simuls
Senior Member
This building started out around $650/ft in 2007 and as of a 15 months ago, in the middle of the recession, was selling for $800/ft from the developer. I thought it was waaaaay overpriced then and still do, although $900/ft is not outrageous considering the starting price 15 months ago and the price increases we've seen since then. While it might sell for that, I have no reservations in saying that whoever buys this will see it's price drop back to $700/ft, if not less, within 2 years and it'll take another 3-5 to reach up again, if that quickly at all. It is not a luxury building and when prices are around $1000/ft for Shangri la, Ritz, 4 Seasons, why would I buy here? None of the numbers in Toronto add up to the prices we've seen over the past year and condo inventory has already surged and that's still not including the vast majority of projects that will be completed in the core in the next 10 months - which at my last count numbered around 20 and should add another 7-8000 units to the mix (and I would expect a good 20% of that to go straight to market and another 20% to follow shortly after when it can't be rented to cover costs). I believe in the past two months we have gone from 3 months of inventory to 9 months of inventory. This will only increase over the summer (this heatwave will also dull sales) and I predict the opposite of what some realtors are saying and I think the fall will be exceptionally weak. It will be interesting to start comparing prices not vs. a year ago, but vs. the peak in April. I would expect we'll see median prices will have dropped already by August. Especially in the condo market. Remember, bubbles don't burst in a RE market, they slowly let air escape like a balloon. The US is now in it's 4th year of "bursting".