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Baby, we got a bubble!?

Condo George said:
Yes , I track these numbers and its not a good sign for supply, from June to Sept 5 there were about 15 new listings per day and the sold conditionals were more than the new listings, from Labour day onwards there has been avg 40 per day and sold conditionals about half of that.
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You're a real estate agent. Don't you want there to be more product to buy/sell?

In my opinion more supply is a very healthy thing for the market because it will eventually cause prices to drop precipitously and flush out the opportunistic traders. This will ultimately help the market regain stability which is in the best interest of the people of the city. Condos were flying off the hook in Dubai for years but from what I hear now the place is a ghost town. A city needs reasonably affordable housing and a strong local employment base to thrive. Not endless flipper schemes.

What do I know though- I'm just an 1,800 ft. tower looking down on all you ants!
 
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simuls said:
In the last 8 days, I have received no fewer than 8 offers of discounted pre-construction. When looking vs. old price plans that I have for these places, these are not the typical "we've raised the price and are now giving it back", but real discounts that are being offered to the general public (not just brokers) and my bet is that you could get even more. I'm impressed that George is being so upfront about the flood of supply that's coming online in the past 10 days. My sources, who've been in the industry for 30 years, are not terrified, they've seen it before and knew it was coming, but are still a little beside themselves with open house but no one coming, etc. We're down 8% from peak in April in Toronto, nationally the increase is 0% year over year for the month of August. This could get very very ugly, very very fast. God I hope I'm wrong!
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Search torontomike$$, his post on loft rec to find out a bit about me, sim honesty / knowledge about my market is why I am a bit successful as my investor pool knows, I send out good and bad articles and yes walking away from 6 figure commissions to take care of my clients first, I mean that! Thanks for your comment, I usually get trashed here by most lol
 
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CN Tower said:
You're a real estate agent. Don't you want there to be more product to buy/sell?

In my opinion more supply is a very healthy thing for the market because it will eventually cause prices to drop precipitously and flush out the opportunistic traders. This will ultimately help the market regain stability which is in the best interest of the people of the city. Condos were flying off the hook in Dubai for years but from what I hear now the place is a ghost town. A city needs reasonably affordable housing and a strong local employment base to thrive. Not endless flipper schemes.

What do I know though- I'm just an 1,800 ft. tower looking down on all you ants!
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lol the last part;)
 
Condo George said:
Search torontomike$$, his post on loft rec to find out a bit about me, sim honesty / knowledge about my market is why I am a bit successful as my investor pool knows
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lol to the real estate agent with the 'investor pool'. No surer sign of market correction tremors. Reminds me of the famous Rockefeller shoe shine boy story or the cabbie in Miami who was boasting to me that his brother-in-law convinced him to buy 3 condos on the Gulf Coast back in 2005 and flip them on completion for a bundle. At least in that instance all the guy lost was his deposit. In Canada the recourse lending could easily bankrupt you.
 
CN Tower said:
lol to the real estate agent with the 'investor pool'. No surer sign of market correction tremors. Reminds me of the famous Rockefeller shoe shine boy story or the cabbie in Miami who was boasting to me that his brother-in-law convinced him to buy 3 condos on the Gulf Coast back in 2005 and flip them on completion for a bundle. At least in that instance all the guy lost was his deposit. In Canada the recourse lending could easily bankrupt you.
Click to expand...

Same investor pool you speak of has made alot of money being there, some even 7 figures CN, then there are others out there that simply watch the opportunities go by now arent there
 
simuls said:
In the last 8 days, I have received no fewer than 8 offers of discounted pre-construction. When looking vs. old price plans that I have for these places, these are not the typical "we've raised the price and are now giving it back", but real discounts that are being offered to the general public (not just brokers) and my bet is that you could get even more. I'm impressed that George is being so upfront about the flood of supply that's coming online in the past 10 days. My sources, who've been in the industry for 30 years, are not terrified, they've seen it before and knew it was coming, but are still a little beside themselves with open house but no one coming, etc. We're down 8% from peak in April in Toronto, nationally the increase is 0% year over year for the month of August. This could get very very ugly, very very fast. God I hope I'm wrong!
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Sim, although we both have different views, judging from your posts there is a mutual respect ( now dont tell me to get a room lol ), of the 6 or 7 sites that launched in the core this yr, I only promoted 1 of them Ice Condos, there were alot of them that we not a 10 in my opinion so I passed on them, now keep in mind if you didnt get first in at your sites that you have plans for, the builder might have spiked them to lure you in so that you are thinking you get huge $ off but in reality you are paying the same or more than the intial launch, the intial launch is the best buy op, I dont know about the future but it has been in the past.

