Baby, we got a bubble!?

[recharts]

+1

This thread is ridiculous...

+1

 

[recharts]

And here are some refreshing sales that happened during the first 15 days of the month
Copy and paste these in an excel table to align everything
You will never go this from IYSM
See the first line? "It sold you are lying" after 21 days for 99% of asking (80days for 77% in fact!)
Even more entertaining is the line in red. It sold for 105%(92%) after 4 price changes

MLS Number Initial Asking Price Relisted Price Last Asking Price SoldPrice % of Relisted % of Initial Real Discount Taxes Declared DOM Real DOM Last Price Drop Price Changes
C2731493 318000 248000 248000 246000.0 99 77.0 -72000 1350/2013 21 80 -70000 ,2013-06-18=318000,2013-09-06=248000
W2726082 129900 115000 115000 109000.0 95 84.0 -20900 886.88/2013 30 124 -4000 ,2013-05-29=129900,2013-06-14=124900,2013-07-19=119000,2013-09-02=115000
W2674862 244900 244900 214900 214000.0 100 87.0 -30900 1866.30/2013 98 29 -5000 ,2013-07-01=244900,2013-07-12=239900
C2696880 263888 249999 249999 238500.0 95 90.0 -25388 1449.85/2012 73 135 -4901 ,2013-05-18=263888,2013-06-12=254900,2013-07-22=249999
C2669464 274900 264900 264900 250000.0 94 91.0 -24900 0.01/2013 88 118 -10000 ,2013-05-18=274900,2013-06-18=264900
C2716086 437888 395000 399888 397000.0 99 91.0 -40888 2359.87/2012 42 114 4888 ,2013-06-08=437888,2013-06-21=425888,2013-08-16=395000,2013-09-23=399888
W2674862 234900 244900 214900 214000.0 100 91.0 -20900 1866.30/2013 98 53 -10000 ,2013-08-02=234900,2013-08-21=224900,2013-09-11=214900
C2719712 449000 439000 419000 415000.0 99 92.0 -34000 2054.40/2013 40 123 -20000 ,2013-05-30=449000,2013-08-21=439000,2013-09-19=419000
C2730218 588000 550000 550000 540000.0 98 92.0 -48000 2937.77/2012 22 135 -38000 ,2013-05-18=588000,2013-06-13=550000
C2728250 455000 428800 399900 420000.0 105 92.0 -35000 2711.48/2013 27 122 -28900 ,2013-05-31=455000,2013-06-26=449900,2013-07-13=443500,2013-09-04=428800,2013-09-19=399900
E2731069 223444 220000 220000 206000.0 94 92.0 -17444 1245.43/2013 16 65 -3444 ,2013-07-07=223444,2013-09-06=220000
E2728860 235000 229000 229000 218000.0 95 93.0 -17000 1450/2012 24 122 4000 ,2013-05-31=235000,2013-06-07=225000,2013-09-05=229000
W2700925 249900 244900 244900 235000.0 96 94.0 -14900 1524.39/2012 56 135 10000 ,2013-05-18=249900,2013-06-06=234900,2013-07-26=244900
C2745584 849000 829000 829000 805000.0 97 95.0 -44000 6883.41/2013 0 54 -20000 ,2013-08-07=849000,2013-09-24=829000
E2695841 209800 209800 199900 200000.0 100 95.0 -9800 1245.43/2013 71 3 0
E2695841 209800 209800 199900 200000.0 100 95.0 -9800 1245.43/2013 71 69 5100 ,2013-07-23=209800,2013-08-02=204800,2013-09-05=194800,2013-09-09=199900
C2735499 338000 338000 328000 326000.0 99 96.0 -12000 1974.41/2013 20 19 -10000 ,2013-09-11=338000,2013-09-18=328000
W2680878 320000 320000 309000 308000.0 100 96.0 -12000 1900/2013 87 89 -11000 ,2013-07-03=320000,2013-09-10=309000
W2733811 427000 410000 410000 408500.0 100 96.0 -18500 2537.46/2013 18 135 -17000 ,2013-05-18=427000,2013-09-10=410000
C2660132 445000 445000 438888 430500.0 98 97.0 -14500 2436.99/2012 112 114 -6112 ,2013-06-08=445000,2013-07-27=438888

 

[interested]

ISYM and Recharts:

You 2 are not going to agree. So be it.

