Automobile City

[scarberiankhatru]

Glen, I'm not going to respond to the individual points in your circular argument because they're all wrong (especially those on LRT, a topic about which you are greatly misinformed...and, no, I don't support the indiscriminate building of LRT - go look at any transportation thread from the past year for proof).

I suggest you go take a look at what Metrolinx and MoveOntario are planning. Did you ever stop to think that maybe the TTC hasn't planned transit in the 905 because it is the *Toronto* Transit Commission?

Also, please go look at a map: how can we, for example, extend the Spadina subway to all those jobs in Vaughan without going through the 416?

And, please, would everyone stop talking about declining school enrollment: half of Brampton's census tracts (and half of Milton, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, etc.) have already started losing population and most of the 905's schools will see declining enrollment in a few years. I guarantee it!

 

[Chuck]

And, please, would everyone stop talking about declining school enrollment: half of Brampton's census tracts (and half of Milton, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, etc.) have already started losing population and most of the 905's schools will see declining enrollment in a few years. I guarantee it!

So true! I grew up around Thornhill Square, and my former census tract had a population decrease of over 5% in the 2006 census. Just like what is happenning in more central areas, condos and infill are being added to make up for the decline.

I think that this thread is filled with a whole lot of pointless banter. It's your own opinion whether you most support transit improvements downtown, midtown, or in the suburbs. Either way, the GTA's transit and road network was sized for a city region of 3 million people - not today's 5 million, and not the future's 8 million or more. Transportation improvements need to occur throughout the entire region because everything was already at capacity 20 years ago.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

I think that this thread is filled with a whole lot of pointless banter.

Well, this is the internet...

 

[Glen]

Glen, I'm not going to respond to the individual points in your circular argument because they're all wrong (especially those on LRT, a topic about which you are greatly misinformed...and, no, I don't support the indiscriminate building of LRT - go look at any transportation thread from the past year for proof).

This makes we wonder if you have been following anything I have said. Recall my comment about waking me up when the TTC relinquishes control over transit decisions? Adding more, as you said fiefdoms, does not and will not give rise to a seamless system. Consolidating them under one operator will, it is just that the TTC will fight tooth and nail against it.

I suggest you go take a look at what Metrolinx and MoveOntario are planning. Did you ever stop to think that maybe the TTC hasn't planned transit in the 905 because it is the *Toronto* Transit Commission?

Hence my comment "The TTC does not want to build transit to facilitate outward flows. They would much rather build a Jane St. LRT than extend the subway to Vaughan. My comments have been tempered by the reality of the TTC's M.O"

Also, please go look at a map: how can we, for example, extend the Spadina subway to all those jobs in Vaughan without going through the 416?

See above.

And, please, would everyone stop talking about declining school enrollment: half of Brampton's census tracts (and half of Milton, Mississauga, Richmond Hill, etc.) have already started losing population and most of the 905's schools will see declining enrollment in a few years. I guarantee it!

Pages 7 and 8 of this report show that to be patently false.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Glen:

Scarberian said half of the census tracts in the municipalities he mentioned are losing populations, as per http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2006/Maps/ThematicMaps/CMA_CT_Maps/English/Toronto_PopDwell_Ec-1.pdf, not the municipalities as a whole - which is what the boundaries in p. 7 of the file you've linked to shows. In addition, the map in p. 8 of the file shows the numerical population change, not percentage change. Such a decline has to do with the lifecycle of the neighoburhood, which is related to when it's built (especially in suburban areas).

Let's look at the maps from Statscan I've posted - where are the areas with population decline in the 905? Just take Mississauga as an example - everything south of 403/Eglinton (with the exception of MCC/Port Credit); Meadowvale - mind telling me when are these areas, particularly the subdivisions, built up? What similarities does these areas have with some of the resident-losing subdivisions in inner-suburban belt of Toronto?

Again, let's not talk about stats if you can't handle it.

AoD

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Glen/suv (you're probably the same person), until Miller (+ Giambrone + De Baeremaeker + Munro, etc.) got involved and dreamt up the half-baked Transfer City plan, the Spadina extension was on the TTC's books. With the Spadina extension now rolling after being adopted by York Region and the provincial government, what's wrong with the city considering an LRT on Jane? The many, many people being left behind on platforms, bus bays, and on the street as overloaded vehicles roll by is undeniable proof that expansions are warranted.

Here's a statement that will blow your mind: any transit line that brings people from outer residences to central jobs can take people from central residences to outer jobs.

 

[Glen]

Glen:

Scarberian said half of the census tracts in the municipalities he mentioned are losing populations, as per http://geodepot.statcan.ca/Diss2006/Maps/ThematicMaps/CMA_CT_Maps/English/Toronto_PopDwell_Ec-1.pdf, not the municipalities as a whole - which is what the boundaries in p. 7 of the file you've linked to shows. In addition, the map in p. 8 of the file shows the numerical population change, not percentage change. Such a decline has to do with the lifecycle of the neighoburhood, which is related to when it's built (especially in suburban areas).

Let's look at the maps from Statscan I've posted - where are the areas with population decline in the 905? Just take Mississauga as an example - everything south of 403/Eglinton (with the exception of MCC/Port Credit); Meadowvale - mind telling me when are these areas, particularly the subdivisions, built up? What similarities does these areas have with some of the resident-losing subdivisions in inner-suburban belt of Toronto?

Again, let's not talk about stats if you can't handle it.

AoD

As always you miss the point. One major difference in the 905 areas it is a cycle. In Toronto it is a death spiral.

 

[doady]

Demographic transistion: the whole developed world is in the later stages, 905 or 416 it makes no difference. Look it up.