There are 2 other sites on my radar that offer the potential of being a 10 ( Bo Derek ) to some of us that have a few yrs on us, that is Yonge and Front Backstage and Bayside.

Got to go....
 
Condo George said:
It may not get as bad as some think....

http://www.thestar.com/yourhome/realestate/article/861342--canadian-home-sales-up-in-august
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the article in full ...


Canadian home sales up in August

September 15, 2010
Tony Wong
BUSINESS REPORTER


Despite all the bubble talk, Canadian home sales are showing signs of resiliency, gaining for the first time in five months.

Sales of existing homes rose 4.1 per cent in August over the previous month. This is the first monthly increase since March, according to figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association Wednesday.

Most of the gains were in Ontario and British Columbia, accounting for the bulk of the improvement in sales.

However, CREA said they did not expect the trend to continue.

“The hangover from accelerated sales purchases is likely to persist over the rest of the year,” said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump.

Average prices however, continued their steep downward trend, and back to year-ago levels.

The average price of a home at $324,928 is on par with the $324,843 recorded last August, meaning for the first time this year prices have not seen a year over year monthly increase.

“Increases are shrinking in Canada’s most active and priciest markets,” said CREA.

The influential Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development said in their annual review of the Canadian economy this week that housing prices were still too high and more government intervention might be needed in the mortgage market.

However, CREA president Georges Pahud said the market was already correcting itself and no intervention was needed.

“Rising interest rates and a projected slowdown in job growth means that the Canadian housing market is expected to continue to cool,” said Pahud. “This is overlooked in recent commentary that further changes to Canada’s mortgage regulation is needed. A further tightening of regulations could negatively impact Canada’s softening housing market and consumer confidence.”


=======

if CREA doesn't believe the sales trend will continue, then you know we're in trouble.

prices are already back to August 2009 levels and decelerating quickly.
 
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Condo George said:
Same investor pool you speak of has made alot of money being there, some even 7 figures CN, then there are others out there that simply watch the opportunities go by now arent there
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as a realtor, i don't think the decrease in prices will affect you much as long as sellers are flexible and realistic with their pricing since a 2.5% commission (or 5% if double-ended) is minimal ($250/500 for every $10K) compared to the ten's of thousands the seller will have to sacrifice.
 
cdr108 said:
as a realtor, i don't think the decrease in prices will affect you much as long as sellers are flexible and realistic with their pricing since a 2.5% commission (or 5% if double-ended) is minimal ($250/500 for every $10K) compared to the ten's of thousands the seller will have to sacrifice.
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Agreed cdr, but I am an investor too buying multi units at the sites I sell, so I too will hurt if we get a big downtick, keep in mind those who purchased off plans at the first buy op are heavily in the green at most sites, not all, on paper anyways, I know its a paper gain.......
 
The condo buy process in Toronto core condos launch.......

1. Friends and family of the builders
2. Platinum brokers only ( thats me )
3. VIP brokers
4. General broker population
5. pre registrants on line or sign calls
6. public opening

Usually there is a spike in pricing after each event, so you see waiting till the public opening to buy may not be a best strategy, some here may think because the builder is not using a broker the builder will give them a better price , in lieu of commission payment to the broker, that is not true, in the past it has not worked this way, I dont know about the future. IMO who cares what the broker makes, as long as he/she is getting you best units at the earliest event, but its up to you all, you are the buyers. I am just sharing this info as there maybe a mis perception of the Toronto Condo buy process at launches. This is the truth folks. I know some here are hung up are broker commissions we all have a job to do and we all want our cheque, no matter what we do for a living, maybe some should consider becoming a realtor its not an easy field let me tell you.
 
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