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Baby, we got a bubble!?

I don;t think that you are getting my point in regards to the vocabulary used in my discussion with ISYM.
You are holding too tight on a matter of shape and moreover you believe that a war is not needed when the other side just persist in their wrong actions.
I guess this is a cultural difference and I will stop here. There will be a day when the canadians will pay a heavy price for their excessive political correctness. It is actually happening. Anyway this is a different topic.


My initial comment was regarding sales numbers. I admitted that the prices went up this first half of the month.
There is just no way that my source of data could miss so many listings. something is fishy here!


Now that is what we should be concentrating on (what is bolded).

I agree Recharts that political correctness is not the way to go. However, I again emphasize one can make a point without resorting to rudeness and name calling. There is a middle ground.

We should hopefully get an explanation somehow on how your data, drewp's data, and MLS's are not correlating. That is more interesting to me and if it is shown that the discrepency is indeed MLS data being manipulated, then let that be shown too. If not, then let's understand why we are getting all these different numbers.
 
Interested, you're just too logical :)


Thank you Pink Lucy.

I would like some clarity on the real numbers in Toronto. Frankly, whether it is ISYM or Recharts who is correct is fine by me. I would just like to be able to critically evaluate what is going on in something in which I not only have an interest but have an investment in. It will also dictate what I do going forward and hence it holds some specific value.
 
Interested,
Thank you so much for helping to calm down the heat, bringing sanity and civility back to this thread.
 
Thank you Pink Lucy.

I would like some clarity on the real numbers in Toronto. Frankly, whether it is ISYM or Recharts who is correct is fine by me. I would just like to be able to critically evaluate what is going on in something in which I not only have an interest but have an investment in. It will also dictate what I do going forward and hence it holds some specific value.

you are missing the big picture here.
the point is not whether I am correct or ISYM is correct
The point is that the TREB data can not be trusted
 
you are missing the big picture here.
the point is not whether I am correct or ISYM is correct
The point is that the TREB data can not be trusted[/QUOTE]

I get it Recharts. Hence the comment that I would like the RAW data.

If you read my post 8109:

"However ISYM I am not sure it addresses whether the data is correct or not. Raw data before filtered by TREB or any other realty source is what I believe would be needed to answer the question once and for all. I am not saying TREB's data is right or wrong, simply that it is not the raw data."
 
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Interested, I did in fact answer your question, to the best of my ability and within the parameters I am legally limited to. It’s unfortunate that’s not acceptable to you however, some other Realtor is free to provide what you ask for, it just won’t be me.

You’ve not stated how the raw data is going to tell you whether it’s correct or not, complete or not, please explain.

I’m not aiming to fight with anyone either, and for each of us to have an opposing point of view does not mean anyone is aiming for a fight. I know you will object to what I say next, but I’m not going to sugarcoat it. As much as you want the raw data, powers bigger than you and me say you have no right to it for a host of reasons (see those links) and I don’t know how else to express to you other than as I have done, that we, as Realtors may not, unless we violate the Real Estate Business and Brokers Act, The PIPEDA and the contract we each have with the board - its TOS, cannot give it to you, in fact nor can the boards.

If I asked your condo board to give me a list of the rented suites in Shangri-la because I want to know exactly which ones are being rented and not just the aggregate, would they? It’s not that they can’t get the information it is that it is privacy protected information to which I have no right, not even if my client wanted to know who they will be living beside.

So then, would it be difficult for you to do as I suggest and have your Realtor sit with you and show you whatever you want? Because publishing it on the net isn’t the only way Interested can have of seeing it.

For a sale in Oakville to appear on two boards, it must be independently entered by a Realtor on the MLS system for each board. They are independent systems, and the results the boards produce are for the purpose of providing an informational report only which states the number of transactions/sales/listings processed through its independent board’s MLS system. So if I enter an Oakville listing on Oakville’s board system, and also on TREB’s board system, OMDREB publishes that this listing/sale was processed on its system and TREB does the same, but neither is claiming that the total sales for Oakville was 2. Here is the OMDREB’s report, note the source says: The Oakville, Milton and District Board, it doesn’t say all boards in Ontario with Oakville listings, ditto TREB.
http://www.omdreb.on.ca/market_watch/recap/2013-MR/January 2013 Market Watch Oakville.pdf

To determine the number of Oakville sales, it becomes necessary to know how many Oakville listings were placed via other boards that were not also placed on OMDREB and how many listings were placed on OMDREB that were not also placed on other boards. It appears as best as I can tell from CREA’s statements, that job falls to a process that takes place when each board reports to CREA which in turn aggregates and publishes the national stats.

