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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Down (22%) again--TREB mid-month report: http://www.torontorealestateboard.com/consumer_info/market_news/news2010/pdf/nr_mid_month_0910.pdf

September 16, 2010 -- Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 2,623 sales through the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) during the first two weeks of September 2010. This represented a 22 per cent decrease compared to the 3,361 sales recorded during the same period in 2009.

Condo George: Your post above is the real reason I refuse to buy presales in the GTA. Until I'm either an agent or a developer, I'm staying away from the pyramid scam!
 
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Average prices from August seem stable, though. August: 411K, September 412K. 2,623 sales implies a downward trend, though. I wonder how many new listings there were.

Typical full month september sales are 7,000. 2,613 is pretty low (although it included the labour day period at the beginning of the month)

About prices, it's important to remember normal seasonal variances.http://guava.ca/?cat=3

Comparing aug to sept, 2004/2009, there is an average 3.7% increase.
2004 305k/321k
2005 323k/338k
2006 338k/349k
2007 368k/380k
2008 365k/368k
2009 388k/409k

Whereas comparing 2010 mid-month aug/sept we have $413k/$412k. A 0.2% decrease.

Seasonally adjusted this appears to be a 3.9% decrease? If so, that would be one of the biggest monthly drops, seasonally adjusted, in the history of toronto real estate. As an acknowledged mega-bear on Toronto RE, even I am surprised by this, and if someone can point out an error in my calculations please do so.

One thought, perhaps the seasonal uptick in Sept prices happens more in the latter half of the month? After labour day etc? I did a quick check on the midmonth figures from TREB's releases, and they seem to show the same seasonal variation as the full month. But even so, I'd suggest waiting until the full month figures are released.
 
Average prices from August seem stable, though. August: 411K, September 412K. 2,623 sales implies a downward trend, though. I wonder how many new listings there were.

Yes , I track these numbers and its not a good sign for supply, from June to Sept 5 there were about 15 new listings per day and the sold conditionals were more than the new listings, from Labour day onwards there has been avg 40 per day and sold conditionals about half of that.

Selling prices might be stable but net sales are down and listings appear to be going up.
 
An indicator I really like to watch that most do not is the rental numbers. I think that a rented unit translates into a happy investor in most cases wont be a seller, unless they think the market will tank, most believe the longer term view of our city is positive and to be quite frank alot of investors love Toronto core condos as opposed to stocks, gics, etc.

Gta rental figures during May to August 2010 TREB members reported 6712 leased condos apts and towns up 18 percent vs same period last yr, avg rents in all apt categories, with benchmark 2 bed rents averging $1937 up 3% recorded in 2009, some here spec that rents will tank with empty units driving the downward trend, well May to Aug #'s have not showed this....

I was posting here on the exhurberence I seen in the rentals numbers a few months back, glad that my posts on rents were correct, to build creditability with you all

"Many newly completed units are held by investors who have chosen to rent their units" the report said.
 
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Gta rental figures during May to August 2010 TREB members reported 6712 leased condos apts and towns up 18 percent vs same period last yr, avg rents in all apt categories, with benchmark 2 bed rents averging $1937 up 3% recorded in 2009, some here spec that rents will tank with empty units driving the downward trend, well May to Aug #'s have not showed this....

Central 1 bdrms up 1% yoy, 2 bdrms down slightly yoy, no specifics on Central 3 bdrns. Net of inflation, 1 & 2 bdrm prices both decreased.
http://www.torontorealestateboard.c...t_news/news2010/pdf/nr_rental_report_0910.pdf
 
An indicator I really like to watch that most do not is the rental numbers. I think that a rented unit translates into a happy investor in most cases wont be a seller, unless they think the market will tank, most believe the longer term view of our city is positive and to be quite frank alot of investors love Toronto core condos as opposed to stocks, gics, etc.

