2022/24 Russian-Ukrainian War

[W. K. Lis]

Does it include the pre-war purges by Stalin? /s

AoD

Very likely excluding the purges. Though even some are quitting (or arrested) Putin's administration on their own.

Putin’s Aide Chubais Resigns–Said To Flee Russia Over Opposition To Ukraine Invasion​

From link for an example.

Anatoly Chubais, a high-ranking Russian official who led the country’s post-Soviet economic reforms, has resigned from his post and fled the country in opposition to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, multiple news outlets reported Wednesday, making him the first high-level figure to officially distance himself from the Kremlin.

“Anatoly Chubais left Russia only out of fear for his own skin and his own money,” Kira Yarmysh, spokesperson for Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny, tweeted

Moscow has ratcheted up pressure on domestic opponents of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Putin said last week that the Russian public “will always be able to distinguish true patriots from scum and traitors.” He went on to warn that he would take action against critics on grounds Russia would be strengthened by what he called “necessary self-purification.” Russian police have arrested around 15,000 people for protesting the invasion of Ukraine, according to the Russian human rights organization OVD-Info.

 

[kEiThZ]

This war is over in a few weeks. Ukraine will prevail. The only question now is whether we end up with status quo ante or whether Ukraine can get some gains.

 

[love0715]

This war is over in a few weeks. Ukraine will prevail. The only question now is whether we end up with status quo ante or whether Ukraine can get some gains.

i surely hope you are right, but insane dictator like Putin, he doesn't look like he gonna simply ask troops leave Ukraine, i am worried he will do something crazy

 

[kEiThZ]

i surely hope you are right, but insane dictator like Putin, he doesn't look like he gonna simply ask troops leave Ukraine, i am worried he will do something crazy

He is likely to escalate. Probably will use chemical weapons. He's trying to draw NATO into the war. But that doesn't change the outcome.

 

[afransen]

He is likely to escalate. Probably will use chemical weapons. He's trying to draw NATO into the war. But that doesn't change the outcome.

Isn't it kind of crazy to draw NATO in? Where does NATO involvement end--bombing Moscow?

 

[Towered]

This war is over in a few weeks. Ukraine will prevail. The only question now is whether we end up with status quo ante or whether Ukraine can get some gains.

Bold claim, though there are some encouraging signs for the good guys. What's your assessment?

 

[Towered]

He is likely to escalate. Probably will use chemical weapons. He's trying to draw NATO into the war. But that doesn't change the outcome.

Why would he want to draw them in? His goal is to restore the empire, not get Russia destroyed.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

Isn't it kind of crazy to draw NATO in? Where does NATO involvement end--bombing Moscow?

Why would he want to draw them in? His goal is to restore the empire, not get Russia destroyed.

He is trying to turn this from some poorly planned and executed adventurism (rapidly devolving into a career ending failure) into part II of the Great Patriotic War. The goal of NATO is to deny him that while continue to turn this conflict into a meatgrinder.

AoD

 

[Towered]

He is trying to turn this from some poorly planned and executed adventurism (rapidly devolving into a career ending failure) into part II of the Great Patriotic War. The goal of NATO is to deny him that while continue to turn this conflict into a meatgrinder.

AoD

Good luck convincing millions of ordinary Russians that their very existence is at stake...

 

[W. K. Lis]

Statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine on the forced deportation of residents of Mariupol by Russia​

From link.

The Russian Federation has launched a new phase of terror against the city of Mariupol. Residents who survived Russian bombing and artillery shelling are now being forcibly deported to Russia.

15,000 residents of the Left Bank district of Mariupol are in grave danger. The Russian occupiers are forcing them to move to Russia. The invaders confiscate people's passports and other identity documents.

According to the information available, the Russian army has forcibly deported about 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russian filtration camps in order to use them as hostages and put more political pressure on Ukraine.

At the same time, the Russian armed forces are firing on evacuation columns trying to leave Mariupol for the territory of Ukraine free from Russian occupation. Russian troops continue to hold in detention a humanitarian convoy of buses that arrived a few days ago from Zaporizhia to take people from Mariupol.

Such actions by Russia are a gross violation of the laws and customs of war, the norms of international humanitarian law, in particular the Geneva Conventions of 1949 and Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions.

We call on the world leaders gathered in Brussels today for the NATO, Group of Seven and EU summits to take urgent action to save the lives of the residents of Mariupol and other Ukrainian cities who have found themselves in an inhumane siege by the Russian army.

