Baby, we got a bubble!?

[CN Tower]

Spread between pre con and resale is too wide, look for resale to play catch up this spring. Pre con market remains very strong, investors playing big role here, in some towers 80 percent. Rental market also very strong, important - rented unit, investor most likely to hold in strong market.

^says the salesman.

Personally I'm tiring of your ridiculous boosterism George. You come across as genuine as david lereah circa 2006.

You say pre-con prices are too far ahead of resale prices therefore resale prices will climb.

Based on what? Hopium?

I dont buy the strong rental market argument for a minute. Nothing more than Brad Lamb bs statements that gets re-tweeted around the brokerage industry. No doubt the universe of condos for rent is far from accurately reported by the real estate brokerage community. Perhaps the mls inventory that in no way reflects the real market for available rental units.

 

[Condo George]

CN it was not boosterism and really its just my opinion that there is value in the resale market for investors. I just dont get it I guess on how you can constantly try to discredit what I say.

Its also odd that you did not comment on my Ritz post, that was a heads up on what I see, but really you have never supported a single view I had or will have.

Thats ok, I am not just a salesman but consider myself as a wealth builder for my investor clients, so you could have said the investor/salesman says but you seem to always want to put a negative spin on what I say or could be just your opinion I guess.

Some people also look down on me because of my long hair, I am who I am and if you dont like it too bad, I do pretty well as an investor and a broker and appreciate people who do not judge me based on that but judge me based on my merit, knowledge and experience as an investor broker.

I recently met with someone just like the above, talked down to me a bit, things changed when he seen my Flying Spur. Too bad people judge a book by its cover, I am sure others here feel or have felt the same way.

I am a genuine person CN, I dont know what your agenda is but you dont know me so please try a give me a chance as others here do appreciate my comments, insight and most importantly my time.

You may also put a negative spin on this post too. So be it, maybe some day we will have coffee and you will find out what George is all about.

 

[KA1]

Spread between pre con and resale is too wide, look for resale to play catch up this spring. Pre con market remains very strong, investors playing big role here, in some towers 80 percent. Rental market also very strong, important - rented unit, investor most likely to hold in strong market.

Condo George, first of all, I am glad that you have come back to the thread.

Please keep us appraised of increase in psf of resale. If what you predict does indeed happen, then, we will be heading for even a bigger bubble burst than some others on this thread have indicated ( 15 - 25% decline).

 

[CN Tower]

CN it was not boosterism and really its just my opinion that there is value in the resale market for investors. I just dont get it I guess on how you can constantly try to discredit what I say.

Its also odd that you did not comment on my Ritz post, that was a heads up on what I see, but really you have never supported a single view I had or will have.

Thats ok, I am not just a salesman but consider myself as a wealth builder for my investor clients, so you could have said the investor/salesman says but you seem to always want to put a negative spin on what I say or could be just your opinion I guess.

Some people also look down on me because of my long hair, I am who I am and if you dont like it too bad, I do pretty well as an investor and a broker and appreciate people who do not judge me based on that but judge me based on my merit, knowledge and experience as an investor broker.

I recently met with someone just like the above, talked down to me a bit, things changed when he seen my Flying Spur. Too bad people judge a book by its cover, I am sure others here feel or have felt the same way.

I am a genuine person CN, I dont know what your agenda is but you dont know me so please try a give me a chance as others here do appreciate my comments, insight and most importantly my time.


You may also put a negative spin on this post too. So be it, maybe some day we will have coffee and you will find out what George is all about.

George,

You're barking up the wrong tree. I'm merely responding to your comments on the market. I have no idea what you look like or what kind of car you drive. The former makes no difference to me while your bold pronouncement of the latter smacks of wild insecurities.

I am probably a bigger believer in GTA real estate than you are, truth be told, i just prefer to disect the data objectively as possible in this forum. I would hate to see it turn into a Buzz Buzz Advertorial. There is value in some higher level discourse. You seem to pop in here periodically with an air of authority and a chip on your shoulder with near messianic pronouncement that lack any depth. I find it dissapointing.

I will say this though- if i had something to sell you'd be one of the calls I'd make. Please take that as a compliment.

 

[Condo George]

Cn, if you dont know what I look like, how did you know I advertise on CP24 and CTV as stated in your previous posts? You do know, its ok.

 

[Condo George]

This is the problem with the agent or broker community stereotype..........If an agent or a rep from the broker community comments or states his/her opinion .... it is perceived by some that its for their own pocket sent message, I dont wash cars or carry laundry up stairs for my business, I offer service that most appreciate and I do turn down business.

