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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Oakville stats as of October 7, 2013
I am curious if these confirm Interested's view from the ground
Again, use the link below to save the file locally and use your favorite image viewer to zoom in if you need to

http://img855.imageshack.us/img855/1650/66wv.png

Some graphs are really useless ,around 14 points per data point-that means the running average represented in the picture had no more than 14 sales for the previous 30 days for calculating the value of a point on the picture.
That is the case for condos for instance
In the case of houses over $1M that shows that the moving inventory is very low.

Basically the charts for Semis and Condos are useless, just pay attention to Detached

66wv.png

This does I believe confirm what I have been told by a couple of realtors I know.

The high end (over 1.5 million and especially over $2 million had about 1-2 sales/month with about 30 homes for sale...translating into 2 years of inventory based on current sales. The realtor told me that one of his clients wanted to list at $2.5 and he told him in this market he would likely only get low offers and since the vendor did not want a low price he suggested he not even list...which is what the client decided to do. I suspect there are a lot of people out there not listing which means the inventory is probably potentially higher than even appears.
 
This does I believe confirm what I have been told by a couple of realtors I know.

The high end (over 1.5 million and especially over $2 million had about 1-2 sales/month with about 30 homes for sale...translating into 2 years of inventory based on current sales. The realtor told me that one of his clients wanted to list at $2.5 and he told him in this market he would likely only get low offers and since the vendor did not want a low price he suggested he not even list...which is what the client decided to do. I suspect there are a lot of people out there not listing which means the inventory is probably potentially higher than even appears.

You guys did not pay much attention to what I posted here did you?
The charts that I posted before were the same for over 1M and under 1M SFH homes in Oakville

Here is the real chart, sorry for the previous mistake, apparently it was too early for my brain.

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/7105/qg8w.png

qg8w.png
 
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http://www.thestar.com/business/per..._condo_buyers_scrambling_to_close_deals.html#

Toronto real estate: Condo buyers ‘scrambling' to close deals

Mortgage brokers, realtors and developers have seen a surge the last few months in people who bought pre-construction condos two to three years ago “scrambling” to get financing to close deals.
Some have had to walk away from deposits worth tens of thousands of dollars. Others have been forced to borrow from family — or against their principal residence — to come up with final payments on condos that lenders are no longer keen to finance, according to interviews with a number of players in Toronto’s condo industry.
Hardest hit have been the self-employed who had pre-approvals from lenders when they bought their pre-construction units. But now, with the unit almost complete and final payments due, they are being told they need 35 to 50 per cent down, instead of just 20 per cent of the purchase price, unless they want to rely on secondary lenders offering rates that can hit double digits.
Many investors who bought units intending to flip them on completion, or rent them out for a few years, have also been shocked to find they thought they had pre-approvals, but they are no longer being honoured in the wake of tighter lending rules imposed by Ottawa.

