Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

[Rainforest]

It should be painfully obvious to everyone here that 14,000 pphpd is not going to happen for this extension. As we all know, internal Metrolinx communications make it abundantly clear that their planners don't think this thing will have ridership anywhere near acceptable levels for subway. It wasn't until political tampering that the 14,000 number came up. The 9,000 number is more believable.

On this point, I tend to agree with you. We do not know for sure, but 14,000 is the peak ridership of BD subway somewhere in East York, where it accumulates lots of feeder routes from the east. I would be surprised if just STC plus north-eastern Scarborough can generate so many riders by themselves.

However, 9,000 pphpd is not bad for a subway. I am sure that the existing subway just out of Kipling or Downsview stations carry less than that.

And with 15 min all day two way GO coming, I would not be at all surprised if 2031 ridership dips below 9,000.

15 min all day two way GO coming is a big IF. Everybody talks about it, but nobody has provided the design to prove that it is technically possible, given the downtown space limitations.

Furthermore, a train every 15 min (4 per hour) times 2,000 riders per train, provides a capacity of 8,000 pphpd. Some of that will be consumed by Markham, some by north-western Scarborough (too far for the McCowan subway), and some by southern Scarborough (south of Eglinton and irrelevant for the McCowan subway). Some will be consumed by the increased transit modal share (people who previously did not use transit at all), and some by new residents. As a result, the GO line may slice no more than 1,000 - 1,500 pphpd from the McCowan subway's ridership.

It should also be obvious to everyone here that this project will not be within the $3.05 Billion budget. Metrolinx is warning of cost overruns of 50%.

As preliminary work has continued on this line we've already seen the cost spike significantly.

Anyways when the EA is completed we'll begin to see the extent of the overruns. It's then that I'm expecting Council to swiftly kill the extension.

If the spike is really dramatic, they might kill the project. But if the spike is moderate, they are more likely to shorten the subway to STC (which will require adjustments to the Sheppard LRT routing).

 

[Rainforest]

And to be honest, why Finch goes below ground is beyond me. Atleast to Yonge there is enough room on the road for an LRT.

Have you been there? For a short distance between Beechcroft and Yonge, Finch gets rather tight.

We could have just built all of eglinton above ground. Chicago is doing that.

That would replace buses hopelessly stuck in traffic with streetcars hopelessly stuck in traffic. If there is no improvement, why bother building anything at all?

As designed, underground LRT on Eglinton, will be a tremendous improvement for the locals.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Have you been there? For a short distance between Beechcroft and Yonge, Finch gets rather tight.

That's a short distance. And if we just focus on finch west, there is no reason for the LRT to go undergound at Keele.

That would replace buses hopelessly stuck in traffic with streetcars hopelessly stuck in traffic. If there is no improvement, why bother building anything at all?

As designed, underground LRT on Eglinton, will be a tremendous improvement for the locals.

I should have said elevated. We could have elevated the entire thing.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

If the spike is really dramatic, they might kill the project. But if the spike is moderate, they are more likely to shorten the subway to STC (which will require adjustments to the Sheppard LRT routing).

That's not happening. We either go back to the SRT at that point or the Sheppard East subway gets built. The entire point of the Sheppard LRT was it is supposed to serve all of Scarborough, not just west of McCowan.

 

[innsertnamehere]

Trains depart finch with 10,000 pphd.

14,000 pphd today on the bloor line is probably reached around Victoria park, if not sooner. Most B-D line ridership comes from before Main station and jane station in the west, the inner city stations are generally underused as they tend to have crappy bus connections.

10,000 pphd on the spadina line probably isn't reached until around st. Clair west.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Miller is why Ford is mayor. Had he been mayor right now Ford would have been gone from council in 2011 after the first tapes came out, and none of the last four years happen.

Seriously? That's like blaming the Holocaust on the WW1 Allies.

Yes, I'm invoking Godwin's Law. No need to point it out.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Technically, the underground section of Sheppard LRT does not preclude the subway extension. The LRT tunnel is slightly wider than the subway tunnel, and can be reused for subway extension.

Of course, any possibility of such extension will be pushed into a very remote future due to fiscal reasons: once the corridor has LRT, it will be easier to justify investments in other corridors rather than redoing Sheppard. But such consideration holds regardless of whether the LRT has an underground terminal or stays on surface all the way.

Once SELRT is opened, the probability of the subway being converted from HRT to LRT technology is far higher than the HRT subway ever being extended.

 

[M II A II R II K]

Especially when the T1s expire.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

On this point, I tend to agree with you. We do not know for sure, but 14,000 is the peak ridership of BD subway somewhere in East York, where it accumulates lots of feeder routes from the east. I would be surprised if just STC plus north-eastern Scarborough can generate so many riders by themselves.

However, 9,000 pphpd is not bad for a subway. I am sure that the existing subway just out of Kipling or Downsview stations carry less than that.

Yes, I don't think anyone thinks 9,000 pphpd is that bad for a subway. But the reason that I (and apparently Metrolinx) have trouble recommending a subway that will move only 9,000 for this corridor is because there are significantly cheaper alternatives available that can do the job fine..

Furthermore, a train every 15 min (4 per hour) times 2,000 riders per train, provides a capacity of 8,000 pphpd. Some of that will be consumed by Markham, some by north-western Scarborough (too far for the McCowan subway), and some by southern Scarborough (south of Eglinton and irrelevant for the McCowan subway). Some will be consumed by the increased transit modal share (people who previously did not use transit at all), and some by new residents. As a result, the GO line may slice no more than 1,000 - 1,500 pphpd from the McCowan subway's ridership.

