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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

The Star has an article on Transit half-step no cause for celebration, at this link.

Wake up, people!

Pay attention, please. A billion dollars of our tax money — maybe $2 billion — is at risk, and nobody seems to give a damn.

Have we all lost our minds?

This past week, the city politicians and sycophant citizens congratulated themselves at city hall as city staff lucked into saving us $1.1 billion on the Scarborough subway. The money fell into their laps.

The saving didn’t result from any council vote, action, request for study, demand for due diligence, insistence on the application of planning principles to proposals. No. It came about because chief planner Jennifer Keesmaat could not sign off on the proposals Mayor John Tory and Scarborough politicians insisted on promoting.

The approved plan — an expensive subway right next to an expensive SmartTrack — made no sense. Still, the politicians persisted. There was talk of Keesmaat being fired. Keesmaat and her staff found a fix.

Her version is better and smarter. It’s something she can support, finally, ending the war with the mayor’s office. It saves the subway and SmartTrack. And it saves about $1 billion.

That’s a testament to how atrocious a plan the mayor and city council had sworn by — the one they insisted must not be amended for fear of delays.

Now, there they were again, at executive committee Thursday, shameless, no sign of remorse, embracing the Keesmaat fix as unassailably brilliant, better than their own paper-thin, original bauble.

Still, anyone who offered another possibility found himself at the end of noses that wiggled disdain, dismissing the dissenter as a nuisance. In tone and attitude (some of the politicians have not even looked at the Keesmaat compromise, so committed they are to any plan the mayor backs), this was the message:

Keesmaat’s changes are great. Let’s move on. No need to look back at how we might have made such a horrible mistake.

But wait, Keesmaat’s compromise is not necessarily the best. She was just trying to broker a deal between bad options. Don’t you want her to do better? Give you her best? There may even be another billion dollars to save.

Well, no. Cut our losses, er, our gains. We’re good. Build, build, build.

I wish I were exaggerating. Bolstered by a debate-weary public and a co-opted and distracted media, the guardians of our tax dollars behave like drunken sailors when dealing with the transit file.

City council approves $3.56 billion for a subway, minus study and due diligence. John Tory adds potentially another billion to the cost by inserting SmartTrack in the same corridor. And when city staff this week saves their bacon because the approved plan does not work, there is no hell to pay. Nobody is held accountable. Media and citizens join the back-slapping and praise service, thanking Keesmaat, the deliverer, for redemption.

Keesmaat deserves praise. At least she offered some resistance to the runaway train that was the transit plan for Scarborough. But, with a little more prompting, a bit of a push and the tiniest of desire for the best plan at the best price, we might do so much better.

Here’s one idea floated to the executive committee: Don’t build the one-stop subway from Kennedy and Eglinton up to Scarborough Town Centre, a distance of about six kilometres and costing $2.6 billion. (This Keesmaat option deletes stops at Lawrence and at Sheppard and saves $1.1 billion.)

Instead, use the GO corridor, with the very trains that SmartTrack will run, to provide the service. Metrolinx would run its planned trains every 15 minutes to Unionville. Concurrently, Tory’s SmartTrack service — as frequently as five minutes, as envisioned by Keesmaat — would branch off at Ellesmere and run into the Town Centre.

Call it SmartSpur. Or SER, for Scarborough Express Rail.

Cost: At the most, $1.1 billion (if you keep the Scarborough RT running), says Karl Junkin, the railway designer who researched and authored the report for Transport Action Ontario in 2013.

So, add up the savings. The $3.56-billion Rob Ford subway morphs into the $2.6-billion Keesmaat subway. And, maybe, all we need is the $1.1-billion SmartTrack surface subway, as Junkin envisions.

It’s brilliant, if it can work. From the Town Centre, passengers can travel the near 22 kilometres straight to downtown every five minutes: one seat, no transfer to the Bloor-Danforth line (unless you wish to). And we save $2.5 billion in all.


This spur line from the Stouffville GO corridor, already being upgraded by Metrolinx to allow 14 trains per hour in each direction, could go to Centennial College at Progress, and up to the real Malvern corridor, as earlier envisioned, for the same price.