That said, personally, I would like to able to review the raw data and draw my own conclusions.
I do not need any personal information on the seller/buyer so no fear of being off side on Pipeda or other privacy legislation.

However, without being a conspiracy theorist, I do have some concerns that those providing the data have a vested interest in the results. Hence my request.

In my view, Recharts is extreme in his view but rightly or wrongly is attempting to get data to support his claims.
I do not approve of how he sometimes presents his views but I do feel it should be rebutted with proper stats....and since it is the very stats that he feels are manipulated...the raw data should be made available and independly (perhaps by 3rd party auditors) be verified.

Since the R/E industry and its spinoffs represent such a significant portion of the GDP of Canada, this is information that should be available. Let the chips fall where they may.... If the sales and numbers are as bad as Recharts suspects, then shame on the industry. If they are in fact true and reliable as ISYM, then let that be shown and forever silence Recharts.

I appreciate this won't happen which is sad as I feel the public are the losers and having to make decisions based on information that may or may not be accurate.

I watched the video's (the first and 1/2 of the second) of the realtor in BC. It is sad, and it does sound to me that he was not allowed due process. Usually one gets warnings before one is fired and if true (and we only hear his side) that they did not even specify what sections of the Code of Conduct were violated, this is unfortunate if not illegal. However, I am reminded somewhat of the scandal involving the government scientists are coming out stating that they are being muzzled from disclosing "the truth". There are potentially similarities here. That someone who does "not tow the line" will be marginalized, fired, or held in disrepute. This behaviour only ensures that truth will not come out as those who go "against the grain" will pay a large personal price.

On that note, I would ask that ISYM and Recharts please carry on your disagreement in the P.M. section as I believe most of us understand your positions and do not need to hear the ongoing minor revisions of the same.

I realize I will become the target now probably of others on the forum but I believe I represent the views of many who are more moderate on this forum.

ISYM...if it is available, and it can be published in generic form....can you provide the total sales for say downtown TO (corrected for double/triple counts if available), the actual sales, and the actual prices for each listing...and further compared to last year...that would be great. My suspicion is that it is not readily available and that even if it is, if not compiled as such, it would be too much work to get for an individual (though I am sure this is know to the R/E main offices).

 

[recharts]

YOU ARE NOT GOING TO EVER GET ANY VERIFIABLE DATA FROM HER. (YOU MUST BE IN BUSINESS WITH HER, that means pay a hefty comission to buy or sell a property and sign a contract with her)
All she does is to discredit anybody who speaks against RE, TREB and so on.
There have been so many blatant examples of RE agents who deliberately tried to mislead people .
While a poor and uneducated guy steals a 5$ product from a Chinese store on Spadina we have a citizens arest and the guy ends up in jail, schemes like those that the RE agents deploy to mislead people
remain unsanctioned although the stakes are higher much higher that 5$.

Just look at our history here. Has ISYM ever came here to post data and to warn you that something is not right?
Show us a single useful set of data posted by here here during the last 6 months.


You know what is the worst thing? It is that even the non-MLS stats (ex FSBO sales) are apparently being managed by CREA.
How the heck is this possible? Why can't the government have their own independent people who collect and process stats from the land registry where I understand all these transactions are being recorded anyway?

Why in NY/US is OK to publish this sort of data

http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/DS/DocumentSearch/DocumentDetail?doc_id=2013040200283001

and it is not OK to publish it in Canada?
WHY IN NY YOU CAN SEARCH THESE: http://a836-acris.nyc.gov/CP/
AND THIS IS NOT POSSIBLE IN TORONTO?

BECAUSE PEOPLE LIKE ISYM EXIST!

ISYM and Recharts:

You 2 are not going to agree. So be it.

