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Danforth Line 2 Scarborough Subway Extension

As in, if we extend it by 10km it will automatically have 150k riders and 3x the peak volume.

You are a bit sarcastic here, but actually it wouldn't be very surprising if the ridership of a longer line, that connects to STC in the east and Sheppard West in the west, reached 150k. The Sheppard West connection would essentially extend the rapid transit corridor to York U and the north-west of the city, even if the Sheppard trains weren't continuing to the TYSSE stations.

Of course, we cannot expect exact proportionality, just a certain correlation between the length of line and its ridership. A longer line is useful to a greater number of riders, as the time saving from a longer fast trip offsets the time lost while taking a surface route to subway. The exact ridership for the extended line is not easy to predict though.

Shitting on Sheppard is apt for no other reason than it's grossly overbuilt. Doesn't mean there isn't solid ridership, that rapid transit isn't/wasn't warranted, or that stations like Bessarion shouldn't exist. Ridership is good, rt is wise, and locales like Bessarion need stations. The problem is that it's built for 6-car and +30k pphpd. That was not and is never needed on the corridor, not even close. It was the nuclear option and the line has never been completed because of its largess. You cite Expo, Canada, and Millennium, but those are prime examples of what could've been built. Subways, but scaled down appropriately and thus able see that vision of a line from Downsview to SC realized.

Agreed that it was a mistake to overbuild the Sheppard subway. It might be possible to correct that mistake, by switching to another technology that allows for cheaper extensions, while retaining the subway speed. Maybe, same technology as planned for the Ontario Line.

If the new cars adhere to a similar design model (high-floor, 3-rd rail) but are a bit narrower and a bit lower, then converting the existing 5.5 km section shouldn't be too expensive.

I'm not suggesting a Sheppard extension in the next few years; both the Province and the City will have their hands full with the 4 recently announced projects. But at some future point, perhaps in the next cycle of transit expansion, such a conversion should be looked at.
 
And how much did the Provincial and Federal subsidies (operational) increase by?

The subsidy is mostly Municipal. The provincial subsidy is a portion of Gas tax. There is no Federal subsidy for TTC operations; the Feds only contribute to some Capital projects.
 
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188242
 
You are a bit sarcastic here, but actually it wouldn't be very surprising if the ridership of a longer line, that connects to STC in the east and Sheppard West in the west, reached 150k. The Sheppard West connection would essentially extend the rapid transit corridor to York U and the north-west of the city, even if the Sheppard trains weren't continuing to the TYSSE stations.

Of course, we cannot expect exact proportionality, just a certain correlation between the length of line and its ridership. A longer line is useful to a greater number of riders, as the time saving from a longer fast trip offsets the time lost while taking a surface route to subway. The exact ridership for the extended line is not easy to predict though.

Hm, possibly. It is a sizable catchment, which includes the busiest highway in the world.

Agreed that it was a mistake to overbuild the Sheppard subway. It might be possible to correct that mistake, by switching to another technology that allows for cheaper extensions, while retaining the subway speed. Maybe, same technology as planned for the Ontario Line.

If the new cars adhere to a similar design model (high-floor, 3-rd rail) but are a bit narrower and a bit lower, then converting the existing 5.5 km section shouldn't be too expensive.

Same floor height, probably same gauge, minor costs would be moving the third rail in a bit and extending the platforms out a few cm. Big bonus would be salvaging Line 3 ROW and three stations. Build a new station at Kennedy Commons area, bisect through the Centre, new station at Bellamy/Progress, and terminate at Centennial. Hits the right notes and would be a gamechanger. If the PCs are serious about building things (which I highly doubt because even the previous Libs had trouble completing more rudimentary promises), I think such a thing would be very much considered. And they have Schabas on board who proposed this very concept.
 
Same floor height, probably same gauge, minor costs would be moving the third rail in a bit and extending the platforms out a few cm. Big bonus would be salvaging Line 3 ROW and three stations. Build a new station at Kennedy Commons area, bisect through the Centre, new station at Bellamy/Progress, and terminate at Centennial. Hits the right notes and would be a gamechanger.

I certainly like the idea of reusing the northern half of SRT corridor for the Sheppard transit. That should both reduce the cost and serve some good nodes.

If the PCs are serious about building things (which I highly doubt because even the previous Libs had trouble completing more rudimentary promises), I think such a thing would be very much considered. And they have Schabas on board who proposed this very concept.

The fiscal capacity is stretched already, and even the presence of Schabas will not change that. They had to appear giving something to every part of the city, thus they chose one project in the south, north, east, and west (OL, YN, SSE, Eglinton West). Kind of makes sense for the optics, but I really can't imagine them squeezing in the Sheppard transit as well. Maybe, in 10 years ..
 
