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Canada's next Prime Minister?

Who would win in the Federal Elections?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
Actually, it is very observant.

You can make statements about how Canada is still socially progressive even with Harper, but that social progressiveness comes from its people, not from Harper. So the point still stands: Harper doesn't represent Canada. The reason things haven't "fallen through the ground" is because Harper only has a minority government, not a majority, and he couldn't pass his anti-gay agenda once in office because the people wouldn't have it. The issue was settled... And as for other issues, Canada did have its first quarterly deficit this year, and its facing another one upcoming if not careful. The bottom certainly hasn't fallen out, but there are cracks beginning to appear in the floor.

Actually, south of the border you can equally say George W. Bush doesn't represent America. He only has the worst approval rating ever in recorded history. He wasn't elected in 2000 at all, and he won by 1% in 2004 after he used a national tragedy in 9/11 to scare people to vote for him.
 
Hydrogen, on that point re-read what I wrote: that there is funding for building new fancy buildings such as the ROM, the AGO etc (that politicians can take credit for) but there is no money for infrastructure within the institutions!

Let me point out that the huge spending on museum expansion in Ottawa under the Liberals left out long-term operational funding.
 
You can make statements about how Canada is still socially progressive even with Harper, but that social progressiveness comes from its people, not from Harper. So the point still stands: Harper doesn't represent Canada. The reason things haven't "fallen through the ground" is because Harper only has a minority government, not a majority, and he couldn't pass his anti-gay agenda once in office because the people wouldn't have it. The issue was settled... And as for other issues, Canada did have its first quarterly deficit this year, and its facing another one upcoming if not careful. The bottom certainly hasn't fallen out, but there are cracks beginning to appear in the floor.

Do you actually assume that there are no socially conservative people in this country? Let me assure you that there are millions of socially conservative people in Canada - much more socially conservative than Stephen Harper. Do you get to deny all of them their status as Canadians because you disagree with them, or are you just trying to introduce the equal of that acidic Anti-American accusation here?

As for what you refer to as an anti-gay agenda, the issue was same-sex marriage. Like many politicians, Harper used the issue to satisfy the more right-wing element in his party, lost the vote and was done with the issue. Regardless, I have my doubts that millions of Canadians would have gone to the streets to support gay marriage - particularly when there was an idea of a same-sex union getting equal play at the time, a term that did not have the word marriage included in it. What Harper realized was that any defeat of an existing law would have resulted in a trip to the Supreme Court, where the government would have lost.

As for the issue of deficits, take a look at the present global economy. One can hardly pin that situation and its potential effect on the Canadian balance sheet all on Harper. The reality is that we probably will see deficits, and we may need deficits in order to stimulate the economy. I'd like to see how the Liberals would pay for all their promises without a deficit in these times, particularly with their supposedly revenue-neutral green-washed carbon tax shell game in effect.
 
Conservatives 125
Liberal Party 94
N.D.P. 36
Bloc Québécois 51
Other 2



Liberals will win and lose a few in Ontario but will lose a few in BC and pick up some in Quebec and Maratimes.

Tories will net win seats in Ontario but lose up to 4 seats in Quebec and three in Newfoundland. However they should pick up seats out in BC and in places like Oakville and in Belinda Stronach's area.

NDP should do very well in Northern Ontario and BC.

BLOC will dominate everything outside of Montreal and Quebec city.
 
I'm predicting a surprise Liberal minority government with a strong NDP showing as well.
 
The Star put it best.

Star's choice: Dion, Liberals


Oct 11, 2008 04:30 AM

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has run a government that has put partisanship and ideology ahead of the public interest.

In fiscal policy, Harper has pursued a neo-conservative strategy to cut the GST – not, as economists had recommended, income taxes – in order to reduce dramatically the role of government. He inherited a $12 billion surplus from the previous Liberal government (under Paul Martin) and has squandered almost all of it. His moves have left the government with little room to manoeuvre in the current crisis.