Gta rental figures during May to August 2010 TREB members reported 6712 leased condos apts and towns up 18 percent vs same period last yr, avg rents in all apt categories, with benchmark 2 bed rents averging $1937 up 3% recorded in 2009, some here spec that rents will tank with empty units driving the downward trend, well May to Aug #'s have not showed this....

I was posting here on the exhurberence I seen in the rentals numbers a few months back, glad that my posts on rents were correct, to build creditability with you all

"Many newly completed units are held by investors who have chosen to rent their units" the report said.


being selective of what the report says diminishes your credibility actually because from what i've seen you mostly promote dt core condos.

from the TREB report,
"in the central districts ...
the average annual rate of rent growth was below the rate of inflation for one-bedroom and two-bedroom unit types.

Members reported rental transactions for 2,468 one-bedroom and 1,534 two-bedroom units, which leased for an average of $1,520 and $2,115 per month, respectively. The average one bedroom rent was up one per cent year-over-year, while the average rent for two bedroom units declined slightly.

124 townhouses were rented in TREB's Central Districts. Three-bedroom units rented for an average of $2,983 per month - up 14 per cent from last year."
 
Typical full month september sales are 7,000. 2,613 is pretty low (although it included the labour day period at the beginning of the month)

About prices, it's important to remember normal seasonal variances.http://guava.ca/?cat=3

Comparing aug to sept, 2004/2009, there is an average 3.7% increase.
2004 305k/321k
2005 323k/338k
2006 338k/349k
2007 368k/380k
2008 365k/368k
2009 388k/409k

Whereas comparing 2010 mid-month aug/sept we have $413k/$412k. A 0.2% decrease.

Seasonally adjusted this appears to be a 3.9% decrease? If so, that would be one of the biggest monthly drops, seasonally adjusted, in the history of toronto real estate. As an acknowledged mega-bear on Toronto RE, even I am surprised by this, and if someone can point out an error in my calculations please do so.

One thought, perhaps the seasonal uptick in Sept prices happens more in the latter half of the month? After labour day etc? I did a quick check on the midmonth figures from TREB's releases, and they seem to show the same seasonal variation as the full month. But even so, I'd suggest waiting until the full month figures are released.

These are interesting anaylsis.
The only consolation that I have for 2010 figures comparing to the other years is that in this year the demand was "pulled back" to the first half of the year due to the factors like mortgage requirements and HST etc. The other such example comes to mind when couple of years ago, LTT came in to effect.

In my opinion, the market is just "stabilizing" (as opposed to being in a "bubble") after an extended run in the first half of the year. Another factor is the perception that most people had in early part of the year, which was that the interest rates will be going "through the roof" after June/July 2010. However, the current analysis is that the rates will not be going too high in near future. (as a matter of fact mortgage rates, both fixed and variable are decling) So people are not in too much of a hurry to jump in housing market (as they were early in the year). People are just careful (not scared) now...

Since the fundamentals of the canadian economy are showing good signes...including most of the jobs lost in the recession being recoverred already...(this supports the housing demand)

I don't think it is in anyone's interest (least the government) to raise the rates or to make the lending requirements harsh enough to drop the demand (and to go back to recession etc etc)
 
These are interesting anaylsis.
The only consolation that I have for 2010 figures comparing to the other years is that in this year the demand was "pulled back" to the first half of the year due to the factors like mortgage requirements and HST etc. The other such example comes to mind when couple of years ago, LTT came in to effect.

In my opinion, the market is just "stabilizing" (as opposed to being in a "bubble") after an extended run in the first half of the year. Another factor is the perception that most people had in early part of the year, which was that the interest rates will be going "through the roof" after June/July 2010. However, the current analysis is that the rates will not be going too high in near future. (as a matter of fact mortgage rates, both fixed and variable are decling) So people are not in too much of a hurry to jump in housing market (as they were early in the year). People are just careful (not scared) now...