That said, personally, I would like to able to review the raw data and draw my own conclusions.
I do not need any personal information on the seller/buyer so no fear of being off side on Pipeda or other privacy legislation.

However, without being a conspiracy theorist, I do have some concerns that those providing the data have a vested interest in the results. Hence my request.

In my view, Recharts is extreme in his view but rightly or wrongly is attempting to get data to support his claims.
I do not approve of how he sometimes presents his views but I do feel it should be rebutted with proper stats....and since it is the very stats that he feels are manipulated...the raw data should be made available and independly (perhaps by 3rd party auditors) be verified.

Since the R/E industry and its spinoffs represent such a significant portion of the GDP of Canada, this is information that should be available. Let the chips fall where they may.... If the sales and numbers are as bad as Recharts suspects, then shame on the industry. If they are in fact true and reliable as ISYM, then let that be shown and forever silence Recharts.

I appreciate this won't happen which is sad as I feel the public are the losers and having to make decisions based on information that may or may not be accurate.

I watched the video's (the first and 1/2 of the second) of the realtor in BC. It is sad, and it does sound to me that he was not allowed due process. Usually one gets warnings before one is fired and if true (and we only hear his side) that they did not even specify what sections of the Code of Conduct were violated, this is unfortunate if not illegal. However, I am reminded somewhat of the scandal involving the government scientists are coming out stating that they are being muzzled from disclosing "the truth". There are potentially similarities here. That someone who does "not tow the line" will be marginalized, fired, or held in disrepute. This behaviour only ensures that truth will not come out as those who go "against the grain" will pay a large personal price.

On that note, I would ask that ISYM and Recharts please carry on your disagreement in the P.M. section as I believe most of us understand your positions and do not need to hear the ongoing minor revisions of the same.

I realize I will become the target now probably of others on the forum but I believe I represent the views of many who are more moderate on this forum.

ISYM...if it is available, and it can be published in generic form....can you provide the total sales for say downtown TO (corrected for double/triple counts if available), the actual sales, and the actual prices for each listing...and further compared to last year...that would be great. My suspicion is that it is not readily available and that even if it is, if not compiled as such, it would be too much work to get for an individual (though I am sure this is know to the R/E main offices).

 

[ISYM]

Interested, the duplicate and triplicate listings you refer to is CREA related, not TREB, and pertains to a property in one board’s jurisdiction being placed on the MLS systems of other boards for reach to more Realtors and their buyers. Each board is independent of the other and assigns an MLS number specific to their own numbering system. So an Oakville listing placed by the listing brokerage on Oakville’s, Hamilton’s and TREB MLS systems is counted once by each board, none of the boards will count it three times because it is not appearing three times on any board’s system. Each board in turn publishes the number of transactions processed through their system and reports same to CREA who aggregates it for publishing national data. So if it is being double or triple counted, it’s at CREA’s level and for that to happen, it would mean that that there is no filter that allows for flagging multiple listings of one address. TREB has such a filter that flags for statistical reporting purposes any listings that are duplicated on its system (e.g, a property listed by an owner under one brokerage and the same property listed by court ordered power of sale under another brokerage on behalf of the lender). CREA says there is such a filter, but that I wouldn’t know.

The only possible way for the information you request to be publicly posted is to not show address or mls # as that can lead to identifying individuals and violate their privacy rights and that type of list wouldn’t satisfy anyone. Name and address is not the only definition of private information as pointed out by the privacy commissioner http://www.priv.gc.ca/cf-dc/2009/2009_002_0220_e.asp

The solution is really simple, all you need do Interested, is ask your Realtor to pull the information in your presence. Visually seeing it on the screen and being able to look at them all is the only way to satisfy anyone who thinks TREB is cooking the numbers as you can see from recharts’ position. Because:

Publishing it would also violate the TOS as noted previously and goes beyond the allowed use of the information buyers and sellers grant to Realtors, brokerages. TREB’s TOS disallows us from pulling mass blocks of information for non trade purposes and considers it scraping as can be found in his court decision which I encourage you to read in its entirety as it pertains to TREB’s data. Note[17] [22] [23]
http://tinyurl.com/k8qu7gp

Additionally, under the Real Estate Business and Brokers Act, and TREB’s TOS, the information may only be used in the course of pursuing our business with customers and clients. Code Sec 36 (7-9) forbids us from releasing this type of sales information without the consent of the parties. Doing so is also considered advertising by RECO, and we may not advertise the sales placed by other brokerages without their express consent. This is why there aren’t 38,000 individual Realtor websites publishing lists of sales – the majority of us will not jeopardize our licence by breaking the rules.

