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Canada and the World

Some might call me a hawk for pushing certain ideas. But turns out the Senate Committee on National Security, Defence and Veterans Affairs has many of the same ideas in their report on Arctic Security. They are calling for expediting the submarine replacement program and pushing to join AUKUS.

This is one of those areas that needs a 'whole of nation' approach, even beyond a whole-of-government. We like to pat ourselves on the back that we are a 'northern nation' - but we're not. Close to 85% of our population lives within 160km of the US border, and over half of us live south of the 49th parallel. I suspect the Scandinavian countries laugh at us. Heck, how many people in Toronto have been north of the French River?

I don't think we need to turn the Arctic into an armed camp, but we are lacking things that are basic to the concept of 'it's ours'; proper mapping/nav. charts, innovation in operating and living up there (Inuit knowledge can help, but how to functionally mine, power, communicate, etc. - things important to a non-hunter/gatherer society - in the Arctic should be our forte. Other nations, even the US, should be coming to us for expertise.
 
This is one of those areas that needs a 'whole of nation' approach, even beyond a whole-of-government. We like to pat ourselves on the back that we are a 'northern nation' - but we're not. Close to 85% of our population lives within 160km of the US border, and over half of us live south of the 49th parallel. I suspect the Scandinavian countries laugh at us. Heck, how many people in Toronto have been north of the French River?

I don't think we need to turn the Arctic into an armed camp, but we are lacking things that are basic to the concept of 'it's ours'; proper mapping/nav. charts, innovation in operating and living up there (Inuit knowledge can help, but how to functionally mine, power, communicate, etc. - things important to a non-hunter/gatherer society - in the Arctic should be our forte. Other nations, even the US, should be coming to us for expertise.

I essentially agree w/this point.......but.....on the bolded.....

Lets compare actual day to day weather/climate: Ottawa vs Stockholm:

1688503645086.png


And vs Helsinki:

1688503789135.png


Turns out its far colder well south of the 49th that in the major cities of Scandinavia. Curiously, its also warmer too!

***

Ottawa also gets far more snow in the winter.
 
I don't think we need to turn the Arctic into an armed camp,

That is not what is being called for. Nor would I suggest that. But our abilities to respond to any security or emergency incident up there is substantially limited because of our underinvestment. And as the report points out, the gap between what we have and what we need will grow over time due to climate change.
 
I essentially agree w/this point.......but.....on the bolded.....

Lets compare actual day to day weather/climate: Ottawa vs Stockholm:

View attachment 489857

And vs Helsinki:

View attachment 489858

Turns out its far colder well south of the 49th that in the major cities of Scandinavia. Curiously, its also warmer too!

***

Ottawa also gets far more snow in the winter.
Yes, but thinking of Ottawa as 'north' is part of the problem. I couldn't find figures for how much of Canada's landmass is north of the Arctic Circle, but safe to say it is a fair bit and depending who you ask, is home to about 200,000 people. Arctic Norway is slightly larger than New Brunswick + PEI, and is home to almost 400,000 people.
 
Yes, but thinking of Ottawa as 'north' is part of the problem. I couldn't find figures for how much of Canada's landmass is north of the Arctic Circle, but safe to say it is a fair bit and depending who you ask, is home to about 200,000 people. Arctic Norway is slightly larger than New Brunswick + PEI, and is home to almost 400,000 people.

I wasn't thinking of it as particularly north, i was playing off the idea that if you live in the south you're somehow not an expert in dealing w/winter. If by winter we mean snowfall and cold, I don't think that's a reasonable take.

Yes, our arctic needs investment, yes its thinly populated, yes there are military/sovereignty investments to be made as well; and granted there are no Polar Bears in Ottawa, but I do think Canadians have a high degree of knowledge, on surviving winter'ish conditions.

Not only do we have multiple companies with very high global brand IQ in outerwear (winter); we also have some of the top cold-weather testing facilities. GM's Cold Weather testing facility is in Kapuskasing.

Thompson, MB has major winter testing facilities.

Airbus did its cold weather trials over Nunavut.

****

None of which is to suggest we should not be taking better advantage of that and making important strategic investments.

I'm just being my usual stickler-self for maintaining a sense of balance in discussing such things.
 
From the Star:


AoD

I concur with the thesis above.

Without delays for endless planning we need to do more to address a host of 'basics'. None of the three territories has access to a PET Scanner, not even one. Patients in need of mere diagnostics must be flown to Edmonton or other points south.

Much of the area, including its 'urban centres' lacks High Speed Internet (there is work on this file, but it could move more quickly); there is a real need for more local agriculture, likely indoors or underground further north to reduce the extreme costs of produce.

While we get some 'basics' in place we need to ask some bigger planning questions, with a long time horizons, 50 years even 100 years.

How big do we want the current urban settlements to get? (White Horse, Yellow Knife, and Iqaluit)

If we decide we want the largest of these to crest 100,000, we'll need to plan the requisite infrastructure, not only within the community, but likely its connections by road and perhaps rail to the south.

Rail to Iqalquit is a non-starter, but extending the CN Line from Hay River to Yellowknife should be feasible, I imagine, as would a connection on to White Horse.

Very large project, with no prospective private sector payoff for decades. The sort of decision to be taken now and planned out carefully and the phased into place if it makes sense.

A deep-water, year-round port makes sense, as does a more robust military presence.

We also need to address the longer term amenities package that will induce people to settle up there. University? Improved ability to mitigate winter (heated bus shelters as example) etc etc.

Meanwhile we don't want to despoil the vast nature up there, and also ought to allocate another couple very large national parks while the real estate is still mostly crown land and cheap/free.
 
Fair enough if you allow me a big enough "ish".

