Archivist
Senior Member
Your assumption (and Pearson's) is that travel demand will increase more or less as it always has. My assumption is quite different - I see demand for air travel decreasing for the next few years, as a result of the recession that we are in, and indeed this is happening.
Where you might assume recovery in a while, I assume that as soon as recovery begins, we will have many bumpy years as we discover that readily available sources of oil are depleting rapidly, and energy prices increase dramatically. Though I give little credibility to this agency (because it is overly conservative) the International Energy Agency in its most recent report, dramatically altered its outlook for oil production, and when pressed, foresaw peak oil occurring around 2020 (though they did not, and would not, print this in their report). All previous reports of the IEA actually estimated oil production simply by estimating oil demand and assuming that production would be equal. They were quite proud this year that they did actual "research" on production, and therefore dramatically lowered their production estimates, and dramatically increased the rate of depletion of existing sources. In my view, they are still out to lunch, but it is interesting to see what this conservative oil predictor coming around to a position that only a few years ago would have been considered loony.
When, not if, energy becomes dramatically more expensive, air travel will be the first to go. My feeling is that if we were to make a decision to start an airport in Pickering now, this very moment, it would be about 2115 or so before it really came on board, which I believe will be too late to be of any use at all. I don't imagine that this would convince you, and I have to admit I have no interest in really trying, but I would be virulently opposed to a single cent spent on a new airport in Pickering, even a small one.
Where you might assume recovery in a while, I assume that as soon as recovery begins, we will have many bumpy years as we discover that readily available sources of oil are depleting rapidly, and energy prices increase dramatically. Though I give little credibility to this agency (because it is overly conservative) the International Energy Agency in its most recent report, dramatically altered its outlook for oil production, and when pressed, foresaw peak oil occurring around 2020 (though they did not, and would not, print this in their report). All previous reports of the IEA actually estimated oil production simply by estimating oil demand and assuming that production would be equal. They were quite proud this year that they did actual "research" on production, and therefore dramatically lowered their production estimates, and dramatically increased the rate of depletion of existing sources. In my view, they are still out to lunch, but it is interesting to see what this conservative oil predictor coming around to a position that only a few years ago would have been considered loony.
When, not if, energy becomes dramatically more expensive, air travel will be the first to go. My feeling is that if we were to make a decision to start an airport in Pickering now, this very moment, it would be about 2115 or so before it really came on board, which I believe will be too late to be of any use at all. I don't imagine that this would convince you, and I have to admit I have no interest in really trying, but I would be virulently opposed to a single cent spent on a new airport in Pickering, even a small one.