Since the fundamentals of the canadian economy are showing good signes...including most of the jobs lost in the recession being recoverred already...(this supports the housing demand)

I don't think it is in anyone's interest (least the government) to raise the rates or to make the lending requirements harsh enough to drop the demand (and to go back to recession etc etc)


based on historical RE appreciation %s, the past 15 years have gone up more than the historical trend.
that is why many here believe we are in a bubble.

Canada's market and realtors reaction is mirroring what happened in the US several years ago.

RE: CDN economy .. there was a report from TD that cut their forecast for 2010, 2011 GDP by 1 point.
 
Chinese Bet on London Real Estate
By JULIA WERDIGIER and BETTINA WASSENER
Published: September 17, 2010
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LinkedinDiggMixxMySpaceYahoo! BuzzPermalink. LONDON — Naomi Minegishi, 21, a Japanese woman who lived in China for 10 years, recently joined the London property broker Felicity J. Lord. Fluent in Mandarin, Ms. Minegishi was hired not for her experience in real estate sales — she is studying management at a London university — but for her language ability.

With her help, the agency recently sold four three-bedroom apartments in a new development for £320,000, or about $500,000, each to a different Chinese buyer and solely on the basis of photos and floor plans. The new construction is close to the Olympic stadium, and the investors are betting that real estate prices will rise before the Games in 2012.

Chinese clients, Ms. Minegishi said, are a dream. “They are wealthy, they pay in cash, and they’re looking for good value.”

The London property market might have shown signs of cooling recently, but investors from mainland China and Hong Kong are busier than ever — bidding, for example, on luxury apartments in the fashionable Knightsbridge district down the road from Harrods as well as new homes close to the Canary Wharf financial district.

In some parts of London, mainland Chinese investors have already replaced those from Russia and the Middle East as the busiest real estate buyers with deep pockets, looking for trophy assets and pushing up prices, some brokers say.

Buyers from mainland China are a tiny but growing proportion of purchasers of high-end real estate in London — accounting for 5 percent of all purchases by foreigners of London properties valued from £500,000 to £1 million this year, compared with 0.5 percent a year earlier, according to Savills, a real estate agency. Europeans still make up the largest proportion, Savills says, though it does not break down buyers by country.

There were 115,000 Chinese living in London in 2007, compared with 80,000 six years earlier, the most recent figures from the British government showed.

Unlike clients from Russia and the Middle East, however, few Chinese buyers are looking for London apartments to live in themselves. A majority of them are seeking investments in a real estate market they perceive as more stable than their own and with a plan to receive steady rental income for years, Ms. Minegishi said.

For wealthy Asians, fears that governments may impose more constraints on red-hot local property markets have made investments abroad more attractive. Rapid growth and easy credit caused real estate prices in many parts of Asia to rise sharply late last year: Hong Kong luxury home prices have jumped 45 percent since 2009, according to Savills.

Last month, to prevent prices from overheating, Singapore raised the down payment required for many home purchases. The step followed similar measures in mainland China and Hong Kong this year. By contrast, prices dropped more than 10 percent across Britain after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, although the prices of exclusive properties in London held up better than those in the rest of the country, helped by foreign buyers. Prices of high-end London real estate rose 8.75 percent in 2009 compared with a drop of 2.25 percent in the southwest of Britain, according to Savills.

Not surprisingly, the property industry in Britain is retooling to meet the Chinese demand. Brokers are hiring Mandarin speakers like Ms. Minegishi, as well as Cantonese speakers to cater to people from Hong Kong. Savills organized a seminar in Shanghai in July to teach 100 clients how to buy real estate in London, and a rival agency, Hamptons International, opened an office in Hong Kong with four local employees about two months ago.

Some London developers, meanwhile, are omitting the number four in new buildings because four is considered unlucky in Chinese culture. “Most developers in London are including China in their marketing efforts,” said Matthew Tack, a director at Hamptons in London. “They’d be silly not to.”

The increase in transactions highlights a gradual shift in wealth to Asia, including mainland China. Free of the debt levels that are still haunting Western households and governments, most of Asia began to recover rapidly from the global economic downturn last year.