A judge’s short form summary, “The purchase price of real estate, together with the address of the property, has been held to be information about an identifiable individual and, therefore, personal information.†and “The PIPEDA prohibits the use or disclosure of personal information for purposes other than those for which it was collected, except with the consent of the individual or as required by law.â€
http://tinyurl.com/km5c2x7

REBBA reference:
http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_050580_e.htm#BK37

It only takes a quick call to RECO and or the Privacy Commissioner to determine whether what I claim is the truth or a lie and that really is the route to go.

RECO 1-800-245-6910
Privacy Commissioner 416-326-3333

 

[interested]

Interested, the duplicate and triplicate listings you refer to is CREA related, not TREB, and pertains to a property in one board’s jurisdiction being placed on the MLS systems of other boards for reach to more Realtors and their buyers. Each board is independent of the other and assigns an MLS number specific to their own numbering system. So an Oakville listing placed by the listing brokerage on Oakville’s, Hamilton’s and TREB MLS systems is counted once by each board, none of the boards will count it three times because it is not appearing three times on any board’s system. Each board in turn publishes the number of transactions processed through their system and reports same to CREA who aggregates it for publishing national data. So if it is being double or triple counted, it’s at CREA’s level and for that to happen, it would mean that that there is no filter that allows for flagging multiple listings of one address. TREB has such a filter that flags for statistical reporting purposes any listings that are duplicated on its system (e.g, a property listed by an owner under one brokerage and the same property listed by court ordered power of sale under another brokerage on behalf of the lender). CREA says there is such a filter, but that I wouldn’t know.

The only possible way for the information you request to be publicly posted is to not show address or mls # as that can lead to identifying individuals and violate their privacy rights and that type of list wouldn’t satisfy anyone. Name and address is not the only definition of private information as pointed out by the privacy commissioner http://www.priv.gc.ca/cf-dc/2009/2009_002_0220_e.asp

The solution is really simple, all you need do Interested, is ask your Realtor to pull the information in your presence. Visually seeing it on the screen and being able to look at them all is the only way to satisfy anyone who thinks TREB is cooking the numbers as you can see from recharts’ position. Because:

Publishing it would also violate the TOS as noted previously and goes beyond the allowed use of the information buyers and sellers grant to Realtors, brokerages. TREB’s TOS disallows us from pulling mass blocks of information for non trade purposes and considers it scraping as can be found in his court decision which I encourage you to read in its entirety as it pertains to TREB’s data. Note[17] [22] [23]
http://tinyurl.com/k8qu7gp

Additionally, under the Real Estate Business and Brokers Act, and TREB’s TOS, the information may only be used in the course of pursuing our business with customers and clients. Code Sec 36 (7-9) forbids us from releasing this type of sales information without the consent of the parties. Doing so is also considered advertising by RECO, and we may not advertise the sales placed by other brokerages without their express consent. This is why there aren’t 38,000 individual Realtor websites publishing lists of sales – the majority of us will not jeopardize our licence by breaking the rules.

A judge’s short form summary, “The purchase price of real estate, together with the address of the property, has been held to be information about an identifiable individual and, therefore, personal information.” and “The PIPEDA prohibits the use or disclosure of personal information for purposes other than those for which it was collected, except with the consent of the individual or as required by law.”
http://tinyurl.com/km5c2x7

REBBA reference:
http://www.e-laws.gov.on.ca/html/regs/english/elaws_regs_050580_e.htm#BK37

It only takes a quick call to RECO and or the Privacy Commissioner to determine whether what I claim is the truth or a lie and that really is the route to go.