50k for 5.5km definitely is decent. But I feel you're implying that potential ridership is proportionate to length. As in, if we extend it by 10km it will automatically have 150k riders and 3x the peak volume.

Shitting on Sheppard is apt for no other reason than it's grossly overbuilt. Doesn't mean there isn't solid ridership, that rapid transit isn't/wasn't warranted, or that stations like Bessarion shouldn't exist. Ridership is good, rt is wise, and locales like Bessarion need stations. The problem is that it's built for 6-car and +30k pphpd. That was not and is never needed on the corridor, not even close. It was the nuclear option and the line has never been completed because of its largess. You cite Expo, Canada, and Millennium, but those are prime examples of what could've been built. Subways, but scaled down appropriately and thus able see that vision of a line from Downsview to SC realized.

And if you do argue that building for 6-car and ~34,000 peak direction riders was the right move, definitely remind the people riding this "temporary" and nonexistent BRT, making the transfers, or sitting in traffic on the 401. Because they've waited a long time for an extension and they'll be waiting a lot longer. Since the concept of a northern crosstown goes back to the 60s, and 2030 is at best when we can finish the line, the wait is what 60yrs?
You raise an excellent point, and I don't disagree that aspects of the line were quite overbuilt. Nevertheless, there is still the fact that it was never completed to what the line was originally envisioned to be. For that, it's hard to fully know whether or not the line should have justified 6 car platforms given the time and the knowledge then. The line was built on the promise that it would be built as a 15 km line (instead of a 5 km stub) with development ensuing all around Sheppard. That was happening at the time, but the density was quite low regardless.

We as transportation engineers can't really predict what ridership patterns will be in the distant future, there are just far too many variables, many of which can't actually be quantified or predicted. One thing to consider with Sheppard is that if it was originally built as envisioned, the section between the STC and SY may see 150K PPD (so 75K PPD). Given that the line really only serves peak passengers and that there are no transfer points (ie no DRL, and no RER), those 75K passengers (round down to 50K passengers per direction since reverse and off peak commutes do exist) would only be traveling in the one direction over the 3 hr peak period, or an average of 17K passengers per hour in the peak direction. This already exceeds the capacity of light rail and quickly approaches the capacity of light metro (skytrain). We also have to remember that travel patterns aren't averages. The number of people traveling down a line during a peak period is bell curved, so while 17K is a fair average, the true number of people traveling at a time may be 13K passengers during the first hour, 26k passengers during the second hour, and 11K passengers during the final hour. It has the potential to peak at quite a high value. Obviously this is a gross oversimplification, but the point still remains that it made sense for the to plan for the future given what they knew at the time. Knowing what we know now, obviously it was grossly overstated, but the planners of the turn of the century had no idea the line would never be completed, that the developments would take 20 years to come, that zoning laws wouldn't change to reflect the existence of a subway, that additional bus routes wouldn't be incorporated into the line to serve the surrounding communities, or that commuters up in north York wouldn't be willing to give up their cars as easily.

The Yonge line wasn't built to fill the large 6 car trains we have today, in fact, it was built with smaller platforms which had to be expanded as time went on. It's harder to do that in a deep bore subway than it is on a trenched line. The line also did not nearly carry peak loads of 30K (or probably even 15K) passengers per hour per direction, it's taken over 60 years to get that line to 30+K PPD, so capacity was considered for the long term only. The bloor line is a bit different but for other reasons. The point still stands that the planners of the day could not have anticipated the changes that were happening to society and transit planning. With the knowledge we have to day, sure, we can criticize the scope of the project, but we should also consider the reasons for their size.

An interesting comparison to the Sheppard line will be the Eglinton crosstown line. Platforms there are being built at 90 meters, while Sheppards platforms have the potential to reach 140 meters. The catch is that the spacing of Sheppard's stations are a bit greater than those on the crosstown, so additional stations are built there in place of larger platforms. Whether one or the other is good or not (given Bessarion's performance, crosstown tech or skytrain with Eglinton stop spacing may have been the better choice overall) can be debated. I believe the crosstown is overall more expensive than a typical subway line per km because of the larger tunnel diameters and greater number of stations.
 
You raise an excellent point, and I don't disagree that aspects of the line were quite overbuilt. Nevertheless, there is still the fact that it was never completed to what the line was originally envisioned to be. For that, it's hard to fully know whether or not the line should have justified 6 car platforms given the time and the knowledge then. The line was built on the promise that it would be built as a 15 km line (instead of a 5 km stub) with development ensuing all around Sheppard. That was happening at the time, but the density was quite low regardless.