Toronto real estate lawyer Oksana Miroutenko has had two cases in the last few months where clients took interim occupancy of their new condos, only to find out weeks later, when final payments were due, that they couldn’t meet new, more stringent, financing conditions.
One worked contract jobs that didn’t bring in a steady enough income to satisfy lenders. Another, who forfeited $35,000 in deposits, became pregnant and her husband lost his job after they’d purchased and been preapproved, says Miroutenko.
“This is the hardest environment I’ve seen for borrowing money in the last 10 years,” says Toronto realtor and condo developer Brad Lamb.
He’s had about 800 condo units close in four of his projects over the last year and says just three people were unable to finalize deals.
Another 15 or so sought permission to put their units up for sale on the so-called assignment market — in hopes of selling before final payments were due.
“There were definitely people that were scrambling to close,” said Lamb. While some had taken on more debt than they could handle, the far bigger issue was thousands of dollars in HST and other closing costs, such as escalating municipal development fees, that buyers just hadn’t anticipated when they bought, he added.
But even selling in the assignment market is proving to be much tougher than it was just over a year ago, when federal Finance Minister Jim Flaherty imposed tougher lending rules in an attempt to cool the temperatures in what was seen as overheated condo markets in Toronto and Vancouver.
A unit that sold for, say, $300,000 two or three years ago may be worth about $350,000 today, but many lenders will only finance a new buyer for the original price, not the current market value, mortgage brokers are finding.
That’s making it tougher for pre-construction buyers who run into financial problems to unload their units.
Financial analyst and long-time housing watcher Ben Rabidoux believes these are just the first “cracks” in Toronto’s housing market and could worsen next year when a record number of new condos — estimates range from about 20,000 to almost 43,000 depending on construction bottlenecks — are expected to be completed.
“An estimated 85 per cent of condo units under construction in Toronto have been sold, but they’ve not (all) been sold to end users, and buyers have not yet been financed,” Rabidoux says in a recent note to investor clients. “Therein lies the problem.”
Mortgage broker Jake Abramowicz believes the saving grace, so far, is that condo buyers generally own principal properties, against which they can borrow to complete condo deals. As well, the Toronto rental market is extraordinarily strong, so condo buyers can generally cover their costs by renting units out.
But he still shakes his head at the auditor who called him in a panic a few weeks ago, looking for a mortgage on a $680,000 condo.
She’d put 20 per cent down on the investment unit but, with closing costs just about due, her bank now wanted 50 per cent down. That’s because she and her husband had stepped up their spending and their costs now exceeded 50 per cent of their gross income — far in excess of what’s allowed under the new lending guidelines.
In the end, she borrowed the difference from a sister and close on the unit, which she now hopes to sell.
 
Another interesting perspective on the GTA condo market:

http://www.cbc.ca/video/news/audioplayer.html?clipid=2408420530

Cliffs:
- Lowest total sales in a decade
- More cranes in GTA than NYC and Mexico City combined
- Many condos purchased by investors looking for quick profit, not people seeking homes
- Speculating phase is ending: lack of investment return + oversupply = decreased demand/prices
- Potential to see 20-30% correction in prices by next year as market seeks balance
 
Another interesting perspective on the GTA condo market:

http://www.cbc.ca/video/news/audioplayer.html?clipid=2408420530

Cliffs:
- Lowest total sales in a decade
- More cranes in GTA than NYC and Mexico City combined
- Many condos purchased by investors looking for quick profit, not people seeking homes
- Speculating phase is ending: lack of investment return + oversupply = decreased demand/prices
- Potential to see 20-30% correction in prices by next year as market seeks balance
There's always a potential for anything, but a 1/4 to 1/3 correction in prices by next seems pretty unlikely, esp. considering where interest rates are likely to be around that time.
 
There's always a potential for anything, but a 1/4 to 1/3 correction in prices by next seems pretty unlikely, esp. considering where interest rates are likely to be around that time.

From a business reporter....
bottom line is markets can stay irrational a lot longer than people can remain liquid. There have been calls for corrections of this magnitude since 2009 and the market is now up 20-30% from then. If the calls in 2009 were correct we should drop 50%.

I agree with you Eug...unlikely corrections to that degree. Also, if condos drop 20% and if Single Family Homes stay where they are, that would make the difference around $300K. It will only drop to these levels if all the investors stop dead in my view and while they may not be buying as much, I don't see a massive sell off. Besides, at the same time this is happening, I am guessing the stock market will be plummetting and money will still be looking for a place to go.

Understand, I do not expect price rises, agree likely may come down, but to say 30% within a year I think is a stretch
 
“This is the hardest environment I’ve seen for borrowing money in the last 10 years,” says Toronto realtor and condo developer Brad Lamb.
He’s had about 800 condo units close in four of his projects over the last year and says just three people were unable to finalize deals.
Another 15 or so sought permission to put their units up for sale on the so-called assignment market — in hopes of selling before final payments were due.
“There were definitely people that were scrambling to close,” said Lamb. While some had taken on more debt than they could handle, the far bigger issue was thousands of dollars in HST and other closing costs, such as escalating municipal development fees, that buyers just hadn’t anticipated when they bought, he added.

I tend to disbelieve virtually everything Bad Lamb says in public. He speaks out of pure self-interest, 100% of the time.

"Everybody is getting slaughtered out there- except me!"

