picard102
Senior Member
I've completed several surveys on this election, none by phone.
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2022 43rd Ontario general election (June 2, 2022)
- Thread starter W. K. Lis
- Start date
old boy
Senior Member
2016 for Trump, not so much of this thinking now, I think. Large numbers, around 38% still support the PC's according to the latest polls I've read, and it seems pretty rock solid mirroring last provincial election. So, a minority of the people of Ontario elects a majority again.
John_Dee
Active Member
I've had similar thoughts to these. It would certainly explain things. If the Liberals are cynical enough - and we all know they are - I could see them conceding this election in favor of waiting for next time, anticipating a landslide after the electorate has had yet another 4 of years of dealing with Ford. Chances are he'll be truly hated by then in a way that he isn't now. And the neoliberals running the LPC are marching in lockstep with the Tories economically. It's not like they have anything to be concerned about by what the provincial Cons do in the years to come.
Sigh. I'll almost certainly be voting for the Libs myself, as little as I want to. The NDP are useless and the Greens are even worse. And therein lies the rub: Times like this, in which all legitimate political parties are viewed with suspicion and contempt by the general electorate tend to benefit politicians like Ford. It's honestly shocking that a man as openly crooked and corrupt as Ford is on the fast track to getting re-elected. At first, I didn't think he'd make it past a one-term stint as Premiere; the only thing I disagree with Admiral Beez in the above quote is this election being unwinnable for the Libs. I thought it was eminently winnable for them...and then they put up Homer Simpson as Party leader. Thanks, guys. Much appreciated.
afransen
Senior Member
I will be voting Liberal. I am not really strongly preferring LPO over PCO, but want there to be a somewhat effective opposition and government in waiting.
zang
Senior Member
Didn't say they were, which is why I prefaced about it being anecdotal. But I've seen shifts from friends and family still living in the Dufferin-Caledon riding. But what would I know? Apparently I'm in my own little urban voting bubble.
No, it's one of several outlined reasons. Young people are a fast growing progressive voter block, and quite frankly aren't well represented in polls. This isn't new information (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...when-fewer-people-are-available-to-be-polled/)
Northern Light
Superstar
A little factoid from Polling Canada on twitter, looking at the lead the PCs have over their nearest rivals according to each pollster's most recent poll:
Note here that the bottom 2 would indicate a probable minority; all the others would have the probability of a PC majority.
Note here that the bottom 2 would indicate a probable minority; all the others would have the probability of a PC majority.
Richard White
Senior Member
The sense I'm getting is we are looking at a PC supermajority tomorrow at or around 100 seats.
adma
Superstar
I think their cynicism is such that they were *really* running to repatriate their "rightful" Official Opposition status from the NDP--and yet, at least as regards seat numbers, that's turning out to be far from the sure bet they were hoping for. That is, they're playing the "many-time loser leader" gambit to the hilt in order to force the issue--and yet the problem w/the ONDP isn't that they're weak, it's that for OLP purposes, they're not weak *enough*. They're still lodged in the low-to-mid-20s w/all those incumbent advantages in place. If I were a Liberal partisan, I'd think of Andrea's Dippers to be a little like a cockroach...
Admiral Beez
Superstar
I agree. It’s Mike Harris in 1995 again.
Richard White
Senior Member
It's just common sense...
Johnny Au
Senior Member
There’s always an alternative, as seen in front of a house on Fairleigh Crescent between Marlee and the Allen on May 31, 2022:
Unlike most politicians, Darth Vader is most likely to keep his promise.
Oh, and go out and vote, even if you prefer a fictional character to lead this province! We don’t judge!
Unlike most politicians, Darth Vader is most likely to keep his promise.
Oh, and go out and vote, even if you prefer a fictional character to lead this province! We don’t judge!
adma
Superstar
*That'd* be doubtful, mainly because a whole lot of seats are really more a matter of NDP vs Lib horse-trading. Unless you *seriously* believe that Mainstreet poll that showed the Tories in serious contention in Beaches-East York...
Richard White
Senior Member
Mmm.. I do believe it because honestly Del Duca and Andrea are duds and most Ontarians are not enamored with them. Ford is the only who is even remotely likeable.
338 has the PCs with a potential max of 99 seats right now with Scarborough Southwest being a three way statistical tie between the parties. That could make for an even 100 in a perfect world.
Even myself as an NDP voter since 2006 am considering voting PC. I am not happy with Andrea and do not think she has or will do a good job. I also do not like Del Duca.
The PCs have done alot for my family. The ministry of health has approved life saving drugs for my Grandmother which may not have been approved in other years. Myself, I am using the Ontario Staycation tax credit for a trip this year and getting a nice weekend away in the falls. My father had the License Plate Sticker refund.
That being said, Ford has done more for me and my family than the other 2 parties and I am considering voting for them this year.
adma
Superstar
Somehow, this is making your forecast seem more like personalized wishful think than actual objective assessment. Almost like, I don't know, Doly Begum beat *you* for the party's nomination in SSW somewhere along the way...
Richard White
Senior Member
Actually while I did consider running for the nomination provinically in the mid 2000s that has no bearing on the present. I just have lived in this riding for 30 years and have seen a marked changed this year.
Fun fact: Jack Layton talked me out of running. I was in college at the time and he said the following:
"Richard, you can be voted out just as fast as you were voted in. Don't give up your education for the nomination."
I took it to heart and dropped out.