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Canada's next Prime Minister?

Who would win in the Federal Elections?


  • Total voters
    68
  • Poll closed .
The thing is the Liberals have taken the lead in Ontario with 37 to 34%...


The NDP have taken a huge increase.


The thing is a lot of those seats that were expected to go from Liberal to Tory hands in GTA, may not happen.

Tory support will not increase much and Liberal support will stay around the same but NDP support will increase.


The only place this hurts the Liberals is in downtown Toronto and NDP friendly areas.

However seats around Toronto that were held by Liberals that were expected to go Tory, will not now.

However, Newmarket, Oakville and Mississauga South should go Tory still.

However Brampton West, Ajax-Pickering and such will stay Liberal.


Actually there is a very good chance that Garth Turner will keep his seat. I heard his Maverick style is getting huge amounts of support and considering he barley won the first time as a Tory, I think he can get 2000 votes from Name brand and win.
 
NDP and Conservatives are now statistically tied in Ontario. Kiss you majority goodbye Mr. Harper.
 
CANADA VOTES
Tory platform boosts innovation funds
Oct 07, 2008 03:08 PM
Be the first to comment on this article...
Tonda MacCharles
Ottawa Bureau

Prime Minister Stephen Harper, battling to stay ahead of his rivals and an deepening economic slowdown, cast himself today as having had the smarts to act long before the stock market tumbles to cushion the government's, and voters' budgets from a bigger hit.

In an address to a joint meeting of the Canadian and Empire clubs in downtown Toronto, Harper countered the view that "unless a plan is brand new, it's not a plan."

"This crisis did not begin two weeks ago. It began in August 2007," he said, saying he was ahead of the curve.

"As the saying goes, 'it wasn't raining when Noah built the ark.' Which is why when the rain came, Noah didn't need to panic and he didn't need to switch boats," said Harper.

"We've charted a consistent course on economic and fiscal policy since the day we took office."


Harper continued to push his plan, based on "affordable" tax reductions, reduced public debt, and controlled spending as the right blueprint for tough times.

He contrasted that to the "unrealistic promises" of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion and NDP leader Jack Layton, that will levy taxes on corporations and energy producers — the sectors Harper says create jobs, wealth yet are taking the big hit in the current roller-coaster stock market.

"What the opposition proposes is to hammer any sector making money, subsidize any sector in difficulty, and throw away the solid fiscal credentials that Canada has built."

Dion and Layton, both campaigning in British Columbia, responded to the Conservative promises of more money for the manufacturing sector as "too little, too late."

Harper scorned his opponents' attempts to position themselves politically in the current crisis, casting them as reckless spenders.

"When people are looking at their stock portfolios and seeing the drop, how can you tell them your solution is to come in and hit their savings with higher taxes? It doesn't make any sense. It's a recipe for disaster, nothing more and nothing less, and that is not the direction this government is going to go."

At the same time, Harper promised more help for the troubled manufacturing sector, announcing $200 million over four years for the aerospace industry, $200 million over four years for the automotive industry, and $345 million reduction in tariffs on imported machinery and equipment to help support capital investment by ailing companies.

The new money would be slotted into existing funds such as the Strategic Aerospace and Defence Initiative, which would help companies like Pratt and Whitney in Ontario, and the Automotive Innovation Fund, which has been tapped to help Ford in Windsor.

His speech drew a polite standing ovation from the audience.

As Harper began speaking, two members of Greenpeace seated at tables in the audience separately stood up, and like the night before in Laval, unfurled banners.

"Stop global warming" they hollered out.

The man was tackled by two Mountie bodyguards as he tried to stand on his chair. A woman at another table was also hauled out.

"Vote anyone but Harper," they yelled. The man identified himself as Dave Martin of Greenpeace as he was hustled out in front of the media.

Some in the audience booed the interruption, but Harper quickly carried on with his speech.

Harper warned of dire consequences for the economy and budgets, hearkening back to when then NDP leader Bob Rae, now a senior Liberal, ran the provincial government.

"If we do not win re-election it will make Bob Rae's Ontario look like a boomtown."