And although a large majority of Asians still struggle to make ends meet, the booming growth has catapulted many into the ranks of the wealthy and superwealthy. In mainland China alone, the number of people with assets worth more than 10 million renminbi, or $1.5 million, rose 6.1 percent, to 875,000, in a year, according to the Hurun Research Institute in Shanghai.

Chinese citizens need to get approval from their local authorities to invest more than the equivalent of $50,000 a year overseas. But many wealthy Chinese work around the restrictions with the help of trust funds and foreign bank accounts, real estate brokers say.

Because of those rules, most of the Chinese buyers pay cash to minimize the paper trail. None of the London brokers interviewed for this article were willing to disclose the identities of buyers or introduce them to a reporter.

Although Chinese are becoming more active in many overseas markets, including the United States and Continental Europe, London remains highly popular, brokers say, for a variety of reasons. For one, Britain has almost no restrictions on whether foreigners can own real estate and a fairly fluid rental market, which is attractive to buyers seeking income from their properties.

Cultural issues, especially the Chinese emphasis on education, also favor the acquisition of London addresses.

Education is generally the largest budget item in a Chinese household, and many families hope to send their children to top universities in Britain, which tend to admit more foreign students than top universities in the United States, said Jeff Cao, head of the China sector for Think London, a government-supported agency that helps attract foreign investment to the city. The number of Chinese students at London universities rose 9 percent, to 948, last year from 867 a year earlier, according to the Universities and Colleges Admissions Service.

For Chinese buyers in London, Mr. Cao said, the idea is to find apartments big enough to provide the children with more comfortable accommodation than existing student dormitories and that also have spare rooms that can be rented out. Once the children graduate, their parents rent out the whole apartment.

One mainland Chinese investor who owns real estate in London and elsewhere said his London investments were his most lucrative. “I bought a flat for my daughter’s use when she was studying in London and other flats I have rented out or sold,” Mr. Lai, the owner, who declined to give his first name to protect his privacy, wrote in an e-mail. “The U.K. traditionally has a very good legal structure with good law and order,” he wrote. “That, together with the city’s financial institutions and the British people’s love for owning their own homes, makes the property market extremely attractive.”

Joseph Lau, a Hong Kong billionaire, recently spent £33 million on a six-floor mansion in Eaton Square in London, an address he shares with the Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich. Mr. Lau’s son, Lau Ming-wai, studied at the London School of Economics and then worked for Goldman Sachs in London.

Real estate brokers who cater to Chinese customers say it is unclear whether and when the appetite from China will start to ebb, but there is no indication yet that it has.

Nick Vestey, a sales executive at the Knight Frank brokerage firm in Knightsbridge, said one Chinese client had spent more than £17 million on a four-story, five-bedroom house not far from Buckingham Palace that included a gym, a passenger elevator and five vaults.

Another client “flew in from China for a day,” Mr. Vestey said. “We picked her up from the airport and showed her eight properties in four hours on a Sunday afternoon.”
 
New listings slowed latter part of this week as compared to first 2 weeks of Sept, week immediately after labour day was flooded with new listings as I spec most probably waited till after labour day to list. We also had good news from Lanterra Developments allowing for assignments to be listed on mls, this will tighten the supply of for sale immed after final registration but will create new supply now, this is my mind is a good thing as slow supply coming to market is better than the gates opening right after final reg. So we are seeing supply coming on from Maple Leaf Sq and from Neptune Condos now where are we did not prior to Sept 9. Maple Leaf sq has only 12 units for rent last I chkd, $2500 to $7500 everytime I am there I cant wait till hockey and basketball season can only bring exposure to the area. Go have a beer in the sportsbar, you will be amazed.

my call was the last 2 weeks in Sept will be strong so lets see if my guess is correct, cheers......
 
For those who want to know whether I have made a decision on Yonge and Front, yes I am promoting and buying at Yonge and Front Backstage on the Esplanade, thats about all I can say at this time.
 

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