We as transportation engineers can't really predict what ridership patterns will be in the distant future, there are just far too many variables, many of which can't actually be quantified or predicted. One thing to consider with Sheppard is that if it was originally built as envisioned, the section between the STC and SY may see 150K PPD (so 75K PPD). Given that the line really only serves peak passengers and that there are no transfer points (ie no DRL, and no RER), those 75K passengers (round down to 50K passengers per direction since reverse and off peak commutes do exist) would only be traveling in the one direction over the 3 hr peak period, or an average of 17K passengers per hour in the peak direction. This already exceeds the capacity of light rail and quickly approaches the capacity of light metro (skytrain). We also have to remember that travel patterns aren't averages. The number of people traveling down a line during a peak period is bell curved, so while 17K is a fair average, the true number of people traveling at a time may be 13K passengers during the first hour, 26k passengers during the second hour, and 11K passengers during the final hour. It has the potential to peak at quite a high value. Obviously this is a gross oversimplification, but the point still remains that it made sense for the to plan for the future given what they knew at the time. Knowing what we know now, obviously it was grossly overstated, but the planners of the turn of the century had no idea the line would never be completed, that the developments would take 20 years to come, that zoning laws wouldn't change to reflect the existence of a subway, that additional bus routes wouldn't be incorporated into the line to serve the surrounding communities, or that commuters up in north York wouldn't be willing to give up their cars as easily.

The Yonge line wasn't built to fill the large 6 car trains we have today, in fact, it was built with smaller platforms which had to be expanded as time went on. It's harder to do that in a deep bore subway than it is on a trenched line. The line also did not nearly carry peak loads of 30K (or probably even 15K) passengers per hour per direction, it's taken over 60 years to get that line to 30+K PPD, so capacity was considered for the long term only. The bloor line is a bit different but for other reasons. The point still stands that the planners of the day could not have anticipated the changes that were happening to society and transit planning. With the knowledge we have to day, sure, we can criticize the scope of the project, but we should also consider the reasons for their size.

An interesting comparison to the Sheppard line will be the Eglinton crosstown line. Platforms there are being built at 90 meters, while Sheppards platforms have the potential to reach 140 meters. The catch is that the spacing of Sheppard's stations are a bit greater than those on the crosstown, so additional stations are built there in place of larger platforms. Whether one or the other is good or not (given Bessarion's performance, crosstown tech or skytrain with Eglinton stop spacing may have been the better choice overall) can be debated. I believe the crosstown is overall more expensive than a typical subway line per km because of the larger tunnel diameters and greater number of stations.


Being overbuilt is really not a major concern nor did it cost us all that much more. Not continuing the line to its original destination decades ago has. I care more about under building or cutting corners and when i see a piece of infrastructure that as the ability to expand in the future I can only applaud those who planned the line.
 
Being overbuilt is really not a major concern nor did it cost us all that much more. Not continuing the line to its original destination decades ago has. I care more about under building or cutting corners and when i see a piece of infrastructure that as the ability to expand in the future I can only applaud those who planned the line.
Unfortunately you can thank both the Cities need to please everyone and an unfriendly Provincial Government for the state of the Sheppard Line. Maybe the Sheppard Line would have been built to completion if it didn't have to compete with the Eglinton West line for resources. Metro didn't have the funds to build both completely so we instead truncated both as a means to appease all parts of the City. The City was litterally going to build 2 half-built subway lines because we just couldn't make the tough decisions. The only other option would have been to cancel one and re-driect its resources to the other. I don't think Etobicoke and York would have taken to kindly to the EW Line being killed in favor of North York and Scarborough's Sheppard Line. All that said whose to say a Sheppard Only plan would have survived the Harris years. The fact is Metro only had enough money to build 1 Subway line and the Province wasn't exactly banging down the door to help, yet we convinced ourselves we can start now and finish later instead of telling certain parts of the City they would need to wait there turn. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

Comparatively using hindsight the Sheppard line was the far better investment compared to the EW line which had no support from experts and was nothing more then a "We deserve a Subway" scheme by York and Etobicoke. Eglinton was much better served by LRT which we are coincidentally building. While the Sheppard Line wasn't the best thing either it had far more value then Eglinton. In a perfect world we would have built neither and instead built the DRL but the suburbs and TTC made sure that idea died .... to there own detriment.
 
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Unfortunately you can thank both the Cities need to please everyone and an unfriendly Provincial Government for the state of the Sheppard Line. Maybe the Sheppard Line would have been built to completion if it didn't have to compete with the Eglinton West line for resources. Metro didn't have the funds to build both completely so we instead truncated both as a means to appease all parts of the City. The City was litterally going to build 2 half-built subway lines because we just couldn't make the tough decisions. The only other option would have been to cancel one and re-driect its resources to the other. I don't think Etobicoke and York would have taken to kindly to the EW Line being killed in favor of North York and Scarborough's Sheppard Line. All that said whose to say a Sheppard Only plan would have survived the Harris years. The fact is Metro only had enough money to build 1 Subway line and the Province wasn't exactly banging down the door to help, yet we convinced ourselves we can start now and finish later instead of telling certain parts of the City they would need to wait there turn. Sounds familiar doesn't it?