Keesmaat has the authority to study this. But there was no champion at the executive committee, just some quizzical faces and weird statements suggesting fears that this proposal might work. (Because, of course, if it does, some would argue Scarborough isn’t getting the “subway” the politicians promised.)

Now that we have opened up the Scarborough transit plan that Tory fretted about amending, consider all the options, please.​

The negative would be that after branching off at Ellesmere (or nearby), the headway service would be halved. For both those going on the branch to the Scarborough Town Centre, and those continuing on the branch going north.
 
Keesmaat pulled Council's chestnuts out of the fire - and Tory's too - with this plan. She has also pulled her political fortunes out as well. Looking back to the Gardiner debate, where she challenged Tory and lost, she has managed to pretty much reversed her fortunes and solidify her reputation - and validate the principle of letting experts, not politicians, plan transit - for future issues.

If she were to pull out the stops and fight Council on this one, she would likely fail and put her back in the penalty box. Whereas with this victory, she will likely be sought out for the next debate. We need her credibility and weight behind DRL planning, and more. In my view the principle of 'pick your battles' applies. We need to let Tory and Council save face on this one.

We would have spent $1B replacing SRT with LRT - the technically preferable solution, but a political non starter. Instead we are spending $2B. And we get the "Malvern" LRT for $1B - instead of only a $3B subway. So now $2B is spent wisely, only $1B is wasted, and Scarboro is pacified.

If you only look at this with SRT blinders, yes we are wasting $1B. But if you look at what Keesmaat will save us, and the value she will inject into future debates, it's the best money Toronto ever spent.

As you can probably tell, I'm a Keesmaat fan. She is on her way to become (arguably already is) Toronto's most influential woman. Karen Stinz must be green with envy.

- Paul
 
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Let's say there is one branch of SmartTrack to Malvern through STC and Centennial. The other branch goes to Agincourt and Markham. Each branch is five minutes.

How evenly distributed would the ridership be? Consider that everyone north of 401 between McCowan and Vic Park would likely take the Markham branch of SmartTrack. Current bus patterns bring people in north Scarborough either to STC, or west to the Yonge line (a few go west to Don Mills Station) - this could be re-adjusted. At Kennedy, the two branches come together (they actually come together at Ellesmere, but that's due to geography and not demand necessity) just when additional travelers from ECLRT, SMLRT and Kingston BRT routes join in.
 
We would have spent $1B replacing SRT with LRT - the technically preferable solution, but a political non starter. Instead we are spending $2B. And we get the "Malvern" LRT for $1B - instead of only a $3B subway. So now $2B is spent wisely, only $1B is wasted, and Scarboro is pacified.
I thought this new subway was costing $2.5 billion. Why did you round it down to $2 billion? $500 million is a lot of money.
 
And the SRT replacement with LRT was planned at $1.8B (to Sheppard). Maybe replacement of the existing part (not sure if that was ever planned) would have been closer to (but still above) $1B. Maybe using SkyTrain Mark III would have been $1B or less.
 
I thought this new subway was costing $2.5 billion. Why did you round it down to $2 billion? $500 million is a lot of money.

You are right, based on the recently published numbers. That said, it is a bit surprising that a 6-km long subway tunnel with only one new station will cost as much as $2.5 billion. I would expect something like $250 million / km for tunneling / tracks / electricals etc, and maybe $300 million for the new station at STC (note that it may be possible to reuse the existing bus terminal). Thus, the total should be about $1.8 billion.

Let's wait for the more detailed cost projections.
 
You are right, based on the recently published numbers. That said, it is a bit surprising that a 6-km long subway tunnel with only one new station will cost as much as $2.5 billion. I would expect something like $250 million / km for tunneling / tracks / electricals etc, and maybe $300 million for the new station at STC (note that it may be possible to reuse the existing bus terminal). Thus, the total should be about $1.8 billion.

Let's wait for the more detailed cost projections.
Wow! Between $1.8 and $2.5 billion - before cost overruns, which we could ballpark at 20% for now - and we get exactly one new subway stop. Since this is more about the recognition of the people of Scarborough as every bit as good as the downtown elites, if a lot less densely housed, maybe we could just give every person in Scarborough a thousand bucks on the condition we never ever talk about extending the BD line again. It would be a lot cheaper and arguably wouldn't leave Scarborough transit significantly worse than the plan du jour.
 