Just because someone is working in the broker community doesnt mean you should discredit their opinions or comments based on this. imo

 

[cdr108]

i would value your comments more if you'd provide a more comprehensive breakdown of things instead of short blurbs.

investors (foreign and/or local) buyers are cited quite often, yet the industry doesn't keep data to back it up ... all anedoctal, which is fine.

based on your experience, what is the % of investor buyers .... local? foreign? where from? end-user? rentals?
what % dp are they putting down?
why buy as investment when the income would not cover costs unless 50% dp was required?

buying CDN r/e to 'park' money takes on several risks:
* market risk with a greater downside vs. upside potential in a nation (Canada and AUZ) that's considered overpriced by many economists
* F/X risk when buying/selling currencies, if the foreign investor is going to repatriate funds

 

[drewp]

I will vouch for Condo George on the strong rental market in Toronto. I regularly do leases and I can tell that this summer most of properties went in Multiple offers and over asking as well. Some examples I will give you is a unit at MLS leased last summer for 2150, this year listed at 2400, three offers were registered on the property and we had to go at 2450. A unit a Casa leased last year at 1350, this year leased at 1600 with two offers on the property. Another unit at 21 Nelson, listed at 2000 with 5 offers on the property finally leased at 2225. This is just a small example of many situations that went into multiple offers. There was very short supply this summer, and still during the fall and winter seasons.

 

[Condo George]

cdr. I understand what you are saying and respect it.

The above is part of my intro to investing in Toronto core condos vs other investments both local and international, when I meet and interact with potential investors and not all get to the table with me. Let me think about if I want to share my business plan and reasoning here.

The short blurb, , is because I am busy and want to state a point. I dont have time on my side right now, need balance in my life.

 

[redfirm]

I will vouch for Condo George on the strong rental market in Toronto. I regularly do leases and I can tell that this summer most of properties went in Multiple offers and over asking as well. Some examples I will give you is a unit at MLS leased last summer for 2150, this year listed at 2400, three offers were registered on the property and we had to go at 2450. A unit a Casa leased last year at 1350, this year leased at 1600 with two offers on the property. Another unit at 21 Nelson, listed at 2000 with 5 offers on the property finally leased at 2225. This is just a small example of many situations that went into multiple offers. There was very short supply this summer, and still during the fall and winter seasons.

Please provide more detail: size and current price of these units.

My feeling is that CN and CDR are right - unless you put down really really high dp there's no way you're making positive cash flow. But once your dp is high your return is low.

Rental market is good in terms of time required to find a renter, but not in terms of return you can make. All these investors George is mentioning are relying solelely on perpetual 8% price appreciation ...

 

[cdr108]

I will vouch for Condo George on the strong rental market in Toronto. I regularly do leases and I can tell that this summer most of properties went in Multiple offers and over asking as well. Some examples I will give you is a unit at MLS leased last summer for 2150, this year listed at 2400, three offers were registered on the property and we had to go at 2450. A unit a Casa leased last year at 1350, this year leased at 1600 with two offers on the property. Another unit at 21 Nelson, listed at 2000 with 5 offers on the property finally leased at 2225. This is just a small example of many situations that went into multiple offers. There was very short supply this summer, and still during the fall and winter seasons.

in addtion to redfirm's questions, weren't MLS and Casa as well as Boutique just occupying / registering last year?
and if they're like most condo projects, they were probably still under construction with many of the amenities not completed.

typically that means rents are lower to make up for the lack of facilities.
from the examples you cited, it appears they were leased at a ~10% discount last year to compensate tenants for living in a construction zone.

 

[wolfman]

that is correct.

 

[drewp]

I will also give examples of older buildings. 77 Carlton listed at 2350, two offers on the property leased at full price. 126 St. Patrick Street listed at 1900 leased at 2000 with 3 offers on the property. ROCP one bedroom listed at 1600 three offers on the property at 1650. The rental market is healthy in Toronto. There is so much demand for centrally located units.

That being said I believe investors are putting down a substantial downpayment to be in the plus when they rent their unit. Either rental rates will have to continue to increased rapidly like they did this year or preconstruction will stagnate at the average of 700 a square foot to catch up. As an end user it makes total sense now to purchase a resale condo.

 

[interested]

I'd like to pick up on the luxury market comment by CondoGeorge and the fact that the Ritz is not selling as well, a lot for sale, and some as low as $800/sq.ft. Granted they bought at $500-600. Also, my view as expressed before was that no opening windows and no outside space, 2 elevator rides were deterents in my view given that people can see the product. Also, large units make for expensive running costs (around 95 cents/sq.ft. x over 1200 sq.ft. minimum). That said, CG do you think luxury will plummet then since 4S is around $1500-1700/sq.ft. from Builder; and SL is at least $1200/sq.ft. with Trump in the same range.

 

[cdr108]

I will also give examples of older buildings. 77 Carlton listed at 2350, two offers on the property leased at full price. 126 St. Patrick Street listed at 1900 leased at 2000 with 3 offers on the property. ROCP one bedroom listed at 1600 three offers on the property at 1650. The rental market is healthy in Toronto. There is so much demand for centrally located units.

That being said I believe investors are putting down a substantial downpayment to be in the plus when they rent their unit. Either rental rates will have to continue to increased rapidly like they did this year or preconstruction will stagnate at the average of 700 a square foot to catch up. As an end user it makes total sense now to purchase a resale condo.

that's good. having a few offers at ask isn't unheard of, but i thought you were going to give us examples of substantial rent increases from last year.

when were these places rented? in august /september, right before the school rush?