It might be that mostly non-Canadian corporations recognize us for our climate rather than inherent expertise.

This is it. There's nothing about expertise that brings Airbus to Nunavut other than the weather. Most of the team for all these kinds of activities come from Europe. Indeed, I'd argue that Canadians are actually relatively underskilled on extreme winter weather relative to the supposed reputation of our country. And I hold this opinion having seen counterparts of our military and having interacted with industry. On the military side, there's more American submariners who've seen the North Pole than sailors in our navy who have. There's better Arctic and Mountain warfare experience with the American units stationed in Alaska and Greenland, than our inherent expertise in the CAF. Very little of our industry genuinely leans into the whole cold weather expertise, the way that you see from Scandinavian industrial companies. Some of that is because so much of our industry is American branch-plant and most of our industry is heavily focused on winning American marketshare.

I find, Canadians in general, have an overly romanticized view of the Arctic. It's seen as some unspoiled wilderness which we maintain as a giant nature reserve. But this is not the view of the Arctic in virtually every other Arctic country. And as such, their view of security and economic competition is substantially different from Canada. I would say we're dangerously naive at times. Especially in the context of how climate change might drastically change activities and access in the region.
 
From the Star:


AoD

In a country that can't even lay out a list of strategic road and rail connections, I'm not holding my breath for real commitment to Arctic infrastructure. We're such an immature country with stuff like this. In the US, the interstate system was first developed as a strategic road network. In Canada, we can't even admit that some roads and rails are more important to our national interests than others and should be appropriately managed and protected with federal legislation.

The Premiers are absolutely right. When you look at what Russia is building across the sea, our rhetoric really starts looking absolutely hilarious.

 
Though I would argue the premiers themselves are part of the problem - would they really care, or is it another attempt to siphon support for their own pet interests (which Ottawa is only too happy to oblige for the sake of votes?)

AoD

We're a democracy. Addressing somebody's pet projects to get something is the toll. I'm okay with it. I'd just like to see one federal government, for once, lay out a real national security strategy that also recognizes that we have hard Arctic interests, and then commit real resources to protecting those interests. Simply saying, "We're an Arctic power," is not enough facing off Russian and Chinese SSNs.

For example, we committed to buying 88 F-35As. We will simply equip them with chutes to operate at our northern FOBs and buy new tankers to give them the legs to get up there. At no point, was there really policy study on whether we should buy VTOL F-35Bs to be able to operate from less prepared facilities in the Arctic. Or how we see the need for deploying that asset evolving over the life of the fleet (till 2050-2060) given the context of climate change. What if the mix was 50 A models and 30 B models instead? What if we're better off cutting a few jets to pay for road infrastructure built to let us operate dispersed, like the Scandinavians? What if we're better off getting fewer jets but starting an amphib program? Our defence policies are often competing shopping lists from the parties with no mature thought of our national interest and what we should commit resources towards and the tradeoffs between choices. It's lead to the bizarre scenario where we follow around the US, but somehow not into areas that should be vital to us. So we have an Indo-Pacific strategy that is now driving defence and diplomacy at the same time as the Americans are increasingly deciding how much and what to station in Alaska to secure the Arctic.
 
We're a democracy. Addressing somebody's pet projects to get something is the toll. I'm okay with it. I'd just like to see one federal government, for once, lay out a real national security strategy that also recognizes that we have hard Arctic interests, and then commit real resources to protecting those interests. Simply saying, "We're an Arctic power," is not enough facing off Russian and Chinese SSNs.

For example, we committed to buying 88 F-35As. We will simply equip them with chutes to operate at our northern FOBs and buy new tankers to give them the legs to get up there. At no point, was there really policy study on whether we should buy VTOL F-35Bs to be able to operate from less prepared facilities in the Arctic. Or how we see the need for deploying that asset evolving over the life of the fleet (till 2050-2060) given the context of climate change. What if the mix was 50 A models and 30 B models instead? What if we're better off cutting a few jets to pay for road infrastructure built to let us operate dispersed, like the Scandinavians? What if we're better off getting fewer jets but starting an amphib program? Our defence policies are often competing shopping lists from the parties with no mature thought of our national interest and what we should commit resources towards and the tradeoffs between choices. It's lead to the bizarre scenario where we follow around the US, but somehow not into areas that should be vital to us. So we have an Indo-Pacific strategy that is now driving defence and diplomacy at the same time as the Americans are increasingly deciding how much and what to station in Alaska to secure the Arctic.

The problem is we as a country seem to be rather self-absorbed - we love parading our past glories and mistakenly equate them to current achievements. We swallow it all and believe that no one will ever test our claims - and guess what, they will.

AoD
 
Yes, but thinking of Ottawa as 'north' is part of the problem. I couldn't find figures for how much of Canada's landmass is north of the Arctic Circle, but safe to say it is a fair bit and depending who you ask, is home to about 200,000 people. Arctic Norway is slightly larger than New Brunswick + PEI, and is home to almost 400,000 people.
I think our Arctic population is even lower than that. The Arctic circle is farther north than people tend to think. All three territorial capitals are south of it. Our biggest community north of the Arctic circle appears to be Inuvik, population 3200.
 
I think our Arctic population is even lower than that. The Arctic circle is farther north than people tend to think. All three territorial capitals are south of it. Our biggest community north of the Arctic circle appears to be Inuvik, population 3200.

Let us enlighten. Here is a map as if looking down on the arctic from above:

1688575985744.png

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic_Circle#/media/File:Arctic_circle.svg

Interesting, if one examines the above, the distinction between the blue circle (the article circle as defined by geography), and the red line, which defines the same by climate.

Note that Norway is sub-arctic based on climate, where a great deal more of Canada is added.
 

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