In foreign affairs, Harper has diminished Canada's reputation as an independent voice and aligned his government with George Bush's White House on a range of issues, from the Middle East to the "war on terror." He has also worsened relations with China, the world's biggest emerging economy, and fallen behind other Western countries in developing ties with India, the second biggest.

Taking a cue from the Ontario Conservative government under Mike Harris, Harper has pursued policies of deregulation. He has either allowed sectors to be self-regulating (food, for example), or he has fired the regulator (Linda Keen at the nuclear safety commission).

On the environment, Harper scrapped the Kyoto accord and came up with a new plan that allows greenhouse gas emissions to continue to grow, especially in his home province of Alberta.

In federal-provincial relations, he has spent 33 months in power without once holding a conference of first ministers. And he has managed the neat trick of alienating the governments of both Quebec and Ontario. Even Pierre Trudeau didn't do that. Furthermore, his finance minister, Jim Flaherty, has unapologetically dissed Ontario as the "last place" to invest in Canada.

On the cities front, there have been some grudging moves by Harper's government to help municipalities cope with the enormous infrastructure challenges they face. But the federal Conservative attitude toward cities was best summed up by the aforementioned finance minister, who said dismissively that Ottawa is not in the business of "fixing potholes."

On the aboriginal file, while Harper extended a meaningful apology over residential schools, he also ripped up the Kelowna accord, thereby dealing a severe blow to relations with native communities.

And having castigated the Liberals for being anti-democratic when he was in opposition, Harper ran a government that was secretive and controlling to an astonishing degree. Independent voices in the Conservative caucus were expelled, ministers prohibited from saying anything much, and the media frozen out (until the election neared).

To top it all off, in calling this election Harper broke his own law fixing the election date for 2009.

Harper did all that with a minority. If he got a majority, there are very real concerns that he would go much further and pave the way for two-tier medicare, pursue more military adventures with the Americans, scrap the gun registry, and introduce more Bush-like tax cuts that would hamper any future government's ability to govern.

Harper's campaign has been no less mean-spirited than his government. It has been dominated by attack ads that ridicule his chief rival (Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion) and misrepresent the key plank in his platform (the "Green Shift"). The Conservatives have also pursued wedge issues such as youth crime and funding cuts for the arts.

Latterly, during the market meltdown, with Canadians fearful for their jobs and their savings, Harper sounded more like a broker than a prime minister with his message that "some good buying opportunities are opening up." And when Dion, who has a hearing problem, stumbled in a television interview because he had trouble comprehending a question, Harper absurdly seized on this as proof that the Liberals "really don't know what they would do on the economy."

For all these reasons, Harper and the Conservatives do not deserve to be re-elected on Tuesday.

We prefer Dion and the Liberals.

Dion, to be sure, has his faults. His communications skills are wanting, his approach can be somewhat academic, and he did not do his job as leader to make sure his party was fully prepared for this election. Mid-campaign, it appeared Dion might be leading the Liberals to a defeat of historic proportions.

But Dion has shown growth in this campaign and appeared finally to be connecting with voters at the end. He has also demonstrated strength of character in withstanding a withering negative ad campaign that would have brought lesser leaders to their knees.

Dion's intelligence is beyond question, as is his love of country.

As well, the Liberal team is definitely stronger, with candidates in the GTA like Bob Rae, Michael Ignatieff, Ken Dryden, Gerard Kennedy, Martha Hall Findlay, Navdeep Bains and Ruby Dhalla. Tellingly, Harper and the Conservatives failed to attract any name candidates to their local banner in this election.

Finally, the Liberal platform has much in it to like, including an emphasis on building infrastructure, fighting poverty, expanding child care and working with the provinces (especially Ontario).

The Green Shift, so ridiculed by the Conservatives, may seem complicated to the average voter. But it is actually simpler and more transparent than the Conservatives' own cap-and-trade plan, with "intensity-based" targets. The Conservative plan would also involve higher costs for consumers, but they would be hidden.