RECO 1-800-245-6910
Privacy Commissioner 416-326-3333

Thank you for the detailed answer.
However ISYM I am not sure it addresses whether the data is correct or not. Raw data before filtered by TREB or any other realty source is what I believe would be needed to answer the question once and for all. I am not saying TREB's data is right or wrong, simply that it is not the raw data.

Also, with regard to the area I high lighted. A sale in Oakville would then appear on the TREB data as a sale if it was listed on both the Oakville and Toronto boards...is that correct?
If so, I think we would both agree that would artificially inflate sales in Toronto (for the Oakville house being sold) though I suppose it would also inflate the listings if it was also recorded in Treb's data as a listing. The suggestion being made is this is not necessarily the case and without the RAW data, it remains a source of question.

It seems to me that TREB or CREA if they really wanted to address this issue could clarify this once and for all. My suspicion is there is not a lot of desire to do so because the results likely will hurt its membership. Otherwise, I can't for the life of me, understand why they would not do it or allow an independent 3rd party audit to do this. Yes it would cost money but would go a long way to reassuring at least some of the public which is skeptical of the validity of the data.

Just my views. Not aiming to fight with anyone.

 

[recharts]

Lying in sales reports in regards to the sales conditions like days on the market, changing the MLS number to hide this information, pretending that there is bidding wars when the house sold for the price of the area must be also regulated by privacy rules

Interested, the duplicate and triplicate listings you refer to is CREA related, not TREB, and pertains to a property in one board’s jurisdiction being placed on the MLS systems of other boards for reach to more Realtors and their buyers. Each board is independent of ....bullshit and crap

 

[recharts]

Just my views. Not aiming to fight with anyone.

Yeap, don't fight be a true Canadian, polite even when someone tries to fool you
Even when she tries to fool you by avoiding the answer you prefer to be polite instead of telling her what you should.
That is why you will have her data from now on, polite and polished.
You know what they say; bullshit in, bullshit out. What you give is what you get. And you pay a commission on top of that.

 

[drewp]

I checked how many actually sold......TREB claims 582 condos sold.....from October 1st-14th my list showed 540. So there is a slight discrepancy. I would be curious to know why.

Also TREB claims 1381 total sold properties during the first 14 days in 416. My MLS sold claims 1223 total sold......I am a Realtor so I do believe the public needs to know the truth about the information that is given. Could that many deals fall apart? hmmmm.....I wonder

 

[interested]

Yeap, don't fight be a true Canadian, polite even when someone tries to fool you
Even when she tries to fool you by avoiding the answer you prefer to be polite instead of telling her what you should.
That is why you will have her data from now on, polite and polished.
You know what they say; bullshit in, bullshit out. What you give is what you get. And you pay a commission on top of that.

Recharts. Civility is something most people should have. I don't need to resort to swearing to make my point. I get that she did not answer my question. I am only to familiar with the GIGO principle...Garbage in, garbage out.
One does not need to resort to vulgarities to make a point in my view.

DrewP has brought up an interesting point in his post 8112. 42 on 540 is a discrepency of 8% which I would say is very significant. Maybe ISYM or someone will enlighten us as to the cause?

 

[recharts]

I checked how many actually sold......TREB claims 582 condos sold.....from October 1st-14th my list showed 540. So there is a slight discrepancy. I would be curious to know why. Anyone want to chime in.

Just a 7% error
how many of those have Property taxes 0 for 2013 ?
That would indicate how many were either assigned or have just been taken into possession and the owner has not had the chance to pay the maintenance fee.

Of course you can easily check the address to see if the project's page to see if the condo has been built or taken into possession

 

[recharts]

Recharts. Civility is something most people should have. I don't need to resort to swearing to make my point. I get that she did not answer my question. I am only to familiar with the GIGO principle...Garbage in, garbage out.
One does not need to resort to vulgarities to make a point in my view.

DrewP has brought up an interesting point in his post 8112. 42 on 540 is a discrepancy of 8% which I would say is very significant. Maybe ISYM or someone will enlighten us as to the cause?