It drew a smattering of laughter from the crowd.

Harper's platform, also released officially today, promises more of the same: balanced budgets, a projected surplus, and targeted investments to support economic growth.

After softening his tone on the possibility of ever running a deficit late Monday, Harper Tuesday made clear to the blue-chip audience that he intends to stay true to his small-c conservative principles.

"A Conservative government will not be raising taxes. We will not impose a carbon tax. We will not cancel planned tax reductions for business. We will keep our spending within our means. It is that simple."

The Conservative platform reveals a few new measures in addition to the new money for aerospace and automotive industries, including another $20 million a year for the forestry industry to market products abroad and to help support lumber mills' conversion from fossil fuels to biomass.

It promises new investments in internationally recognized science and technology projects in Canada, but details will not be announced until later this week.

The platform pledges a Conservative government will take additional steps to increase the number of doctors and nurses, but the details were not announced today, nor was any cost attached.

The biggest ticket item is, and remains, Harper's promise, announced early in the campaign, to cut in half the federal excise tax on diesel fuel. Initially pegged at $600 million a year, the platform says projects a phase-in, and says that by the fourth year of a mandate, it would cost $730 million annually.

An official could not say whether that actually foresees increased consumption, or merely the ramp-up of the tax cut.

There are other tax breaks already announced, but given more specific and in some cases, higher numbers in the fourth year of a government than previously indicated.

They include tax breaks for seniors ($435 million a year); for first-time homebuyers ($240 million a year); more training for older workers ($20 million a year) and graduation bonuses for younger trades apprentices ($60 million); arts and culture spending, which includes the arts credit for kids' courses and spending on francophone television production is pegged at $135 million a year.

The Conservatives also boast that as a campaign commitment they will honour commitments like the $75 million venture capital fund to be administered by the Business Development Bank of Canada and the $1.9 billion extension of funding for social housing, although earlier in the campaign, Harper insisted it was merely a government announcement that had already been in the pipeline, not a campaign commitment.

A few measures appear specifically aimed at Quebec, where Harper faces a backlash over culture cuts.

The platform commits to killing the controversial Bill C-10 that changed film and video tax credit eligibility.

"Although these proposals were approved unanimously by the House of Commons, we will take into account the serious concerns that have been expressed by film creators and investors," it says.

The Conservatives will also put into writing a Charter of Open Federalism, and re-commits to limit the federal government's ability to spend in areas of provincial jurisdiction.

However, it will introduce a bill to increase seat representation for populous provinces like Ontario, B.C. and Alberta, something Quebec opposes as a dilution of its power and influence in Ottawa.

"The plan we are offering Canadians is prudent. It is focused, it is achievable and it is credibly costed," said campaign co-chair Bernard Lord.

Dion condemned the Conservative plan as "too little, too late," a "brochure" that does nothing to safeguard the Canadian economy.

"(Stephen Harper) has proven in the last four weeks that he has no plan and he's proving again today that he has no plan with the brochure that he pretends is a plan," Dion said.

Citing the $400-million fund that Harper promised for manufacturing and the aerospace industry, Dion said the Liberal platform promises more, including tax credits for research and development

"What he's coming with is too little, too late. His retail politics is not a vision," Dion told reporters at Vancouver airport, before boarding his campaign plane for a flight to North Bay.

"Stephen Harper says 'don't switch boats in the middle of a storm'. But we have a captain who is asleep at the wheel. For the sake of Canadians what we need to change is the captain and his crew," Dion told

He accused Harper of distorting the Liberal platform with his warning that the carbon tax would upset an already fragile Canadian economy.

"We are not raising taxes at all. Everybody knows that," he said. "Stephen Harper is not saying the truth about the Liberal plan and he has no plan of his own.

He also warned that a Conservative platform pledge to have the Senate "reformed or abolished" flies in the face of the Constitution and could not be done with provincial negotiations.

"It shows no respect for the Premiers and no respect for the Constitution of Canada. He has no power to abolish the Senate alone," Dion said.