Comparatively using hindsight the Sheppard line was the far better investment compared to the EW line which had no support from experts and was nothing more then a "We deserve a Subway" scheme by York and Etobicoke. Eglinton was much better served by LRT which we are coincidentally building. While the Sheppard Line wasn't the best thing either it had far more value then Eglinton. In a perfect world we would have built neither and instead built the DRL but the suburbs and TTC made sure that idea died .... to there own detriment.

Fact is we have never had proper funding plan to grow transit in a sustainable approach. Therefore many looked for ways to cut corners, debated plans and delayed to the point inflation became a huge enemy for all lines that will now cost billions more then if built decades ago in any form. No corner cutting would have changed that. And to use limited funds as an excuse is distracting from the bigger issue where pet project are piece mealed based on low balled estimates.

The rest is sour grapes. "Experts" became such a loose term in this Citys transit planning to promote an ideology of poorly designed/integrated LRT as something greater than it is. The real experts only design based on the criteria set forth and this criteria has been flawed integrating into current vehicle traffic and providing optimal speed for the commuters. Eglinton West being grade separated will be better for all commuters and its too bad we didn't have the same political will on the eastern portion of the Crosstown.

As long as EW gets built it will be better and the increased cost is really negligible in the overall long term future. We still need a better funding plan, based on inflation and well integrated, grade separated trunk lines and their local feeders from the Province and Feds. We are finally starting to see movement and stronger voices calling for it from from the City and Province. The recent geographical sour grapes style of politics that went on in the City with a few politicians looking to cut corners in other areas plans was not helpful and thankfully will no longer be an issue going forward.
 
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An interesting comparison to the Sheppard line will be the Eglinton crosstown line. Platforms there are being built at 90 meters, while Sheppards platforms have the potential to reach 140 meters. The catch is that the spacing of Sheppard's stations are a bit greater than those on the crosstown, so additional stations are built there in place of larger platforms. Whether one or the other is good or not (given Bessarion's performance, crosstown tech or skytrain with Eglinton stop spacing may have been the better choice overall) can be debated.

Other things equal, a long Sheppard line would likely outperform Eglinton line of the same length. Eglinton competes with the BD subway, while the Sheppard line would get lots of transfer riders from the north who have no other rapid transit line anywhere near them.

That said, I have no problem with Eglinton being built first, and Sheppard staying a stub for a while. Mixed-traffic buses running on the central sections of Eglinton were/are extremely unreliable and slow, because of the limited road space. Sheppard buses are somewhat more usable. Thus, Eglinton LRT probably delivers a greater benefit for the local riders than a Sheppard extension would.

I believe the crosstown is overall more expensive than a typical subway line per km because of the larger tunnel diameters and greater number of stations.

Yes, the tunneled portion is somewhat more expensive than a subway of the same length. The whole concept relies on saving in the outer portions that can run on surface and / or elevated, and hence can be cheaper than a subway.
 
Other things equal, a long Sheppard line would likely outperform Eglinton line of the same length. Eglinton competes with the BD subway, while the Sheppard line would get lots of transfer riders from the north who have no other rapid transit line anywhere near them.

That's seems more of a problem than a solution. A busy Sheppard and not-so-busy Eglinton just means the DRL price went up to achieve the same goal of reducing ridership of Yonge below critical levels.
 
That's seems more of a problem than a solution. A busy Sheppard and not-so-busy Eglinton just means the DRL price went up to achieve the same goal of reducing ridership of Yonge below critical levels.

While a longer Relief Line would be more effective, a Relief Line that just reaches Eglinton will still make a difference (assuming it actually gets built).

Furthermore, a Phase 2 extension north of Eglinton should be both cheaper per km and easier to justify politically. Getting the Phase 1 segment done is the most challenging task.
 
There is so much potential to develop this area around Brimley but as a replacement for the Lawrence station would be unfortunate once again. While the Lawrence stop lacks the direct development potential it serves as a very important Central feeder while Eglinton already has a fairly Central feeder connection.

But politically it fits. Tory gets his Smarttrack and Ford gets his 3 stop subway with greater private potential
 
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If they are going to cut Lawrence Station in favor of Brimley then they can stop right now. An SSE without a stop at Lawrence is a waste of time and money. Brimley doesn't need a stop if the EELRT is going to pass through the area, Lawrence on the other hand has no alternative plan for rapid transit. If we can only afford 1 then Lawrence is far more important a stop then Brimley. As for building both, its funny this Provincial government bitches to high heaven about spending yet they seem to have no restraint inflating this projects costs. We can design the line so that a stop at Brimley can be infilled in the future, however a stop at Lawrence has far more priority then Brimley.
 

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