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2019 Canadian Federal Election

Someone is spending a lot of cash spreading fake stories about immigrants...

"Canada's Prime Minister begs Nigeria President for one million immigrants," reads the headline on an article published in April on the website CBTV.
The article claims that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had announced the creation of a new employment and migration program for immigrants.

But the program doesn't exist. Trudeau never had any such discussions with the president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari.

The fabricated story has been shared about 2,600 times and drew negative reactions from the Yellow Vests Canada Facebook group, which is attached to the Canadian arm of the Yellow Vests, a mass movement of protests in France against taxation and high gas prices.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/false-news-stories-trudeau-begs-immigrants-1.5174319
 
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adma said:
You're *really* fond of using "current seat projections" as the be-all and end-all. To repeat, that's like figuring oneself out to be a geographic and navigational expert simply because one knows how to use their talking GPS. Whereas those of us who're *truly* map-literate don't need to be martyr to such tools as a crutch, and know enough to allow for random chance and backroad diversions--from here to e-day is more than just a direct point-A-to-point-B.

Personally, I'd rather pore through past poll-by-poll, riding-by-riding stats to get a preliminary feel for the lay of the electoral land--plenty of maps where one can do so here
It may be "past data"--but hey, just like maps vs talking GPS. Map literacy involves having and nurturing a preliminary grasp of preexisting conditions.

Talking GPS martyrdom denies such "preliminary grasp" is necessary, because, you know, Siri will take you there. It's not about the past, but strictly, bluntly, about the real-time present and future, you don't need to engage to anything other than where Siri is guiding you to.

Translation: Hopkins123 is overestimating his own stunted worldview and projecting it onto others--and my metaphorical example *literalizes* the "stunted worldview" concept...
Click to expand...

All I'm saying is that it's too premature to assume that the Conservatives are done for thanks to Doug Ford in light of poll after poll showing they'll gain seats in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals. 338Canada is just an aggregate but they've accurately predicted the outcome of several recent elections, so forgive me if you think that I'm putting too much stock into their projections. In the absence of any new major news event over the summer; do you really think the Tories will continue to trend downwards or the Liberals resurge from the ashes significantly?
 
Jasmine18 said:
But you think Trudeau is gonna keep all the votes from 2015 just because of Doug Ford and I dont think you realize how much of a shine Trudeau has lost.

Ford is not gonna destroy the Tories in Ontario, he would limit them..
Click to expand...
How would Ford compare to Trudeau? I imagine that few people like both, and more like neither. But maybe they are comparable.

In the last election, both were the least qualified and least intelligent of the 4 leaders.
They are both more populist than noted for hard work or sound policies.
Both have had major gaffs.
Both have had ok economies - with Canada only slipping slightly to 2nd in G7, while Ontario climbing slightly to top of Provinces - and both very thankful of the booming economy created by Trump.

I'd say the biggest differences were;
At the time of the election, Trudeau was an obvious last choice due to the strong incumbent PM, and a very capable opposition leader. With Ford, both the sitting premier and third party leader had been proven to be quite poor. Thus, the change from Harper to Trudeau was a huge negative, while Wynne to Ford was a medium sized positive. The other difference being the 3 year honeymoon the press gave Trudeau and the 3 month honeymoon given to Ford.
 
steveintoronto said:
Poll suggests Liberals have started to recover from damaging SNC-Lavalin affair

Poll suggests Liberals have started to recover from damaging SNC-Lavalin affair

The Leger poll suggests the Liberals have closed the gap slightly with the front-running Conservatives since April and dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government has eased
www.theglobeandmail.com www.theglobeandmail.com
Click to expand...
Polls suggest Liberals are at lowest point since last election.
newsinteractives.cbc.ca

CBC News Canada Poll Tracker

The CBC News Poll Tracker is your guide to following the polls in the 2019 Canadian federal election.
newsinteractives.cbc.ca newsinteractives.cbc.ca
 
Hopkins123 said:
All I'm saying is that it's too premature to assume that the Conservatives are done for thanks to Doug Ford in light of poll after poll showing they'll gain seats in Ontario at the expense of the Liberals. 338Canada is just an aggregate but they've accurately predicted the outcome of several recent elections, so forgive me if you think that I'm putting too much stock into their projections. In the absence of any new major news event over the summer; do you really think the Tories will continue to trend downwards or the Liberals resurge from the ashes significantly?
Click to expand...