:rolleyes:
 
http://www.thestar.com/business/per..._condo_buyers_scrambling_to_close_deals.html#
Many investors who bought units intending to flip them on completion, or rent them out for a few years, have also been shocked to find they thought they had pre-approvals, but they are no longer being honoured in the wake of tighter lending rules imposed by Ottawa.
Perhaps I'm ignorant - certainly can't keep up with all the news... but what new rules are these? Isn't it just tightened from 30 years to 25years? and how did 20% down become 50% down?
 
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Perhaps I'm ignorant - certainly can't keep up with all the news... but what new rules are these? Isn't it just tightened from 30 years to 25years? and how did 20% down become 50% down?

They need to be able to pay the 5-year interest rate too regardless of what short-term mortgage they might be applying for.

There are a large number of fees to be paid when taking ownership which cannot be put under a mortgage (land transfer taxes, GST, lawyer fees, etc.) add up to tens of thousands in some cases.

It sounds like their salaries are not high enough to buy the condo OR they failed to consider the fees when taking ownership.


A surprising number of people buy without an agents help and do not hire a lawyer until closing. They really don't know about all the closing fees until the last minute because they don't hire help until the developer asks them how to contact their lawyer.
 
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They need to be able to pay the 5-year interest rate too regardless of what short-term mortgage they might be applying for.

There are a large number of fees to be paid when taking ownership which cannot be put under a mortgage (land transfer taxes, GST, lawyer fees, etc.) add up to tens of thousands in some cases.


It sounds like their salaries are not high enough to buy the condo OR they failed to consider the fees when taking ownership.


A surprising number of people buy without an agents help and do not hire a lawyer until closing. They really don't know about all the closing fees until the last minute because they don't hire help until the developer asks them how to contact their lawyer.

I was wondering if the comment requiring 35 to 50% down payment was for investors who already own a principal home? The article was a little unclear. I thought there were stricter lending requirements for those buying solely for investment purposes.

I will be interesting to see what happens in the US - if they can't get agreement on the debt ceiling that could be real game changer in terms of interest rates.
 
I will be interesting to see what happens in the US - if they can't get agreement on the debt ceiling that could be real game changer in terms of interest rates.

The House Of Representatives leadership (John Boehner) will bring a bill up for a vote that will extend the debt limit for about a month (or month and a half), but still keep the government shut down, and will see if he is able to get most of the Tea Party caucus member's support. If he isn't able to muster their backing, then he'll have no option but to turn to Democratic House members to pass something.

My guess is that he'll get the support of enough of his fellow Republicans and this can will be kicked down the road for another month or so - no immediate default, but no real solution either.
 
Yellen will also prolong the easing probably well into 2014 or possibly 2015 as she is adamant that it is jobs that are important. Expect it to take to 2015 to reach 6.5% unemployment.
The stock market was absolutely bouyant today on that news and that there is movement starting in the House and Senate and the President in the US as they realize that they cannot breach Oct 17 without consequences. This will force some compromise.
I expect there will be ongoing wrangling....will adversely affect US GDP...since we are inextricably tied to them expect no large interest rate for the next year....means no big correction in my view in prices....unless another unexpected event occurs.
 
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 3,460 sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of October 2013. This result was up by 21 per cent in comparison to 2,849 sales reported during the same period in 2012. October mid-month sales were also up by 13 per cent compared to the 10-year average.

“With October mid-month sales well-above the 10-year average, it seems clear that we have more than recovered from the temporary dip in residential transactions that resulted from the onset of stricter mortgage lending guidelines,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.

“It is also important to note that the supply of ground-oriented listings remains constrained, due in part to the additional land transfer tax and stricter lending guidelines. If this were not the case, the number of sales could have been greater because more households would have been able find a home to purchase,” continued Ms. Usher.

The average selling price for October mid-month transactions was $536,301 – up 7.3 per cent compared to the first 14 days of October 2012.

“Price growth has been stronger in the second half of 2013, as sales growth has outstripped growth in listings. There have been more buyers competing for available properties compared to the first half of the year, which has led to increased upward pressure on average selling prices,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...market_updates/news2013/nr_mid_month_1013.htm


Average selling price in the 416 - $589,828 up 9.4% y/y Sales up 23.5% y/y
Average selling price of condos in the 416 - $391,180 up 10.7% y/y Sales up 22% y/y
 
So reading that makes me wonder one thing - what comes up - must come down... reading through the tread, it seems that since the last "crash", prices haven't gone back down at all... and it seems like it just keeps going up. If recharts "predicted"/warned us about the condo market softening months in advance, recharts - what is your view on detached (<1$mill) prices in the long term?
 
Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 3,460 sales through the TorontoMLS system during the first 14 days of October 2013. This result was up by 21 per cent in comparison to 2,849 sales reported during the same period in 2012. October mid-month sales were also up by 13 per cent compared to the 10-year average.

“With October mid-month sales well-above the 10-year average, it seems clear that we have more than recovered from the temporary dip in residential transactions that resulted from the onset of stricter mortgage lending guidelines,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Dianne Usher.

“It is also important to note that the supply of ground-oriented listings remains constrained, due in part to the additional land transfer tax and stricter lending guidelines. If this were not the case, the number of sales could have been greater because more households would have been able find a home to purchase,” continued Ms. Usher.

The average selling price for October mid-month transactions was $536,301 – up 7.3 per cent compared to the first 14 days of October 2012.

“Price growth has been stronger in the second half of 2013, as sales growth has outstripped growth in listings. There have been more buyers competing for available properties compared to the first half of the year, which has led to increased upward pressure on average selling prices,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board’s Senior Manager of Market Analysis.

http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...market_updates/news2013/nr_mid_month_1013.htm


Average selling price in the 416 - $589,828 up 9.4% y/y Sales up 23.5% y/y
Average selling price of condos in the 416 - $391,180 up 10.7% y/yTHIS IS FAKE:-->Sales up 22% y/y

As far as I am concerned this report is BULLSHIT in regards to Condo sales numbers.
The price jump is real as I pointed out in my recent charts
All sales included: http://t.co/AceybDaK1T
Under 1 mil only: http://t.co/P530jUHGaE


There is a HUGE difference between what TREB reported above and what was published as sold this month by tosold.ca

I suspect that they are now adding what is being sold via private transactions using sites like Property Guys or FSBO.
That would be the only reasonable explanation for what is happening.

I challenge anybody on this site to produce that list with those 582 properties.
Just the MLS numbers and the price.

If you are connected with the RE agents active on these site and they want your business ASK THEM to provide you the list with properties that sold in TO over the first 15 days of October


So reading that makes me wonder one thing - what comes up - must come down... reading through the tread, it seems that since the last "crash", prices haven't gone back down at all... and it seems like it just keeps going up. If recharts "predicted"/warned us about the condo market softening months in advance, recharts - what is your view on detached (<1$mill) prices in the long term?

As this chart shows you the price has been almost flat for the last 6 months
Under 1 mil only: http://t.co/P530jUHGaE

I believe it will stay there till the interest rates rise
You will see some price softening this winter but that might be balanced by low inventory during the colder months of the year
The debt discussion in US will be opened again in February. If something goes wrong at that time the prices might go down substantially
There is a secondary factor that might affect the other markets.
Currently the Condo market is crashing (officially you can not see it because the RE boards have put a silencer on it)
If this surfaces some panic might spread in the other markets. It will all come from the above 1mil properties downward.
Those guys are already having doubts regarding the market and I am seeing big discounts in the once very hot areas of the city for over $1M properties.
If the action there precipitates that will push downward the entire price scale

As an example I can tell you that in the area that I am watching I am seeing this sort of pressure caused by a near by zone where the houses used to be expensive
They are still selling there but the buyers do not kill themselves anymore for those properties. Since that is happening there, it blocked the transactions in my area which is adjacent to the one mentioned above
There are a couple of decent properties in my areas that do no sell simply because the sellers in the adjacent area steal the interested buyers from my area.
Compared with last year and with this summer the market is more relaxed.
Also keep in mind that we are now seeing the effects of the new interest rates.
I could probably buy now but Garth Turner's advice is a good one: do not buy if there is no snow around.

My advice: do your homework, watch the areas where you are interested and see what is going on. Do not get confused by the average prices posted by TREB. Those are, at best, 1000 feet views of the market and as many times noted in the media the reports are not accurate. Compile your own!
 
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