 

[Panzerfaust]

As always you miss the point. One major difference in the 905 areas it is a cycle. In Toronto it is a death spiral.

And thus you lose all credibility. Want to point out this death cycle you speak of? At least he provided hard evidence, what do you have? A bunch of conjecture and unproven facts that, for all we know, you made up. At least link to a study or something that shows Toronto's population is in a "death spiral". Maybe then we'll take you seriously.

Oh what the hell and I saying, nobody will ever take you seriously at this rate

 

[Glen]

Glen/suv (you're probably the same person), until Miller (+ Giambrone + De Baeremaeker + Munro, etc.) got involved and dreamt up the half-baked Transfer City plan, the Spadina extension was on the TTC's books. With the Spadina extension now rolling after being adopted by York Region and the provincial government, what's wrong with the city considering an LRT on Jane? The many, many people being left behind on platforms, bus bays, and on the street as overloaded vehicles roll by is undeniable proof that expansions are warranted.

Welcome to 2008.(Gunn is gone BTW)

Here's a statement that will blow your mind: any transit line that brings people from outer residences to central jobs can take people from central residences to outer jobs.

Which would only work if it there was further routes at the 905 end.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

If effects of this death spiral are things like Ward 23's 60% population growth since 1996, then bring on the death spiral! All it takes is rezoning.

Welcome to 2007: the Spadina extension and other regional transit lines were taken out of Toronto's hands in 2007.

 

[suv]

Demographic transistion: the whole developed world is in the later stages, 905 or 416 it makes no difference. Look it up.

Actually, this is the clearest truth told yet.

@Scarberiankhat
Rest assured Glen and I are two different people. I think that you would allude to the idea that more than one person can have a 'slightly' different opinion from you, speaks to your vastly overrated sense of importance, and your righteousness.

Generally speaking, we all agree public transit is vastly important. I believe we are generally on the same page and the quirk of semantics and geography and reading population trends are throwing this off.

Additionally, while it was nice to make a comment or three, it is time to bid adieu. Principally that to have a slightly different take from the Borg mentality by most here is greeted with riotus selective data quoting. To be called a newbie troll or other form of derision. I'll leave the left to its own quagmire.

So adieu to youh and youh and youh. Time to fill up that suv, turn the tunes on , drop the windows and enjoy the sunshine. But first....Ocho Rios...

 

[ShonTron]

Actually, this is the clearest truth told yet.

@Scarberiankhat
Rest assured Glen and I are two different people. I think that you would allude to the idea that more than one person can have a 'slightly' different opinion from you, speaks to your vastly overrated sense of importance, and your righteousness.

It's true - they are not the same person. We mods can check that anyway. Just because they might think alike on issues, they are not necessarily the same.

If that were the case, I'd be prone to think that scarberiankhatru and unimaginative were the same person for their views on Transit City, or that Urbanshocker and andreapalladio were the same person for their love of Opera and Clewes.

 

[Glen]

If effects of this death spiral are things like Ward 23's 60% population growth since 1996, then bring on the death spiral! All it takes is rezoning.

Your right. Rezone from ICI to residential. Penny wise, pound foolish though.

Take a look at the census map again. In the 905 areas it follows the typical patterns. In Toronto, there are many areas that are still waiting for the corresponding rebound, even though they are past due. I lived in one of them ( 0311.02 ) and have a intimate knowledge from those whom work and still live in the area. Most servicing immigrants. Where I currently live, a slightly newer neighbourhood, has already begun (just) the replacement phase. The demographics are trending younger again. Schools that had protracted periods of enrollment decline have had stabilized and even slightly increasing numbers.

 

[scarberiankhatru]

Congratulations on your lack of a sense of humour, suv. FYI, we've had a rash of multiple account posters and bizarro posters lately...this thread's intersection of transit and development makes it fertile ground for the flamewars that tend to attract such posters.

I find it both highly amusing and completely ridiculous that I've been cited for a Borg mentality - I rarely agree with anybody! For starters, I voted for Pitfield

Clearly, people aren't all on the same page re: the importance of transit. Glen believes that the TTC shouldn't expand at all (even though expansion in the 416 is a prerequisite to serving 905 jobs, not to mention the backlog of people that get left behind on platforms and at the side of the road).

Your right. Rezone from ICI to residential. Penny wise, pound foolish though.

Take a look at the census map again. In the 905 areas it follows the typical patterns. In Toronto, there are many areas that are still waiting for the corresponding rebound, even though they are past due. I lived in one of them ( 0311.02 ) and have a intimate knowledge from those whom work and still live in the area. Most servicing immigrants. Where I currently live, a slightly newer neighbourhood, has already begun (just) the replacement phase. The demographics are trending younger again. Schools that had protracted periods of enrollment decline have had stabilized and even slightly increasing numbers.

Actually, the rezoning has been from bungalows to townhouses and condos, and from 1 storey retail to condos and offices with retail at street level...jobs have been created. There's plenty of land left for office buildings should they be wanted and the only prime office land "lost" that I'm aware of is the old Imperial Oil site. It is extremely pound wise to build condos on transit lines - many of the jobs in the 905 are nearly impossible to serve with viable transit lines that people will want to take.

Feel free to sift through census data to find a few tracts that are defying cohort trends and the demographic transition doady mentioned (anecdotal evidence doesn't cut it since everyone else has as much random intimate knowledge as you to use). On the internet, one exception out of 100 cases is worth its weight in gold. Plenty of Toronto neighbourhoods/schools have climbing numbers of school kids...the 905 is not immune to demographic change. Parts of Toronto were only more susceptible to school closures because schools were overbuilt in the 60s-80s period - earlier and more recent schools tend to be larger, greatly reducing the chances that they'll be closed.