I totally agree with you and I do not like vulgarities either
Here is an exaggerated comparison.
What do you respect the most: someone who is very polite and educated but by his actions led to bankruptcy a country or a generation or thousands of people
or someone who is cursing daily when he or she sees something wrong but whose intentions and acts are obviously right and disinterested ?

There is a limit beyond which people who persist in their wrong actions do not deserve respect or anything else, on the contrary you have to speak to them in a language more appropriate to their facts.
There is also a way to measure a person by the consequences of their facts. Here is recharts talking bad words to ISYM and here is ISYM influencing the decision of many buyers by saying that TREB's data is correct without actually producing any data to support that statement. One has no interest in this issue the other is in an obvious conflict of interests.

drewp confirms what Ross Kay indicated in his reply to my question.
And keep in mind that this is just for Condos. 7%-8% error...but of course recharts is crazy

re: civility -another comparison-why don't we treat with civility killers and drug dealers and so on. why raid their homes when you can try to just speak with them? Just align them all in front of their TV sets and talk to them, educate them
I bet you that our police officers do not say a bad word when they arrest them, they all sing religious hymns

Apply that to our situation...what do you think it will happen if the MLS database is taken over by the government (that would be a raid)

 

[interested]

^^^
It is not a question of respect.
Adding vulgarities and incivility does nothing to forward any position....right or wrong.
In fact, I would suggest it detracts from the position as the other person listening throws out the baby with the bathwater as it were...in other words, the sound argument gets lost in all the noise.

I do not wish to be drawn in any more into your feud with ISYM.

I am only too happy to hear reasoned points. I don't mind opinions so long as they are expressed as such and not as facts.
I do appreciate data. However, even assuming your data is 100% correct...showing drops in asking price does not tell me very much. For e.g. I list a property for $1 million. The realtors say I should ask $900K. I insist on $999,999 because I want it. Guess what, I drop in a month to $949K, then to $929K and finally to $899K and it sells for $870K. You would say it sold $130K below ask. I would say it was priced $100K over value. It sold for a $30K discount.
Similarly, to create a bidding war I price at $799K the same property worth $900K. The realtors will say sold for $70K over ask if it goes for $870K. I would say it was sold for market value.
My point is in a distorted market with people listing to create bidding wars (less so now) and others pricing 5% beyond the last sale (again not so much now), this is going to distort looking at the absolute figures.

 

[PinkLucy]

Interested, you're just too logical

 

[recharts]

^^^
It is not a question of respect.
Adding vulgarities and incivility does nothing to forward any position....right or wrong.
In fact, I would suggest it detracts from the position as the other person listening throws out the baby with the bathwater as it were...in other words, the sound argument gets lost in all the noise.

I do not wish to be drawn in any more into your feud with ISYM.

I am only too happy to hear reasoned points. I don't mind opinions so long as they are expressed as such and not as facts.
I do appreciate data. However, even assuming your data is 100% correct...showing drops in asking price does not tell me very much. For e.g. I list a property for $1 million. The realtors say I should ask $900K. I insist on $999,999 because I want it. Guess what, I drop in a month to $949K, then to $929K and finally to $899K and it sells for $870K. You would say it sold $130K below ask. I would say it was priced $100K over value. It sold for a $30K discount.
Similarly, to create a bidding war I price at $799K the same property worth $900K. The realtors will say sold for $70K over ask if it goes for $870K. I would say it was sold for market value.
My point is in a distorted market with people listing to create bidding wars (less so now) and others pricing 5% beyond the last sale (again not so much now), this is going to distort looking at the absolute figures.

I don;t think that you are getting my point in regards to the vocabulary used in my discussion with ISYM.
You are holding too tight on a matter of shape and moreover you believe that a war is not needed when the other side just persist in their wrong actions.
I guess this is a cultural difference and I will stop here. There will be a day when the canadians will pay a heavy price for their excessive political correctness. It is actually happening. Anyway this is a different topic.

My initial comment was regarding sales numbers. I admitted that the prices went up this first half of the month.
There is just no way that my source of data could miss so many listings. something is fishy here!