As for independently auditing a board’s listings results, why does anyone seem to think this is should be required? They are a non-public entity whose only customers are Realtors and brokerages – not the public. A board’s report being statistical, is of a non-financial nature and is not a line item in the board’s actual financial statements. In fact, no private entity can be made to publicly disclose anything at all, not even their statistics and I think people just don’t put it together that boards chose to produce these listing statistics, with disclaimers, for informational purposes and all do come with a margin of error especially when a board as large as TREB has upwards of 30,000 non-employees entering the information that is turned into statistics.

But, some decide to claim that the boards and associations results are bogus and that proves that they need to be independently audited? Does it surprise you to learn that the CMHC is independently audited, yet there are those with no connection whatsoever to it who claim the results are bogus? Should they now go out and hire another independent auditor or just have every objector come in and verify the raw data for themself?

Maybe you can also explain to me how TREB or CREA can’t explain whatever it is you wish them to explain because it can hurt their membership? I’m a member and I’m baffled by that statement.

Anyway, I've given you my suggestions as to how to get answers independent of mine – your Realtor, RECO, Privacy Commissioner.
 
Drewp:
Sales are based on those reported as firm between Oct 1 and Oct 14 the criteria is to use the last update field 10/01/2013 to 10/14/2013 otherwise you’re not recognizing the ‘reported firm’ date.

I still get 582 condo apartments on original login and also new login. Feel free to pm and I'll give you my phone number so we can do the search again simultaneously if you wish.
 
ISYM.

I don't wish to be dragged into your and Recharts fight.

I would like raw data on sales, original prices, actual selling prices which can be genericized to not run afoul of Pipeda legislation. This is a convenient way to "hide". I remind you of all those who state "I can't discuss this as it is before the courts" as a means of delaying and not responding to questions. While I understand the need, it is a convenient excuse and allows one to circumvent true scrutiny. Having said that, in your position, I might well do the same but you must appreciate the frustration being on the other side of the equation.

Believe it or not ISYM, if you gave me all the raw data for an area in Toronto without the personalized information, I could come up with numbers that would be of significance in my view and free of bias. I know you are equally capable of doing the same thing.
You are asking us to trust the TREB numbers. I am saying to you that REaltors, TREB, and CREA have vested interests to protect. Hence, I am suggesting to you that while everything may be above board, asking me and others to trust that it is so and accept it as fact is beyond what I would be willing to do. I will evaluate it but there is enough concerns and questionable responses from Greg Klump and others in some of the releases and rebuffing of what are viewed as attacks to make me think that we are not getting the whole story. I may be wrong, but I believe this rightly or wrongly.

Also, in the US before the meltdown realtors were putting out data and telling people in the US that things were stable, and not going down as the numbers kept showing the opposite. You mean to tell me that if these same people had control of the data they would not have massaged it. They were clearly willing to mislead the public to protect their own interests. Why would I believe it would be different in Canada?

I hope Drewp and you can at least agree on what is going on with Treb's numbers and maybe at least clarify the inconsistency brought up there....though that will still not confirm that the data you are both comparing is in fact accurate.

Now with regard to your explantion about the Oakville/Toronto Board example. If Oakville enters a sale, and Toronto enters a sale on an Oakville house because it was listed on 2 boards....does that not result in an inflated Toronto sales figure (since there is a sale of a non Toronto house posted on the Toronto board?

As relates to auditing the results: if we can't get accurate information from the boards because it is the R/E industry's information (brokerages and realtors) then there needs to be in my opinion a government source that is accurate and unbiased to get this information to the rest of us. I would point out that the Real Estate association runs ads and uses these numbers to market to the public and presents this information as "fact". If it is to be in the public realm for public consumption, and I would strongly suggest it has been used by your industry for this exact purpose, then you have to accept the corresponding public scrutiny."

ISYM, I would like to cease any further discussion on these lines as we are not going to solve it.

I would love however to hear if the discrepencies could be explained. There may well be a purely innocent reason for them but in the absence of facts to confirm one will conclude erroneously probably in a negative fashion.
 
Interested, I am asking you again,

Why do you not call your Realtor and have them pull all the information that you want right before yor very eyes?

Is that not a reasonable suggestion and would it not give you the information that you seek?
 