The international community must impose new tough sanctions on Russia to stop its deadly military machine, as well as cut off all business ties with Russian companies to stop funding Russia's war against Ukraine.

Note to self. Photocopy passports and other documents onto your smartphone, laptops, and relatives for safekeeping. Maybe the cloud as a last resort.

 

[kEiThZ]

Why would he want to draw them in? His goal is to restore the empire, not get Russia destroyed.

Russians might forgive a loss to NATO. They will never forgive him for losing to Ukraine.

Keep in mind that a whole lot of Putin's own propaganda emphasize the racial and cultural superiority of ethnic Russians/Orthodox Christians. Ukrainians are portrayed as lesser Slavs.

So what does it say, if he gets his ass kicked by Ukrainians?

 

[kEiThZ]

Bold claim, though there are some encouraging signs for the good guys. What's your assessment?

The Russians are incurring > 1000/day in KIA and WIA. These were loss rates last seen in WWII. The Ukrainians are taking losses. But they seem to be a third or less. That's personnel losses. The vehicle losses are completely disproportionate. Ukraine actually has more armoured vehicles now than when they started the war, thanks to surrendered and abandoned Russian equipment. This isn't Ukrainian propaganda. These are the assessments of the US and the UK Defence Intelligence authorities.

The asymmetry in favour of Ukraine is beyond all prior estimates. The Russians can't sustain this. And the greater the losses, the relatively stronger the Ukrainians get. There's a certain tipping point at which losses will accelerate for the Russians. We might see that in a week or two if their logistics collapses due to Ukrainian attacks.

Russia could resort to mass mobilization to put in enough resources to win. But that takes time. And it's highly likely to cause revolts at home. Nothing in Ukraine is worth that much to Putin. He'll withdraw before making that call.

 

[AlvinofDiaspar]

The Russians are incurring > 1000/day in KIA and WIA. These were loss rates last seen in WWII. The Ukrainians are taking losses. But they seem to be a third or less. That's personnel losses. The vehicle losses are completely disproportionate. Ukraine actually has more armoured vehicles now than when they started the war, thanks to surrendered and abandoned Russian equipment. This isn't Ukrainian propaganda. These are the assessments of the US and the UK Defence Intelligence authorities.

The asymmetry in favour of Ukraine is beyond all prior estimates. The Russians can't sustain this. And the greater the losses, the relatively stronger the Ukrainians get. There's a certain tipping point at which losses will accelerate for the Russians. We might see that in a week or two if their logistics collapses due to Ukrainian attacks.

Russia could resort to mass mobilization to put in enough resources to win. But that takes time. And it's highly likely to cause revolts at home. Nothing in Ukraine is worth that much to Putin. He'll withdraw before making that call.

There are also reports of some advanced electronic warfare equipment being abandoned on the battlefield and making their way to the West for analysis.

As to the course of the war, Putin is already pivoting from regime change to consolidating at the Donbas/east Ukraine.

AoD

 

[W. K. Lis]

Putin is Stalin Version 2...

 

[Lone Primate]

I'd sure love it if Putin could see it's not worth the trouble and pull back, but I don't think he will, for a lot of reasons. The first is, I don't think this guy plays by the rules the rest of us expect. He's essentially a czar, above the constraints of ordinary decent human beings. He's also paranoid apparatchik who looks around him and thinks that he can't afford to lose or be seen to be weak. Russia hasn't been through anything like Ukraine, but it has been through a lot in the past few weeks and they will not be pleased if that turns out to all have been for nothing. Putin simply can't afford for people to think he put them through all that for nothing. Apparently he obsesses over what happened to Gaddafi. Look at the setbacks. He wanted to roll back NATO's frontiers; he's made the alliance tighter than I can remember it being since I was in high school. He wanted to be a hero in Ukraine; he's essentially Hitler. He wanted Ukrainians to turn back to Russia as their pole star; now they look to the EU more than ever. And thousands of young Russian men are suddenly dead. For those reasons, I really don't think he's going to be able to pull back. I think he's going to double down and hope for a win.

I think the reason we're all so shocked is, really, what was there to gain? Russians already enjoy the geographically-largest country in the world. They took back Crimea. They could easily have just chipped off those couple of eastern regions, declared them "independent" and essentially run them de facto. Fill Crimea with troops and tell Ukraine in no uncertain terms not to join the EU or NATO and you pretty much secure the place without firing a shot. It's hard to see what he hoped to achieve with this mess he couldn't have managed in subtler ways that would have made him look at least as good back home as he does right now.