the line, however Scarborough has an abundance of space (probably the only benefit of being a low-density suburban hellscape).

 

[OneCity]

Do you ever tire of the, dare I say, trolling?

That's a picture of a house. Here's a picture just west of High Park on Bloor in 1920- the subway opened just behind these buildings, nearly 50 years later.

The buildings on the right still exist.

Here is Dundas & Roncesvalles, looking north towards Bloor in 1912 (54 years before Dundas West opened)

The point, which you missed, is that areas like Roncesvalles, the Junction and the High Park area were already established neighbourhoods on a walkable, urban grid with a mix of commercial and residential activity. They were already serviced by busy streetcar routes (including the busiest streetcar line in the city before it was replaced by the Bloor Danforth line).

They weren't 'planned' communities that sprung up thanks to a subway being built.

The original point still stands, unless of course you'd like to post another picture of a house.

The picture reminds me of miniature Eglinton ave East and miniature Kingston Rd.

It seems walkable areas with mid-rise build and fruit stands were the foundation as to which much of Toronto current subway was built upon. Scarborough Centre simply doesn't enough walkable fruit stands

 

[OneCity]

There are days on here that I wonder if we have breached into an alternate reality or something.

Rob Fords plan was defeated because it was a shitty plan, not because of some obsessive desire to defeat anything from him.

And if anyone is to blame for transit not getting built to Malvern, it's him.

A good plan doesn't get overturned as a front line Mayoral campaign item. Mix the 2 "shitty" plans together and we'll have a very good plan. Ford had the priorities right by connecting the Centre seamlessly first.

 

[BurlOak]

Also when people talk about Fords grade separation for the EC, they always leave out the fact it was "Underground". Never in a million years could an underground line be justified on Eglinton outside of the midtown section that already is. The reason the midtown section is underground is because there was nowhere else to put the line, however Scarborough has an abundance of space (probably the only benefit of being a low-density suburban hellscape).

And other people leave out that Ford's MOU allowed elevation over Don Valley and near Kennedy. He was expecting Stintz (TTC) and Liberals (Metrolinx) to find savings (so he could gather more money for Sheppard).

 

[steveintoronto]

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/an-end-of-the-line-at-metrolinx

See: 4:50 and on.

 

[syn]

On TVO's Agenda, former Metrolinx chair Rob Prichard says regarding Scarborough subway extension: "We don't think the numbers support the cost of a subway," but three levels of government wanted it.

https://tvo.org/video/programs/the-agenda-with-steve-paikin/an-end-of-the-line-at-metrolinx

See: 4:50 and on.

There's a very obvious pattern - almost every politician/official that gets to speak honestly about this project after leaving their post is against it, or at least suggests there is no real business case for it.

 

[OneCity]

There's a very obvious pattern - almost every politician/official that gets to speak honestly about this project after leaving their post is against it, or at least suggests there is no real business case for it.

There is an obvious pattern of extreme opposition feeling justified when someone slags the current line but refusing to note the other plans or what Rob Ford initially agreed to from the Metrolinx report. Pushing for a comparison of the two worst possible lines of transfer LRT to Keesmaat-Tory the one stop subway and ignoring the cheaper, improved solutions has dumbed down any debate, not helped their own cause

Also obvious is the pattern of attack Scarborough Centres connection has been under while a far less justified extension to Vaughan went with little coverage and opposition. With this pattern of political double standard, and drawn out butchering of the transit debate with two very poor solutions you cant expect the residents of the diverse, lower income and massive Borough to care about chopping costs at this stage. Local Politicians and all party Leaders have little choice but to represent these residents who have not been allowed a fair debate debate due to extreme outside opposition. Democracy at work now, surely Ford will re-iterate this pattern of nonsense when he finalizes the Provinces decision to move forward with the best long term plan to serve the residents who had their voices and legitimate concerns quashed for decades. David Miller had every opportunity for a business case before dividing the City with a poorly planned transit plan. Really its far too late for the foul cries.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

Frankly I agree. The SSE had problems, and we've made it utterly impossible to discuss them meaningfuly. I liked, and still like, Miller, but he really didn't have a clue about Scarborough and played asisnine games with both the SRT and Sheppard.

Remember that his preference was for SELRT and extending the SRT as ICTS for some reason.

 

[BurlOak]

Frankly I agree. The SSE had problems, and we've made it utterly impossible to discuss them meaningfuly. I liked, and still like, Miller, but he really didn't have a clue about Scarborough and played asisnine games with both the SRT and Sheppard.

Remember that his preference was for SELRT and extending the SRT as ICTS for some reason.

Miller putting SELRT as #1 priority also hurt. His goal was to kill all talk of subway right at the start - but it essentially derailed his entire plan.
SRT with ICTS (SkyTrain) was the TTC plan in 2007. In 2008 - Miller brought in LRT for SRT. I don't think Miller ever endorsed ITCS.

 

[Bureaucromancer]

I don't think Miller ever endorsed ITCS.

My understanding is that it was him personally that kept the SRT from being part of Transit City from day 1. Similarly, it was definitely him personally when it came to SELRT bring a cudgel used against subways, and that was imo his great failing.

Things would have been so much easier with Finch the top priority and the SRT conversion assumed from the start.

Frankly I dont feel like there was all this anti lrt feeling until Miller created it by making LRT the only thing he would allow discussion of. The holy war against subways was artificial then, and most definitely did backfire spectacularly.