Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[kEiThZ]

@Electrify

Nonsense.

In reality, what Scarborough councillors did was work on concentrating density at SCC, and that's why SCC is slowly becoming an actual dense node.

And Scarborough having more subway than 3 out of 5 of the old boroughs is pointless when the main line in Scarborough was an ugly orphan without the capacity of the actual subway.

People need to realize that the bulk of demand in Scarborough is between STC and Kennedy. Also, stations are so close together, that with most riders arriving by bus, ridership can be concentrated. For example, when I get off the Progress bus at McCowan to get a seat instead of continuing to STC, I bolster McCowan's numbers. Once you start concentrating Ellesmere, and McCowan's ridership at STC, STC won't look that tiny anymore.

 

[kEiThZ]

@Forgotten

How would LRT change anything? Most would be accessing the LRT by bus. They'd just have a shorter bus ride.

The TTC says that extending the LRT to Malvern will save me 11mins overall. Guess what? It's a wash if the subway is extended to STC because I would save 5-10 mins from the transfer.

And unless you live in the immediate vicinity of the SRT station, most will benefit, because the vast majority of riders arrive at an SRT station by bus, which will be routed to a subway station in the future.

The area with the most walk-ins by the way? McCowan/STC.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Wait, what? Scarborough had more subway than 3 out of 5 of the former municipalities. In fact up until the Sheppard line, it arguably had more rapid transit than any other municipality besides Toronto. Etobicoke has a short stub making its way into its city limits, while East York may have had a small stretch actually within its limits, with the rest just beyond the border. York really got screwed since they have absolutely nothing, except maybe Old Mill station located in a park in a remote corner of its boundaries. To add insult to injury, they were all set to get their own line before Harris cancelled it.

The problem with the SRT isn't the line itself, but how it is operated and designed. If Scarborough councillors opted to concentrate transit oriented developments along the line and extend it throughout the former city and beyond, purchased more trains to increase frequency, etc it could have been a fine rapid transit line. Instead it was treated as a stillborn after its completion, a victim of an ideology where cars were supreme and only the poor would take transit.

But that's not they way the voters saw it. You of course have a point.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

The funniest part about this whole thing is people in Scarborough will have to wait out in the cold for the bus until the end of time to take them to the terminal at STC and have nice long walk to get to the trains. No wonder people in Scarborough poll the lowest when it comes to paying up for more.

@Electrify

Nonsense.

In reality, what Scarborough councillors did was work on concentrating density at SCC, and that's why SCC is slowly becoming an actual dense node.

And Scarborough having more subway than 3 out of 5 of the old boroughs is pointless when the main line in Scarborough was an ugly orphan without the capacity of the actual subway.

People need to realize that the bulk of demand in Scarborough is between STC and Kennedy. Also, stations are so close together, that with most riders arriving by bus, ridership can be concentrated. For example, when I get off the Progress bus at McCowan to get a seat instead of continuing to STC, I bolster McCowan's numbers. Once you start concentrating Ellesmere, and McCowan's ridership at STC, STC won't look that tiny anymore.

The Subway will only stop at STC if they are stupid. This should go to McCowan and Sheppard. Or McCowan and Finch. Make it a line and not a stub like the current STC.

 

[Adjei]

Just heard on Metro Morning, Glen Murray said the province is not going to pay the extra billion, so it's up to Toronto to foot the bill if they want the subway.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

The funniest part about this whole thing is people in Scarborough will have to wait out in the cold for the bus until the end of time to take them to the terminal at STC and have nice long walk to get to the trains. No wonder people in Scarborough poll the lowest when it comes to paying up for more.

Won't there be a station right outside STC?

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Just heard on Metro Morning, Glen Murray said the province is not going to pay the extra billion, so it's up to Toronto to foot the bill if they want the subway.

Good. And while we work on that, we should also look at generating funds for various other unfinished transit projects. Probably too much to ask of council though.

 

[k10ery]

This isn't like Sheppard though, where the the subway extension would handle a peak of 5,000 an hour. In their January 2013 report, TTC estimated the 2031 ridership of the Danforth extension to be almost 10,000 an hour.