Wow! Between $1.8 and $2.5 billion - before cost overruns, which we could ballpark at 20% for now - and we get exactly one new subway stop. Since this is more about the recognition of the people of Scarborough as every bit as good as the downtown elites, if a lot less densely housed, maybe we could just give every person in Scarborough a thousand bucks on the condition we never ever talk about extending the BD line again. It would be a lot cheaper and arguably wouldn't leave Scarborough transit significantly worse than the plan du jour.

I still think we should just rebuild SCC around Warden station. Demolish all the existing buildings, and put up equivalents in the new location.
 
That guy is full of arrogance. He contributed nothing to find the solution currently on the table, yet he thinks all other parties involved are idiots.

He has no idea if his new solution is technically feasible (it might be, but that is a subject of engineering studies). But he is already busy inventing names for it.

Worse. Guys like him are part of the problem. The lack of compromise by purists who insists that there can be no compromise (on the subway or LRT side) will inevitably result in either worse waste or political gridlock. It's like he wants another Ford-esque politician to get elected.

The Keesmat compromise is actually pretty smart. And Royson James completely misses the point.

1) It avoids an SRT shutdown during construction. Doesn't matter how anybody skins this, it would have been a huge problem when it actually happened. And I'm betting quite a few local politicians would be risking their jobs. This is what motivated several of them to go subway. Something a lot of critics and posters on here miss.

2) It provides a very reasonable plan B to Smart Track. The subway and Crosstown East is still on, even if Smart Track completely fails.

3) It provides service to Southeast Scarborough. The previous LRT plan and the previous subway plan completely ignored southeast Scarborough, for a vague promise of the SMLRT at some point in the future. And worse, because the ECLRT would curve north, the SMLRT would be delinked from Eglinton, creating a forced transfer at Kennedy.

That's some Gordian knots that Keesmat cut. And Royson James would have that knot retied just so we can go back to Transit City. Save a billion and achieve nothing but the re-election of another Ford like mayor. And probably more right wing nuts as councillors from Scarborough. If you think the current crop is bad....just wait to see what happens if the Keesmat compromise fails.
 
Worse. Guys like him are part of the problem. The lack of compromise by purists who insists that there can be no compromise (on the subway or LRT side)
It is amazing how much the subway side compromised, while the LRT side would not budge.

There was the connected Eglinton-Scarborough line, then the Subway up the SRT corridor, then the study of a number of possibilities along Eglinton and up to STC.

The LRT side did not budge one inch. In all the time the subway side was exploring ways to find acceptance, the LRT side dug in their heels and refused to listen to a single complaint.
 
This ST/LRT/STC subway is a damn good one and just as importantly, politically palatable.

Yes, I think the STC one stop for %2.5 billion is too much but that is the most it will cost as the route is not finalized and I think you will see a combination use of at grade thru the GO corridor and use of the hydro corridor to make it much more affordable, faster to build, and still keep the SRT running until the entire route is completed.

Build it.
 
This ST/LRT/STC subway is a damn good one and just as importantly, politically palatable.

Yes, I think the STC one stop for %2.5 billion is too much but that is the most it will cost as the route is not finalized and I think you will see a combination use of at grade thru the GO corridor and use of the hydro corridor to make it much more affordable, faster to build, and still keep the SRT running until the entire route is completed.

Build it.

I highly doubt the Scarborough subway extension will only add one new stop. I'm sure roughed in station boxes will be reserved at Brimley/Eglinton and McCowan/Lawrence for stations to be infilled as more funds become available. Wouldn't surprise me if the tail tracks not lead up to the 401 either, even crosses it, making it easier for a future northern extension.
 
1) It avoids an SRT shutdown during construction. Doesn't matter how anybody skins this, it would have been a huge problem when it actually happened. And I'm betting quite a few local politicians would be risking their jobs. This is what motivated several of them to go subway. Something a lot of critics and posters on here miss.
That point can't be stated enough. And a long shutdown with its associated political risks is why Sheppard will never be converted to LRT.
 
By using the hydro corridor then tunnel at Brimley they could do all the work on that huge section without having to even tough the current SRT route and if they used elevation they could basically run the SRT problem free and get the Scar subway built much cheaper and faster.
 

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