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2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

Not a good sign for Russia if even the IOC bans you! See: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/feb/28/ioc-ban-russia-and-belarus-fifa-uefa

The International Olympic Committee has recommended that Russian and Belarusian athletes be prevented from competing in international events, paving the way for a complete ban on Russian involvement in global sport.

The news came as further countries – including Wales and Scotland – said they would not compete against Russia in football internationals, and Uefa and Fifa were expected to take further action by the close of the day.
https://www.theguardian.com/footbal...sia-can-continue-bid-to-qualify-for-world-cup
In a lengthy declaration on Monday afternoon, which is expected to set in place a domino effect among other sporting organisations, the IOC said it was acting with “a heavy heart” as it called for a ban on both Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials.

“In order to protect the integrity of global sports competitions and for the safety of all the participants,” the statement said, “the IOC executive board recommends that international sports federations and sports event organisers not invite or allow the participation of Russian and Belarusian athletes and officials in international competitions.”
 
Belarus apparently just amended the non-nuclear statement in their constitution (on a weekend?)
That should speed up what could be called the Slavic Spring of 2022-2025. The Belarusians also want to be Europeans and won’t put up with being involved in a modern day Holodomor. Lukashenko’s going to end up like Ceaușescu.

As for other former Soviet republics, Georgia‘s president can see the future and chose the right side.
President of Georgia expresses solidarity with Ukraine
 
I am wondering if Switzerland was asked to hold off on the adopting the EU sanctions. In the face of every western revenue/banking regulator chasing them, presumably all the Russian oligarchs would have been looking for somewhere safer to stash their billions of ill-gotten money, including that laundered and held for Putin. Where better they might think than the stubbornly neutral Switzerland. So the money starts flowing in and a week later, the door slams shut with Switzerland freezing all the accounts.

Where do Russia’s wealthy keep their money? — The Bell — Eng

"Aside from Cyprus and Latvia, the other most in-demand destinations for Russian money are Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and Malta."
 
Pressure mounting internationally on Russia from every direction. Almost feels like a boa slowly constricting its prey.

Now to strangle the Russian economy to death.
 
Good to know.

As stupid as it seems I'm considering it. My family does have a history of fighting the Russians.

If this is successful, I can see a lot of people getting medals and citizenship
FYI

According to the decree signed by the President of Ukraine on February 27, 2022, the International Territorial Defense Legion of Ukraine has been established, consisting of foreigners who want to take part in repelling attacks by the Russian military. In order to register with the International Territorial Defense Legion, volunteers can apply to their nearest Ukrainian Embassy.

Edit. You also will not need a visa for Ukraine entry.
 
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The noose tightens ...

Turkey has warned both Black Sea and non-Black Sea countries not to pass warships through its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits, reported Reuters.

Turkey foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu spoke on the decision today, reported Turkey’s state news agency Anadolu, saying:

We implemented what Montreux says, and we will do so from now on. There has been no request for passage through the straits until today.
The 1936 Montreux Convention, which Cavusoglu refers to, allows Turkey to restrict naval transit on its straits during wartime, though allowing warships to return to their registered bases.

At least four Russian ships were waiting on Turkey’s decision to cross from the Mediterranean Sea.
 
Pressure mounting internationally on Russia from every direction. Almost feels like a boa slowly constricting its prey.

Now to strangle the Russian economy to death.

Nah it is important to leave an off ramp - the goal isn't to destroy Russia (or intentionally harm the Russian people in the long run - who had suffered enough), the goal is to defang Putin and make sure this won't happen again.

AoD
 

Digital warriors come to Ukraine’s aid, declare cyber war against Russia


Within a day of tanks crossing the border and missiles striking targets, hacker collective Anonymous declared 'cyber war against the Russian government.'​

From link.

As diplomats and national leaders dallied over sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, digital defenders got straight to work.

Within a day of tanks crossing the border and missiles striking targets, hacker collective Anonymous declared “cyber war against the Russian government.” Soon after, the amorphous online collective claimed to have taken down the website of Kremlin-backed TV channel RT and that of a Russian ministry. RT’s website was still down the following morning, the Daily Mail reported. Both were operational at the time of writing. Over the weekend, the Kremlin’s official website as well as Russian television stations were apparently hacked as well.

Ukraine’s government has also called for people to take up digital arms against Russia, with the nation’s hacker underground being enlisted in the fight, Reuters reported Friday. The cyber response comes after Ukrainian government, banking and media websites were taken offline in distributed denial of service attacks. This is not unfamiliar territory for the east European nation — it has borne the brunt of Russian cyber aggression for years.

Unprecedented, though, is the prospect that a global collective of digital warriors may rally around Ukraine to help fend off Moscow’s belligerence. With the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the EU and even the U.S. declining to get involved in the military battle now being waged on Ukraine soil, hackers and digital supporters around the world could become a powerful and visible defender of Ukraine.

Such an offensive could sting President Vladimir Putin far more than he may expect, and have the potential to be far more effective than economic sanctions. While Russian hackers are notoriously good at attacking foreign targets, including the 2020 SolarWinds breach, cyber defense is a lot harder. An offender need only be successful a few times to wreak havoc, but a defender needs to win pretty much all the time. And Russia’s defenses are surely not bullet proof.