ISYM.

I don't wish to be dragged into your and Recharts fight.

I would like raw data on sales, original prices, actual selling prices which can be genericized to not run afoul of Pipeda legislation. ...

This whole Pipeda thing is a complete bullshit
If they hope to sell you a house on a street they will send you sales reports going back 5 years ago if you ask
What is the difference between providing the info the way you requested and the way they do it piece by piece?
In the end if I want to find out for how much an idiot bought a condo in this bubble I can just pretend that I want to buy a unit in that building and ask for all the transactions in that building.
And yes they will have no remorse after disclosing "private information" as she pretends above
 
Because ISYM the realtor is going to pull the TREB data and while that will give me information it is not necessarily the correct RAW data which is what I would want.

ISYM, I use TREB data and others data, and my connections with people in the industry to form an opinion. I am just saying I would be happier if I could get either audited or information from what could potentially be a biased source. I am not saying the information is not accurate. I am saying it has the potential to be altered by those with a vested interest to do so.

Yes your suggestion is reasonable and if/when I am ready to either purchase or sell something, I will seek out the information from my realtor. I don't want to disturb her unnecessarily when it will not affect what I am presently doing. I do appreciate her time is valuable and not to be wasted due to my "desire" for info when it is not at the forefront.
 
Interested, I am asking you again,

Why do you not call your Realtor and have them pull all the information that you want right before yor very eyes?

Is that not a reasonable suggestion and would it not give you the information that you seek?

because his realtor does not stalk people on internet arguing with their data and calling them liars
because his realtor does not pretend that TREB sold exactly 582 condos between Oct 1 -Oct 14
since you got involved in this and you are attacking data posted by others have the decency and come with your data not with cartoon lines
like "Trust in me"
[video=youtube;F1ILPl5FQaM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1ILPl5FQaM[/video]
 
^^^
Recharts,
Loved the Junglebook video.
Good for a laugh.

I do not know a better illustration of the relation between a buyer and a real estate agent!
Metaphorically speaking everybody is represented there in all their aspects.
The naivety of the buyer,their snaky/sneaky tactics to talk you into buying no matter what, the RE agent's lingo, even the steps that you have to blindly take and that will take you downward are a very good metaphor for this situation
 
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From the Globe and Mail this week.


Toronto condo buyers take their pick Add to ...

CAROLYN IRELAND

The Globe and Mail

Published Thursday, Oct. 17 2013, 7:45 AM EDT

Last updated Thursday, Oct. 17 2013, 7:50 AM ED

People who are shopping around for a condo unit to buy in Toronto have lots to choose from these days.

Gleaming new buildings such as Clear Spirit in the Distillery District, Market Wharf near Front and Jarvis, and Charlie near King and Spadina have brought fresh supply to the market recently.

“There’s a lot of inventory to choose from,” says real estate agent Christopher Bibby of Sutton Group Associates.

Agents say the market for single-family houses is still moving along quite well, but condo units are taking longer to sell.

Mr. Bibby says the buyers are still out there, but he has noticed recently that the volume of showings has also slowed – especially compared with the spring.

“Buyers are just in no rush,” he says. Mr. Bibby recently sold a condo with two bedrooms and two bathrooms in a downtown building that’s considered highly desirable. It took three months to sell because there were 10 other two-bed, two-bathroom units for sale in the same building.

Economists at Capital Economics say housing starts in Canada have risen noticeably over the past six months or so because multi-unit buildings planned years ago are now under construction. But, the economists point out, housing starts are a lagging indicator of housing market conditions. They expect housing completions to drift higher over the coming year as more towers are ready for the first residents to move in.

Geon van der Wyst of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. says one of the most difficult issues for agents right now is persuading sellers to accept “the new reality.” With so much competition, he says, condo sellers have to be very careful not to set asking prices too high. Buyers are looking for what they perceive to be good value, he says, and they won’t even come forward with a low-ball offer if they think an asking price is too rich.

Mr. Bibby points to the example of the coveted DNA lofts at King and Shaw. In the past, agents would set an offer date and wait for multiple bids. Last spring a one-bedroom plus den was listed with an asking price of $379,000. It sold after four days for $420,000.

More recently Mr. Bibby says, a unit with the identical layout was listed for $399,000. It sold after two-and-a-half weeks on the market for $10,000 below asking.

“I feel the buyers are in the driver’s seat right now.”
 

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