In Vancouver, Layton raised the spectre of a depression today to emphasize the economic seriousness facing Canada.

"We are not in ordinary times," Layton told reporters today after comparing the Conservative leader's denial of hard times to that of R.B. Bennett, who was Canada's Conservative prime minister during the so-called Dirty Thirties.

Layton said the Conservative platform was a desperate act late in an election.

He said Harper has suddenly discovered the Canadian economic picture is not as rosey as he has led people to believe.

"He's coming in with his ideas today, I don't know why he wouldn't share them with Canadians earlier," Layton said during a radio interview today.

"Clearly it is a desperate act at the last minute," Layton told CKNW talk show host Bill Good. Layton recalled that Harper was saying just days ago that the economy was in good shape and that there was no reason to panic.

"Now a couple of days before the election he suddenly realizes that he had better say something different than that because people are really worried about their savings, their pensions, even their mortgages their jobs," he said.

He dismissed the Conservative promise of repayable loans to the manufacturing sector as too little too late.

Later, Rae, who said he read the speech, criticized Harper as lacking in empathy. He declared Canada is already in a recession, but that the prime minister fails to acknowledge that truth, because his campaign has been "overtaken by events."

"The prime minister is presiding over a recession. Everybody knows it except for him. He seems to be living in a bizarre bubble. He said three or four weeks ago that if there was going to be a recession it would have happened by now."

"The question for Canadians is really who do you want to have on your side during these changes."

Rae said the federal government has to work more closely with the province of Ontario and not continue the "pitched battle" with Premier Dalton McGuinty.

But under questioning by reporters, Rae also appeared to suggest that the Liberals "green shift" plan may be implemented very slowly over time, citing the need to get an independent audit of the country's books.

"Obviously the timing of how things are introduced is obviously going to depend very much on the state of the economy as we find it," he said. "But the direction which we've set out — to cut income taxes, to provide tax relief for ordinary families and to start to put a price on carbon, that is the right direction for Canada, and that is a direction that transcends events."

He refused to say whether the introduction of "green shift" could be delayed as long as into the fourth year of a Liberal government.

"Any government coming in has to take circumstances into account but the direction is very clearly there."

With file from Bruce Campion-Smith and Richard Brennan
__________________

"This crisis did not begin two weeks ago. It began in August 2007," he said, saying he was ahead of the curve.

"As the saying goes, 'it wasn't raining when Noah built the ark.' Which is why when the rain came, Noah didn't need to panic and he didn't need to switch boats," said Harper.

"We've charted a consistent course on economic and fiscal policy since the day we took office."

WTF?! That's from the same person who practically ignored the decline in the manufacturing sector in Ontario for at least a year and calling for sunny skies for the Canadian economy as recently as last week. The Ark? What Ark? And I am sure that 2% cut in GST is looking mightly helpful to the economy just about now.

AoD
 
Oh and to add to that, one of the arguments that we should vote for him during economic "crisis" (shh!) is that the electorate shouldn't rock the steady boat. Guess who called the election?

AoD
 
I am hoping that not securing a majority will finally move the Conservatives closer to the centre.....and stamp out the ideologues.
 
Oh and to add to that, one of the arguments that we should vote for him during economic "crisis" (shh!) is that the electorate shouldn't rock the steady boat. Guess who called the election?

AoD

Yeah seriously, I guess Harper's devious little plan didn't quite work out the way he wanted! Loves it.
 
Oh and to add to that, one of the arguments that we should vote for him during economic "crisis" (shh!) is that the electorate shouldn't rock the steady boat. Guess who called the election?

AoD

Meh. Find me a party that does not call an election when they think its advantageous. Chretien called elections every 3 years....and Martin called one shortly after taking over cause he thought he would win. I would not blame any political party that called an election as a recession approached. The electorate generally does not understand economics and will blame the party in power for any economic slowdown. So if you were a premier or the PM would you not do the same, knowing that?