I'm not predicting in either direction, I'm only allowing for possibilities in all directions. And I'm not counting on any such "absence of any new major news event over the summer"; nor am I counting on the actual writ period being static from beginning to end.

Thus, I *can* see the Conservatives winning. But I also *can* see the Liberals winning.
 
^And I can see a minority either way, such that the Greens/Independents are the tale (sic) that dogs the Whig with a sTory to tell.
 
tiffer24 said:
Someone is spending a lot of cash spreading fake stories about immigrants...

"Canada's Prime Minister begs Nigeria President for one million immigrants," reads the headline on an article published in April on the website CBTV.
The article claims that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had announced the creation of a new employment and migration program for immigrants.

But the program doesn't exist. Trudeau never had any such discussions with the president of Nigeria, Muhammadu Buhari.

The fabricated story has been shared about 2,600 times and drew negative reactions from the Yellow Vests Canada Facebook group, which is attached to the Canadian arm of the Yellow Vests, a mass movement of protests in France against taxation and high gas prices.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/false-news-stories-trudeau-begs-immigrants-1.5174319
Click to expand...
Liberals should be concerned that ANYONE would legitimately believe the story. Shows how bad their brand is some areas.
 
In the end, no matter whom *we*, ourselves, individually, are supporting, can we not agree at this point that all sides have certain handicaps (whether from within or from without) that may (or may not) come to the fore and define what may happen come e-day?

For the record, I don't see anything that carries the apparent "inevitability" of something like, say, Tony Blair going into 1997.
 
Thorns_Embrace said:
Liberals should be concerned that ANYONE would legitimately believe the story. Shows how bad their brand is some areas.
Click to expand...

I think it's more of a reflection on the sad state of some people's lack of ability to think critically and to reason.

Just saying.

Anyone who believed that is either psychologically afflicted or intellectually stunted. Brain damage? Poor education? Laziness? Something in the water? Evolution failing?* All of the above?


*-- Trick question. It's quite obvious that evolution is failing insofar as some of the classically least likely candidates for survival are thriving with all the aid-to-the-useless trappings of modern life. Or is that the logical conclusion of humanity's evolution: survival of the all, regardless of fitness or failings? Where's Darwin? He has some updating to do.
 
And also, a lot of people simply aren't *invested* enough in the topic to verify whether it's fake or not.

And re how bad the Liberal brand is "in some areas": let's not act like the social media archipelago surrounding Yellow Vests Canada is any kind of mass-galvanizing critical mass, or that they're the sort who would have attached to the Liberal brand in the past. Indeed, when has the Liberal brand *not* been bad "in some areas"? Chretien won his majorities with around 60% of voters voting against him, after all.
 
adma said:
And still don't count out the NDP as part of the equation, either.
Click to expand...
This is an interesting point. I'll be surprised if the NDP remains intact as is for the next federal election. That being said, in a minority win by the Libs or Cons, for the same reason I see the Greens and independents potentially being the tail that wags the dog, the same applies to whatever form the remains of the NDP presents itself as. Those seats, if not the integral party, can and would be part of a voting bloc (formal or not) that make or break the winning minority gov't.

We might have a very interesting result coming up, and one that changes the the stranglehold of formal parties on the Hill. The UK's example continues to proceed in that direction.

Are we as predisposed to this? It's just a matter of time...
 
Thing is I feel deep down Justin Trudeau would want fully open borders with illegals coming en masse or have far higher legal immigration but knows that would be political suicide.

Thats why he has backtracked from his initial messaging on these issues from 2015 as the mood has changed in the country.
 
Jasmine18 said:
Thing is I feel deep down Justin Trudeau would want fully open borders with illegals coming en masse or have far higher legal immigration
Click to expand...
I have forwarded your concerns to Zontar on the planet Glug. We had our invasio....emigration plan all ready, complete with disguises to fit right into the Brampton diaspora. We are already among you.
 
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