The New Democrats have an attractive leader in Jack Layton – articulate and knowledgeable. And the NDP platform is very similar to the Liberals', with one notable exception: its reliance on hiking corporate taxes by $50 billion. That could scare business away from Canada and is at odds with the direction taken by other liberal and social democratic governments.

As well, in Ontario at least, a ballot cast for the NDP would split the opposition vote and allow the Conservatives to go up the middle to victory – except, that is, in ridings the NDP already holds.

As for the Greens, their leader, Elizabeth May, has brought a feisty new presence to the campaign trail. But in this province, where the Greens are trailing well behind, a vote for them will clearly be wasted. It would be tantamount to voting for Ralph Nader, the Green candidate for U.S. president in 2000, who drew just enough votes away from Al Gore to allow the climate-change- denying Bush to win.

In summary, the re-election of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would be bad for Toronto, bad for Ontario, and bad for Canada. Stéphane Dion and the Liberals are the best alternative.
 
In summary, the re-election of Stephen Harper and the Conservatives would be bad for Toronto, bad for Ontario, and bad for Canada. Stéphane Dion and the Liberals are the best alternative.

I don't remember the Liberals being so great for Toronto all the years they were in office.
 
However the Star argues at least the Liberals know we are there and they do not hate us, or dislikes us like Harper and his cronies. Do no forget considering his benches are full of many of Harris era ministers.


However it will all depend on Ontario.


I do not think garth Turner will lose, he is super strong in his area, it will be close.

Anyways, the Liberals in the last three elections do 1-2% better then expected so this can go from being 130-95 to 120-110 very easily.


It all depends on how badly the Tories fall in Quebec.
 
Here's my prediction:

CON-120
LIB-98
BQ-52
NDP-36
GREEN-1
IND-2

I also think the chances that we'll have Stephane Dion as PM in a coalitlion with the NDP is a distinct possibility, but that will take a few months.
 
If the Conservatives come back with about as many seats as last time, there will be no coalition.

The Liberals can't risk being identified as being like the NDP.
 
You can make statements about how Canada is still socially progressive even with Harper, but that social progressiveness comes from its people, not from Harper.

Darn right I can make those statements because I'm talking fact. You on the other hand are merely wallowing in spin and conjecture, contributing absolutely nothing meaningful to the political debate in this country. In the absense of any real or credible evidence you are essentially just smearing Harper, the Conservative party and millions of fiscally conservative/socially liberal Canadians from coast to coast. You are getting down and dirty with conjecture and fear-mongering because you know that the socialist left in this nation has no plan for Canada except to increase taxation so as to secure votes through increased social funding, which you know will not fly with a middle class majority in this economy.


So the point still stands: Harper doesn't represent Canada. The reason things haven't "fallen through the ground" is because Harper only has a minority government, not a majority, and he couldn't pass his anti-gay agenda once in office because the people wouldn't have it.

The reality is that Harper represents far more of Canada than you care to admit. He represents the fiscally conservative but socially liberal/tolerant majority of people that form the backbone of this nation. That said, I understand why you and leftist extremists fear a majority. Not because you fear your own propaganda regarding Harper's agenda, but because you understand that a majority Conservative government would finally put to bed once and for all the ridiculous fear-mongering that the left has perpetrated on the Canadian public since the fall of the Mulroney Conservatives, leaving this country at the mercy of liberal corruption and extreme left ideology for far too long.

...and to be clear, putting gay marriage to a free vote in Parliament does not constitute persection or a sinister hidden agenda. Most of the world has opted for what was on the table. Canadian parliament spoke and the issue was dropped. Once again, your characterization of this is divisive and irresponsible.
 
Here's my prediction:

CON-120
LIB-98
BQ-52
NDP-36
GREEN-1
IND-2

I also think the chances that we'll have Stephane Dion as PM in a coalitlion with the NDP is a distinct possibility, but that will take a few months.

Canada needs a first time coalition government. This is the best time to test the water IMO.

Jack Layton and Stephane Dion need to forge ahead and get rid of the Harper threat he poses in the long term.
 

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