If it's a minority at best Harper's got 2 years...and an economic slowdown will leave him really unpopular. If it's a majority they'll have to pull a miracle to get the economy firing full steam in vote rich areas like Ontario in just 4 years. The Conservatives know that. I am almost willing to be that the Liberals will be relieved to lose this election. They can blame the recession on the Conservatives, and having never governed during a slowdown they can say that the Liberal party is the harbringer of good times. If they were smart, they would sit back and enjoy the next 2 years and get their own majority after that!
 
"Meh. Find me a party that does not call an election when they think its advantageous."

Keith:

Pardon the all caps but:

NO OTHER PARTY PROMISED THEY WOULDN'T!!!!!


Anyway, the Tories are in serious trouble. It is now entirely possible that Harper won't be PM in a week. Even if he is, it looks like he may secure an even weaker minority. This will be considered a failure by his party, and I have little doubt that he will be forced to resign.
 
Tories are sinking!!!


DION IS IN STRIKING DISTANCE!!!


EVERYONE HAS JUST JOINED IN THE ANTI-HARPER PARADE!!

WTF!!!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

The whole conservative HQ Is in panic mode right now.

A lot of commentators from out West are wondering what is happening. Its simple Harper did not realize that here in the East, suggesting everything is alright was a blatant lie and a cover up.



The electorate generally does not understand economics and will blame the party in power for any economic slowdown. So if you were a premier or the PM would you not do the same, knowing that?


Do not be so simplistic...

Dalton enjoys more support and liking then ever before. Why???

Well he faces hardly any real opposition.
That whole thing with Flaherty and Dalton, really boosted Dalton's image even among his strongest critics.

Dalton keeps it smart...
He feels your pain but does not panic. When Dalton says things are bad and he keeps a cool image, it seem we are in good hands.

Harper says everything is alright but imo I do not feel the reassurance and imo Dion and Layton have been able to play into that fear very well.


I think the Conservatives will still win, I do not think Dion should win.


The best situation is a slim slim conservative victory. They will be disgraced and will get even unpopular and Liberals will win a easy victory the next time.

I do not think Dion wants to be leader in such a time. I think he wants Harper to get even more disliked...





The Liberals are going nuts and imo if people see the liberals in a good mode, this will just help them. I talked to a friend who works for our local Liberal MP. He says after the debate, there were many new calls for signs and a lot of calls from previously dissapointed Liberals calling for support.

The local Mp called me and he was Punjabi and I said "don't worry, we will teach Harper a lesson. Make him realize that everything is not happy and good.
 
However, Newmarket, Oakville and Mississauga South should go Tory still.

Under current circumstances, I have my doubts about Miss South--not just because the margin was somewhat wider than in Oakville, but it's the kind of place which gets less "naturally" electorally germane to the Tories with each passing year (i.e. less WASPy). It's a reason why, provincially, it's gone from one of the safest Tory seats in the province to relative Liberal security...
 
Actually if Tory Support drops, I am certain Harper has a chance at picking up none of those seats then.




Nanos Research October 6, 2008


Tory: 34%
Liberal: 31%
NDP: 18%
Bloc: 11%
Green: 6%

Look at this cool site. I say its accurate to about 4 seats give or take...

If you input those numbers you get and they are out of this world....



Tory: 111 seats
Liberal: 113 Seats
NDP: 30 seats
Bloc: 54 seats

It shows the NDP really need to get over 20% or else things will not be really cool for them.


So in about 1 week we have gone from the Liberals being destroyed by the NDP, to them having a chance to sneak by Harper.

http://predictor.hillandknowlton.ca...&j=6:0.34,4:0.31,3:0.18,2:0.06,5:0.11,1:0&r=0


If Liberal and Tory support gets around 25-30% and NDP support over 20%, things get really wacky....


This could be the strangest election result since the 1972 Election where it was only a 2 seat minoirty for Trudeau...


I SAY IT HERE FIRST!!!

WE WILL BE SHOCKED!!!
 
But, think about it. Is the glass half full or half empty? The falling polls can actually work in the conservative’s favour. Because if the polls were still at 40%, some undecided would vote Liberal in the “fear” the conservatives would win a majority. Well, now they will not be afraid to do so. I'm still calling it a majority, though a slim one.
 

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