The cyber guerrillas for now are fighting fire with fire, knocking important Russian websites offline after Russia did the same to Ukrainian websites, employing a scattershot approach of digital harassment. Hacktivists with Anonymous typically don’t have the same kind of expertise as state-backed cyber forces, who are trained and mobilized to plan incursions on web systems over many months. In contrast, hacktivists are often young and will jump into an online chat room in their spare time to discuss a so-called op, downloading free, do-it-yourself software tools to join with others to, for instance, help take a site offline.

It seems like a sticks and duct-tape exercise but hacktivists have the benefit of scale, particularly when a cause strikes a chord and becomes globally popular. In the past they have managed to cause millions of dollars worth of damage. For instance, when Wikileaks founder Julian Assange was arrested in 2010 and first threatened with extradition, thousands of people coalesced in chat channels as part of “Operation Avenge Assange.” They then followed instructions to download software that would help them attack the websites of large payments providers like PayPal and MasterCard; several participants were later arrested, but most went on with their lives.

Russian digital warfare often aims to sow discord and confusion — think back to Moscow’s disinformation campaign on social media during the 2016 U.S. elections. Anonymous has excelled at creating discord and confusion too, waging cultural battles online by spreading memes and carrying out viral stunts aimed at undermining authority. Having carried out hacks that poked fun at figures from Tom Cruise and the Church of Scientology to Rupert Murdoch, Anonymous’s greatest potential may be in subverting Putin’s standing as an authoritative figure in Russia, a critical issue for the extremely image-conscious leader.

Years of exposure to cyber aggression has also bolstered Ukraine’s resilience, allowing it to get back up and running quickly after the recent incursions. Russia’s digital fortifications may not yet have been fully tested. And should attackers get through, the possibility of bringing down systems that control transport, telecoms, banking, energy and even mining could at the very least disrupt Moscow in the midst of a war, and at worst bring such operations to a halt.

Early signs of what collective action might achieve were seen last month when a Belarusian group called Cyber Partisans targeted state-owned Belarusian Railway in order to disrupt Russian troop movements through the country. There’s already been concerns floated that Russia’s cyber attacks against Ukraine could go global, with the U.S. a likely target.

But the reverse is also true. Cyber warfare could be an effective strategy deployed by national agencies. Rather than put troops on the ground, Washington, through its United States Cyber Command, could get to work trying to knock out power and gas operations, and disrupting communications. Allied governments may choose to acknowledge such action, or deny any involvement.

But with non-government actors like Anonymous, Cyber Partisans and the coalition being built by the Ukraine government also joining the fight, placing blame may not be so easy. And ultimately irrelevant.

Putin started this fight. Perhaps the world’s digital warriors can help end it.
 
Putin is a madman and is only as strong and dangerous as he is because Russia is strong. and dangerous. The only way to defang him is to defang Russia. For the safety of the region and, frankly, the world, Russia and its nuclear armed military must be rendered as weak as a starving kitten. Not to punish it's citizens, but to protect the world.
 
Putin is a madman and is only as strong and dangerous as he is because Russia is strong. and dangerous. The only way to defang him is to defang Russia. For the safety of the region and, frankly, the world, Russia and its nuclear armed military must be rendered as weak as a starving kitten. Not to punish it's citizens, but to protect the world.

We don't have a precedent of a nuclear-capable state being forcibly denuclearized - absolutely zero examples. Russia is not going to do that (and don't blame them for it necessarily, given history) - and any attempt to do so will only lead to desperation and use of said weapons. Important to focus on the current goal and not turn it into an existential threat that could be used as a pretext; but it is also important to articulate and make very clear the consequences of any errant action will be swift, unyielding and proportionate in severity - in other words, perish any notion of entertaining weapons of mass destruction in this conflict without certain, severe and immediate consequence.

AoD
 
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They don't need to use nukes - they could have used their own fuel-air bombs (in fact, thermobaric weapons are amongst the arsenal as part of this buildup), which is as destructive at the low end and produces no fallout (of the radioactive, nevermind the political kind). Everyone has nukes, nobody dares to use them other than as a psychological weapon. Yes, we know Russia has them - and if they use it, his Rodina will be ash - as it has been the case for the past 70 years. I don't think that even China or India can be silent if he pulls that trick.

AoD
You're right, and one military observer believes that the their thermobaric weapons are under that same command I saw a (I think) Twitter post of an explosion that observers felt could either be either thermobaric or a direct hit on an ammunition dump.
Yup, this is the difference that we need to keep in mind about modern warfare, especially if we find ourselves in global conflicts with Russia or China.

It's not like the old days where North America was relatively insulated from an attack simply due to our geography.

Obviously, a land invasion in NA remains incredibly unlikely no matter the circumstances, but many countries, including Russia have the ability to bomb us from halfway around the world. There is obviously still strategic value to controlling certain locations, but in terms of missle and bombing capability, being able to stage missiles close to certain countries (a la Cuban missile crisis) is much less relevant.

To that end, the recent referendum in Belarus to allow nukes is not a strategic move but rather one based on intimidation and scare tactics.
Yes an no. So-called tactical or 'battlefield nuclear weapons are relatively short range and lower yield.
 
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