When we're dealing with a line with ridership that is likely in the low 9,000's, a drop of 1000 to 1500 pphpd is pretty damn significant.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

If the spike is really dramatic, they might kill the project. But if the spike is moderate, they are more likely to shorten the subway to STC (which will require adjustments to the Sheppard LRT routing).

You act as if the spike isn't already dramatic.

The original budget (the one Council agreed to) for the extension was $3 Billion. Toronto's budgeted contribution to that $3 Billion is $0.6 Billion. The latest report from the Toronto Transit Commission has the price of this extension at $3.6 Billion. In other words, the extension is now $0.6 Billion over budget.

Any cost overrun for this line is the responsibility of the City of Toronto. That means that as of right now, if Toronto wants thing thing built, the City will need to pay the $0.6 Billion original contribution + the $0.6 Billion over budget. That is a contribution of $1.2 Billion in total; approximately twice the amount Toronto budgeted for the project!!!

And the horrible thing is that the EA hasn't even been completed yet. When it is done, it could push the price up even further!

I really have a hard time seeing this thing getting built. Toronto is already 100% over budget for it's contribution.

Maybe it will terminate at STC, but that is a really poor solution that I can't see Council backing. This needs to go to Sheppard.

The smart thing to do would be to revert to LRT ASAP. That way we can reduce the sunk costs.

 

[M II A II R II K]

And it also depends on where most of these Scarborough riders are going. Locally along the Scarborough stretch? Downtown to to have to sit through the Danforth and send more people to that Bloor/Yonge bottleneck perhaps.

At least when north Yonge Street started off with low ridership it was a direct expresslike route to the downtown core.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

You act as if the spike isn't already dramatic.

The original budget (the one Council agreed to) for the extension was $3 Billion. Toronto's budgeted contribution to that $3 Billion is $0.6 Billion. The latest report from the Toronto Transit Commission has the price of this extension at $3.6 Billion. In other words, the extension is now $0.6 Billion over budget.

Any cost overrun for this line is the responsibility of the City of Toronto. That means that as of right now, if Toronto wants thing thing built, the City will need to pay the $0.6 Billion original contribution + the $0.6 Billion over budget. That is a contribution of $1.2 Billion in total; approximately twice the amount Toronto budgeted for the project!!!

And the horrible thing is that the EA hasn't even been completed yet. When it is done, it could push the price up even further!

I really have a hard time seeing this thing getting built. Toronto is already 100% over budget for it's contribution.

Maybe it will terminate at STC, but that is a really poor solution that I can't see Council backing. This needs to go to Sheppard.

The smart thing to do would be to revert to LRT ASAP. That way we can reduce the sunk costs.

Edit: The $3.6 Billion may be in 2014 dollars and the $3 Billion originally budgeted may be in 2010 dollars. So $250 Million of the $600 Million over budget may be due to inflation. I'm honestly not sure. Regardless, that still means we're $400 - $450 Million over budget.

Maybe someone can tell us what "escalated" means in this TTC document and whether or not the $3 Billion was in $2010 or something else.

 

[denfromoakvillemilton]

Seriously? That's like blaming the Holocaust on the WW1 Allies.

Yes, I'm invoking Godwin's Law. No need to point it out.

Yes you are and for the record Miller would have won the 2010 campaign.

You act as if the spike isn't already dramatic.

The original budget (the one Council agreed to) for the extension was $3 Billion. Toronto's budgeted contribution to that $3 Billion is $0.6 Billion. The latest report from the Toronto Transit Commission has the price of this extension at $3.6 Billion. In other words, the extension is now $0.6 Billion over budget.

Any cost overrun for this line is the responsibility of the City of Toronto. That means that as of right now, if Toronto wants thing thing built, the City will need to pay the $0.6 Billion original contribution + the $0.6 Billion over budget. That is a contribution of $1.2 Billion in total; approximately twice the amount Toronto budgeted for the project!!!

And the horrible thing is that the EA hasn't even been completed yet. When it is done, it could push the price up even further!

I really have a hard time seeing this thing getting built. Toronto is already 100% over budget for it's contribution.

Maybe it will terminate at STC, but that is a really poor solution that I can't see Council backing. This needs to go to Sheppard.

The smart thing to do would be to revert to LRT ASAP. That way we can reduce the sunk costs.

And it also depends on where most of these Scarborough riders are going. Locally along the Scarborough stretch? Downtown to to have to sit through the Danforth and send more people to that Bloor/Yonge bottleneck perhaps.

At least when north Yonge Street started off with low ridership it was a direct expresslike route to the downtown core.

Why sheppard? Is there any other reason then the LRT for it to go there? Either City council eats this or go back to the SRT or go the STC and build the Sheppard East subway ( you know well Tiger there will be calls for that if the subway is shortened.) alone, Kennedy to STC is not justifiable. mark, most people in Scarborough work in Scarborough or Downtown.

 

[TheTigerMaster]

Yes you are and for the record Miller would have won the 2010 campaign.

I know. He had more than decent chances. I hate the guy for not running for reelection. I feel abandoned.

 

[Rainforest]

Maybe it will terminate at STC, but that is a really poor solution that I can't see Council backing. This needs to go to Sheppard.

Really, this depends on the Sheppard solution. If the LRT must stay on Sheppard, then the McCowan subway needs to go all the way up to Sheppard. That option has the benefit of simplifying the branches of Sheppard LRT; only one or two branches will be needed (one to the Zoo and perhaps one to Malvern Centre).

On the other hand, it is possible to terminate the subway at STC and route the Sheppard LRT in such a way that all or some branches go via STC. The drawback of this option is that multiple branches of Sheppard LRT will be harder to manage, and some riders will have to wait longer for the vehicle that takes them where they want to go. But if the city council feels some kind of subway to Scarborough needs to be built, and at the same time can't afford to go to Sheppard, they might accept this option.