I didn't think anybody believed ridership forecasts after the whoppers they've told iin the past for the Sheppard and Vaughan projects. But even taking it at face value you know the forecast difference between LRT and subway is just 2000 at peak hour, right? Again there is no way that additional ridership could justify $1 billion extra for a subway. You know this.

Don't hold your breath on that one. These things never get approved without political influence.

Politicians need to approve the broad routing choice and the funding envelope. As much as possible they should stay away from technology choices. This was the idea behind a non-political Metrolinx board, wasn't it?

In an ideal world, Murray would have to resign for meddling in the business of an arm's length agency, just as he would have to resign (I hope) if he made a public comment on a sub judice legal case or telephoned a judge.

 

[kEiThZ]

I didn't think anybody believed ridership forecasts after the whoppers they've told iin the past for the Sheppard and Vaughan projects. But even taking it at face value you know the forecast difference between LRT and subway is just 2000 at peak hour, right? Again there is no way that additional ridership could justify $1 billion extra for a subway. You know this.

You don't believe Sheppard and Vaughan numbers, but you believe the planners when they say that there will only be 2000 more riders? I would argue that it will be higher than that, especially if extended to Sheppard/McCowan?

Politicians need to approve the broad routing choice and the funding envelope. As much as possible they should stay away from technology choices. This was the idea behind a non-political Metrolinx board, wasn't it?

In an ideal world, Murray would have to resign for meddling in the business of an arm's length agency, just as he would have to resign (I hope) if he made a public comment on a sub judice legal case or telephoned a judge.

Sorry, but major expenditure by the government is an inherently political exercise and should never be left entirely to bureaucrats. That's taking it from one extreme to the other. The day the government decides to give the public no say in how billions in tax dollars are spent, is the day it loses legitimacy.

 

[nfitz]

See above...

Elections=They buy votes...

Politicians are so predictable...

People seem to be implying this is all about the current by-election in a Liberal safe seat in Scarborough.

Given it's a safe Liberal seat, this seems unlikely. The downside of a loss isn't even that bad, given it will be a Liberal minority win or lose.

 

[k10ery]

So the incremental capital cost is now $1.6 billion (escalated). Will that shut people up?

http://t.co/IPHJbCZAel

Edit: shut up the Stintz faction that is! Not the good people on this board, who I hope keep talking about this til 2020.

 

[JayBeeGooner]

So the incremental capital cost is now $1.6 billion (escalated). Will that shut people up?

http://t.co/IPHJbCZAel

You know it won't

SUBWAYS, SUBWAYS, SUBWAYS!!

Council would have to be mental to go the subway option.

 

[bobbob911]

So the incremental capital cost is now $1.6 billion (escalated). Will that shut people up?

http://t.co/IPHJbCZAel

Edit: shut up the Stintz faction that is! Not the good people on this board, who I hope keep talking about this til 2020.

Plus $450M for ATC. On the other hand, assuming 4% average inflation during the construction term is a bit conservative.

Is 2018 start date and 6 years of construction new information?

 

[nfitz]

So the incremental capital cost is now $1.6 billion (escalated). Will that shut people up?

Reading the report, that doesn't seem to include the $0.5 billion to install ATC on the Bloor-Danforth line, which the report says would become necessary with the extension (presumably because of increased ridership). So that's $2.1 billion.

Edit - ah, bobbob911 beat me to it.

On the other hand, assuming 4% average inflation during the construction term is a bit conservative.

4% is typical. 5% is often used as well. Look at the long-term average construction inflation. Some individual years have exceeded 10%! Note, this is the construction inflation rate, driven primarily by oil, stone, steel, and labour costs. Not the consumer price inflation rate, which has been depressed artificially for years by replacing domestic produced products with cheaper imports. Neither oil, stone, nor steel benefits from this!

 

[k10ery]

Plus $450M for ATC.

Right. For the 40K people who now take the SRT, $2 billion is $50,000 each. That's about the same as family income out there. How many people on the RT wouldn't take $50K, TAX FREE, over a subway extension that saves them a transfer at Kennedy?

Politicians should NOT do transit planning.